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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yea, 2/1 snow ratios for someone in the mountains too...

Here in the foothills the extracted 12Z GFS data has great 925/850 before, during (however) rises above and torches around 5 degree and back to below 0 as the moisture leaves....

Total of 1:04" 

So close 

 

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It does have our storm the GFS is showing and is another closer call but rain for most

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma (2).png

Yep, the real cold is still locked up in Canada during this time.  If the GFS is to be trusted, it shows a pretty good push of cold air south from Canada but not until the after this storm has passed.  Still, something to keep an eye on as well as the following week (1st week of Feb.) with cold on the move.

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14 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Yep, the real cold is still locked up in Canada during this time.  If the GFS is to be trusted, it shows a pretty good push of cold air south from Canada but not until the after this storm has passed.  Still, something to keep an eye on as well as the following week (1st week of Feb.) with cold on the move.

Go figure, :facepalm:

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Can someone explain what the CFS model is? It’s showing big snow in roughly 280 to 300. Yes I am a desperate weenie but trying to learn what this model even does 

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48 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Can someone explain what the CFS model is? It’s showing big snow in roughly 280 to 300. Yes I am a desperate weenie but trying to learn what this model even does 

Basically, just disregard 

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Can someone explain what the CFS model is? It’s showing big snow in roughly 280 to 300. Yes I am a desperate weenie but trying to learn what this model even does 



Climate Forecast System (CFS)

An animation of CFSR global atmospheric precipitable water for March 1–15, 1993, in 12-hourly intervals
An animated image of CFSR global atmospheric precipitable water for March 1–15, 1993, in 12-hourly intervals. (One-hourly CFSR data was down-sampled to every 12 hours to keep image size down.) This image was produced with the Grid Analysis and Display System and ImageMagick.
The Climate Forecast System (CFS) is a model representing the global interaction between Earth's oceans, land, and atmosphere. Produced by several dozen scientists under guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), this model offers hourly data with a horizontal resolution down to one-half of a degree (approximately 56 km) around Earth for many variables. CFS uses the latest scientific approaches for taking in, or assimilating, observations from data sources including surface observations, upper air balloon observations, aircraft observations, and satellite observations.”


https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/climate-forecast-system-version2-cfsv2


.

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3km nam not looking good this weekend. For upslope snow for the mountains. Looks like tstorms/squall line for SC,NC,Va.

 

Not liking the looks. Summer maybe dry.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

3km nam not looking good this weekend. For upslope snow for the mountains. Looks like tstorms/squall line for SC,NC,Va.nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

The Upslope part that we are eyeing doesnt start til Sunday.

 

*edit: Saturday evening into sunday.

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On 1/21/2020 at 2:35 PM, Lookout said:

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to  resort to that.

I guess the next sad excuse/fail for  winter weather.... is there  could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting  mid to upper 30s rain slams us. :weep:

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from  around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

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17 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from  around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

Yes, any non liquid outside of favored areas should be lucky to see anything. 

 

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2/1 still has potential per 12z GFS. The track is way too far inland, but there is a high in the Maine area and a robust storm cutting across the SE. On the bright side, the storm doesn't cut west of the Apps, which is a change of pace already. 

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180hr icon appears to be setting up for a phasing trough that produces a gulf monster with hp locked in over New England. Cold air is marginal though. 

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Ensembles 19 threw down one hell of a haymaker... Large portion from Texas to Both Carolinas getting 5"+ from the 6th-8th (haven't seem that in weeks)

Shorter term (the 1st), only 3/20 ensembles have snow for NC/SC outside the mountains

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Ensembles 19 threw down one hell of a haymaker... Large portion from Texas to Both Carolinas getting 5"+ from the 6th-8th (haven't seem that in weeks)

Shorter term (the 1st), only 3/20 ensembles have snow for NC/SC outside the mountains

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

wishing your life away 10 days at a time.

 

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