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January Banter 2020


George BM
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s been 17 years since there was a season without a warning level snowfall up here.  The longtime average here is 1 skunk year about every 12 years. So we’re due...

I will track every possible threat until the last flake regardless. Just saying the fact we’re due up here for a total skunk year has been in the back of my mind. 

How in the flippity flop-a-dippery dop did you miss out on PDII and all the other warning-level snows that happened that winter?! Did you get fringed to the underworld or something? ;)

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7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

Actually the system this weekend the models had as a huge cutter. The euro now has it over NJ. Funny looking cutter from 5 days ago 

I'm only referring to the hemispheric longwave pattern. Not discrete stuff as that's rarely if ever resolved until inside of 5 days. Global ens, euro weeklies, and even the cfs have absolutely destroyed the longwave pattern from weeks away. 

That trend better end soon because the 2 week outlook is abysmal and unwavering.

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Just now, Mersky said:

No doubt mid January is toast. No argument there. I simply am not on the winter is toast bandwagon. 

I only look 2-3 weeks tops down the line so my long range posts are always within that context. Feb could be record breaking. 

I'd like one of these western troughs to close off and turn into midwest bomb. That's prob the only fast way out of this mess. Wave breaks can be violent and not well predicted in advance. Otherwise the way out is going to be a long drawn out process that will test even the most patient weenies on the planet

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm only referring to the hemispheric longwave pattern. Not discrete stuff as that's rarely if ever resolved until inside of 5 days. Global ens, euro weeklies, and even the cfs have absolutely destroyed the longwave pattern from weeks away. 

That trend better end soon because the 2 week outlook is abysmal and unwavering.

I've already abandoned January, tbh.  I mean, I'm not saying we will get nothing, but I'm already mentally there.  I'm on to having hopes for a Feb rescue.  k

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I've already abandoned January, tbh.  I mean, I'm not saying we will get nothing, but I'm already mentally there.  I'm on to having hopes for a Feb rescue.  k

It is what it is. We go through far more disasters than epic stretches so we're seasoned vets at enduring long duration nails on chalkboards. 

We can pull off a fluke in some of the worst looking setups so there's always longshot hope. Sustained cold with multiple winter wx chances isn't happening anytime soon so we'll have lots of time for meltdowns, infighting, and hope/denial cycles. 

On another topic... I did a 12 mile trail ride on my bike yesterday. Loved it but it was almost hot. Lol. 

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I try to see the bright side. I LOATHE Spring and Summer. So although I'm super bummed with no cold and snow, I'm still very pleased it's still Winter and not those other seasons. 

Also stats guys, anyone know how many winters we've been essentially shut out going into February and still wound up with solid numbers? 

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

What happened to the "models can't get anything right beyond 5 days" crowd? Haven't heard much about that lately. Is it because models have been remarkably accurate this year?

I’ll give you that they got this right. I’m not ready to jump on the whatever the eps says is going to happen train just yet. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll give you that they got this right. I’m not ready to jump on the whatever the eps says is going to happen train just yet. 

All global ens look identical d15. I'm inclined to strongly believe we're going to fight a -pna with no blocking for at least 2 weeks. More likely 3 weeks. We can reassess daily like always. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

All global ens look identical d15. I'm inclined to strongly believe we're going to fight a -pna with no blocking for at least 2 weeks. More likely 3 weeks. We can reassess daily like always. 

Thank god now I can rest easy knowing there's not gonna be any storms to track and lose sleep over getting only 1 inch instead of a HECS

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37 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

I try to see the bright side. I LOATHE Spring and Summer. So although I'm super bummed with no cold and snow, I'm still very pleased it's still Winter and not those other seasons. 

Also stats guys, anyone know how many winters we've been essentially shut out going into February and still wound up with solid numbers? 

Without going into any details on any one specific winter here are a few. Some waited until March 

33-34

36-37

55-56? not sure on this year

57-58 

59-60 mostly in March 

65-66 last week of January

78-79

82-83 1 big storm. 

85-86 not great but a couple of late February storms were decent.

86-87 shutout until Jan. 22nd

92-93

98-99 not great but suburbs did ok in March 

99-2000 shutout until the 3rd week of January then a great 12 day stretch.

2006-2007

2014-2015

a lot of those years did feature some snow in December so take this with a grain of salt. I'm sure there are others as well.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All global ens look identical d15. I'm inclined to strongly believe we're going to fight a -pna with no blocking for at least 2 weeks. More likely 3 weeks. We can reassess daily like always. 

Reassess is different than saying 4 times a day how shitty it looks and pounding the nail. That was what probably annoys me not that I don't believe it or question it but that you can only hear it so many times before you start wondering what the motivation is behind it. To me some are using their model reading skills to hide behind their incessant whining about the pattern. It's like they are an educated Ji only saying the same thing. 

This weather blows for winter but whatever...I can't change it so I find other things to make me smile and enjoy life.

 

Happy New Year!!

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Reassess is different than saying 4 times a day how shitty it looks and pounding the nail. That was what probably annoys me not that I don't believe it or question it but that you can only hear it so many times before you start wondering what the motivation is behind it. To me some are using their model reading skills to hide behind their incessant whining about the pattern. It's like they are an educated Ji only saying the same thing. 

This weather blows for winter but whatever...I can't change it so I find other things to make me smile and enjoy life.

 

Happy New Year!!

Lol- yea, it can become quite tiring quickly. It's why I haven't been posting much in the lr thread. We usually get a decent period every winter and I do beleive this year will be no different. Would be nice if our good period hits when it matters instead of the irrelevant late March -NAO. 

Have to see how things are looking mid month but for right now the odds of Feb being better than Jan are really high.

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On 12/31/2019 at 10:07 AM, WxUSAF said:

Looks like ignoring it and is back (continuing?) with the “it was cold today in Siberia!  Take THAT libz!”

He thinks we are completely fooked. He just wont say that until March.  But if you read between the lines... 

i was morbidly curious, and hopes to see one of his epic melt downs, so I just skimmed through his blog posts from the last 24 hours  

He admits he didn’t see the mjo phase 4/5 coming.  He says snow next week will be north of Mason Dixon. He says big warmup eastern ridge coming. He admits the warm water near maritime continent (I mentioned the other day) is a big issue. He says cold might press late January and early February before mjo goes back into warm phases but without cold phase mjo help (he doesn’t expect that given the sst look there) the cold won’t overwhelm but press over the SE ridge. he says that will help New England. Then he even leaves an escape hatch that “what could kill the whole winter with that warm water north of Australia is if the  mjo cycles right back into warm phases like the euro shows”. 

Basically he thinks are doomed he just won’t ever say that because he needs people to keep paying attention every day. He will talk about who isn’t screwed in times like these. But if you know what it means you can read between the lines easily. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

What happened to the "models can't get anything right beyond 5 days" crowd? Haven't heard much about that lately. Is it because models have been remarkably accurate this year?

You forgot to add that your post was sponsored by the Euro.  :p

There’s been plenty of instances that the models shifted looks in the MR this winter.  I guess I’m in the “crowd” that reminds people that looks can change from a D15 smoothed out mean.  Yes, models have gotten better over time but I don’t take a D15 look as 100% set in stone since it never is.  

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