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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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I'm the first post in 3 days! Wow, that's sad:o Looks like no more 30s after tomorrow, highs all in the 60 and lows in the upper 40s/50s. Hopefully Spring will not get hot for awhile. Looks like the rainy pattern contiues for the next two weeks though.  

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I'm the first post in 3 days! Wow, that's sad:o Looks like no more 30s after tomorrow, highs all in the 60 and lows in the upper 40s/50s. Hopefully Spring will not get hot for awhile. Looks like the rainy pattern contiues for the next two weeks though.  

That's a good thing. Keeps the yellow pollen down.

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On 3/19/2020 at 7:02 PM, SENC said:

70's & 80s turning on the AC? ..  WUT!

Actually I refuse to turn mine on for now,  but one could easily do so to keep the inside heat at bay. 

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Mid and upper 90s possible for my area after Wednesday. 

Sure hope we don't get a repeat of last May this early in the season. 98-102.

Still patiently waiting for the rainy season to get into gear.

Currently near 90.

Leaves are falling hella bad. 

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17 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Give me heat and humidity I dont care as long as it slows this virus down

No real signs of that.

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

Australia and Florida beg to differ

Florida has barely started testing. Australia is just getting started.  Time will tell.

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Without a vaccine or other treatment a slow down in the summer if any will be met with a second wave in the fall.  How this plays out is very uncertain and we are forced to just roll with it for now.  I hope you all are safe and virus free.

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

Florida has barely started testing. Australia is just getting started.  Time will tell.

I should have been more clear. The fact that they have many cases already seems to preclude the "Warm air will stop it  mentality"

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48 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I should have been more clear. The fact that they have many cases already seems to preclude the "Warm air will stop it  mentality"

I think the warm air slows it down a bit, simply because UV light burns it off of outside surfaces and people are more inclined to naturally be distant from each other due to the nicer weather.

Regardless right now I think we have a better chance of getting sick from these wild temperature swings, to go from 89 on Saturday, 61 yesterday and 59 right now is wild. Then Friday & Saturday we're right back at it making a run at 90.

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22 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I think the warm air slows it down a bit, simply because UV light burns it off of outside surfaces and people are more inclined to naturally be distant from each other due to the nicer weather.

Regardless right now I think we have a better chance of getting sick from these wild temperature swings, to go from 89 on Saturday, 61 yesterday and 59 right now is wild. Then Friday & Saturday we're right back at it making a run at 90.

https://factcheck.afp.com/health-experts-refute-misleading-claim-coronavirus-disinfectants

Distance absolutely, UV light not so much. Not enough intensity.

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This weather cannot make up its mind. Had all the windows open last night, put a little bit of a chill in the house when I woke up. 

Then tomorrow thru Sunday we'll have the AC on full blast

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Caught a little blurb on the local weather at noontime. Less air traffic is leading to less data for model input, which in turn is leading to less accurate long range model output.

.

On another note, I'm curious what, if any impact (short or long range), will drastically lower vehicle traffic, closed factories, emissions, etc.  have on the weather?

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A noticeably cooler period of weather upcoming for Charleston. I cannot believe how cool the upcoming week will be after constantly breaking 80 the last few weeks consistently. 62 for a high on Wednesday and then 70s for the foreseeable future

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

A noticeably cooler period of weather upcoming for Charleston. I cannot believe how cool the upcoming week will be after constantly breaking 80 the last few weeks consistently. 62 for a high on Wednesday and then 70s for the foreseeable future

Had a high of 77 on Saturday here in Wolf.  The warmest summer temperature I've had since moving here three years ago is 78.7, so you could say Satuday was summer like.  

 

And now I have snow in the NWS forecast tomorrow night into Wednesday.  Gotta love spring!

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Looking like an extended dry period. I know those in the western part of the state will welcome it but it’s been pretty dry in the central part of the state. Saw some fire weather discussion from NWS. Thankfully at my farm in Franklin county the last rain overperformed and we got over an inch but my house in Raleigh saw less than half an inch. Nothing inspires confidence in the modeling that we’ll see that in the next 10 days. 

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Gotta love the models for this weekend. GFS is dry, no storm to be found. Euro has a potential high-end severe threat from the deep south to the Carolinas. From NWS Raleigh "The only thing the models agree on is to disagree" (paraphrased) 

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The discussion is like that from GSP as well!  It will hopefully not stick with confusing patterns for the models for the remainder of the springtime. Looking at the current overview, the additional layers of complexity are evident! 

1214750144_COD-GOES-East-global-northernhemi_08.20200406.163020-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.dcecec4b2d167e5a01a550194b133f54.gif

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 306 AM EDT Monday: You would be hard-pressed to find a fcst
with bigger differences between the model guidance out on days
5-7 than what we are presented with this morning. Before we get to
that, we still have decent agreement for Thursday with a cold front
running up against the mtns early in the day, warranting a chance
over the mtns for the first half of the day. The guidance agrees the
front will weaken and cross the rest of the fcst area dry in the
afternoon, but not early enough to keep temps from making it back
into the lower 80s over the Piedmont regions. The cooler air will
finally make it into the region for Friday, with temps returning
to normal, or maybe slightly below normal. From that point onward,
though, the operational models diverge wildly and significantly
as we get into next weekend, with both models sticking to their
guns. In the near corner we have the GFS which has dry sfc high
pressure moving slowly over the southeast and Carolinas with zonal
flow aloft and a srn stream system hanging back over nrn Mexico.
In the far corner we have the ECMWF with a progressive srn stream
system that appears to feed on a tropical connection to develop
widespread heavy rain and possible flash flooding associated with
low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians. Wow. Needless
to say, confidence is low. In this situation, we prefer to stick
close to the previous fcst, the guidance from WPC, and the model
blends until a consensus starts to form, so we will keep a chance of
rain with temps near normal, which may seem unpalatable, but right
now there are no good, safe bets. We look forward to a resolution.

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