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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I feel like some of us are starting to cherry pick the ens means with the best pattern look and trying to find a reason why it will work out. But the fact of the matter is it's a see-saw between the models.  Ens means A and B look hopeful 14 days out while C is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days and ens means B and C look like a way out at day 14 but ens A is a hot mess. Fast forward 2 days ens A and C look promising starting in 14 days but ens B backed down. It's an every 2 days switcheroo. 

Fact of the matter is, the good looks are still 2 weeks out regardless which ens may have the better idea. The issue is these looks arent stepping up in time and that is a problem. If we are going to score we need to find windows in this pattern....like tomorrow for example....and perhaps another centered around the 17th. Maybe when things get convoluted towards the end of the season we can luck into a warning type system. With the snow coverage in the N Hemi diminishing already, that doesnt give me the warm fuzzies either.

Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick is legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. 

Thank you 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick is legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. 

Yeah, the Pacific red blob of death is muted.  Still a ++AO but better overall look for sure   

 

74E0939E-A045-4C18-8785-8118F83ABCED.png

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Just now, Ji said:

best run of EPS in day..trough in east...im back in...till 00z

EPS has been picking up a window in the 17th-20th range for a few days. 12z is the best run yet. You can't expect any type of majority or consensus d10+. There's enough decent storms under the hood this run and not just nickle/dimes to be encouraged for 12 hours. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Before you check out for 4 weeks. Check out the EPS d10-15. Very nice shift with the longwave pattern and a nice uptick is legit storms down the line. Very good run and speeds up getting rid of the SE ridge/western trough. 

Dude it almost worked. 

:facepalm:

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude it almost worked. 

:facepalm:

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. 

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24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. 

We take nickles and dimes and run. We're in the food stamp line Chill.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Sounds like you think the GEFS is right then and that's fine. But there is no doubt a model war going on with the consensus (GEPS/EPS) leaning towards knocking down the SE ridge and getting rid of the western trough inside of 2 weeks. There is reason to doubt a "treadmill" of SER/-PNA for weeks on end. 

Honestly,  I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Honestly,  I'm not sure quite what to think right now. I dont buy the GEFS....that has been changing quite a bit run to run. Blend of GEPS/EPS seems reasonable. If anything the pattern evolution might be getting rushed on the EPS. This is 3 days or so now for the EPS signal so there's that. Let's move it closer in time and we could be onto something.

 

EPS could be too fast or it could be seeing things more clearly. We had a couple days of good/bad run over run recently but the last 3 runs have been pretty promising honestly. And the trend has been for the better. I do know this is by FAR the  busiest D10-15 meteogram for my yard all winter. There's not even a close second because much of the d10-15 has been void of anything good irt snowfall all winter. I'll just hug this for now:

 

1webCNJ.jpg

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There are 2 things the EPS is trending towards that can salvage a portion of Jan. 1) is the progression of reducing the nasty -PNA/Aleutian ridge. That has been speeding up with the GEPS/EPS and the GEFS is being stubborn. 2) is the scand ridge pushing into Greenland. That's compressing heights to our NE in the Atl and creating confluence and lower heights in our area. This is very important. If the EPS is totally wrong about the scand ridge then we're still facing some SER issues and we'll need the trough axis (assuming there even is one) in a perfect location. 

Here's the run over run h5 comparison. Looking better in the right places. Still a hurry up and wait situation though. lol

RbYXco8.jpg

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Tropical forcing progression supports the evolution of the Pac ridge like what the GEPS shows. The current MJO wave should progress toward the dateline which are cold phases for us. This pattern shown by Ventrice supports a cold eastern conus. Especially if the forcing NE of Australia is centered nearer or just east of the dateline.

 

According to Eric Webb  courtesy 33andrain he states this :

"The GEFS & EPS couldn't be more different after 300 hours in the North Pacific & North America. Subtle changes in the North Pacific storm track are mostly to blame as the GEPS which shows basically the same MJO forecast as the GEFS but produces a more similar height configuration to the EPS."

 

Meanwhile some interesting  thoughts by Webb and Paul Roundy regarding the GEPS and the GEFS.  

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Best d10-15 EPS run of winter by a large margin. Implies that if things break right there is good storm potential and not just messy nickles and dimes. 

It was a good run. Ejected the vortex away from AK which was my main gripe with 0z and built ridging into epo. First legit good run in a while. I was just kidding about Ji taking a 4 week hiatus. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a good run. Ejected the vortex away from AK which was my main gripe with 0z and built ridging into epo. First legit good run in a while. I was just kidding about Ji taking a 4 week hiatus. 

One thing that has bugged me since beginning of Dec is even when d10-15 showed a nice mean h5 setup there was always very few good snow solutions in the mix. I know snowmaps are flawed but they help tell a story under the hood. 12z eps is encouraging for that. Not only is the mean h5 ok but the ens are always showing an unusually high # of solutions that include snowfall considering the lead time. Best run of met winter and that's indisputable 

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18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...

:weenie:

1579716000-GkjPRYx7nAQ.png

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gfs op was a full cave to the EPS/GEPS progression. 18z gefs is a partial cave. Get all 3 global ens looking the same with no can kicking and the spirit of winter can return here. Cracks in the gefs stubborn armor have just shown up...

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope.  I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best.  PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole.  Nothing else was able to turn the trick.  If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today.

I will happily be wrong.

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19 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope.  I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best.  PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole.  Nothing else was able to turn the trick.  If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today.

I will happily be wrong.

I think you're missing the caveat that PSU was talking about the -NAO being mandatory to counteract the -PNA and huge central PAC ridge if they remained locked in place.

However, get the pig ridge out of the way and then there are other paths to success that don't mandate a -NAO. 

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope.  I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best.  PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole.  Nothing else was able to turn the trick.  If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today.

I will happily be wrong.

Prior to today's 12z run(which ji seemed to suddenly approve of lol), the EPS was showing incremental improvement in the Pacific. PNA has been trending towards neutral. Aligns with the latest MJO forecasts, taking the MC wave into the COD after briefly moving into phase 6. Should it reemerge, it looks like it would be in 7,8. or 1. In contrast, GEFS has been taking a high amplitude wave into phase 6. I guess what I am saying is, there are signs of a less hostile PAC, particularly on the EPS. Absolutely want the HL blocking, but hopefully it wont have to be the sole savior for winter.

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I am infinitely happier having the EPS on my side and the GEFS on a bad island rather than the usual reverse situation, but I am having a hard time intellectually accepting the hope.  I can't see the d10 - 15 EPS, but I haven't heard anyone mention a good NAO look so I am assuming it is so-so at best.  PSU's research showed that the ONLY way out of this mess was NAO help, so without that I just can't see us climbing out of this hole.  Nothing else was able to turn the trick.  If the snow-happy 50's and 60's couldn't figure out a way to escape (other than with the NAO) I can't envision us pulling it off today.

I will happily be wrong.

Yes but with the caveat that the pac ridge locked in for more than a short period. That feature is really starting to rage now but if the eps is right and it starts to wane in 12 days or so that takes us out of dire straights territory.  If the eps long range is correct the January monthly mean won’t look like the bad composites as much.  But if the pac ridge stays dominant then yes we would need blocking to offset.  There are no good looks with a strong central pac ridge and a +AO/NAO  

Its still way out there though. And we would be better with blocking. The gradient pattern the cfs and eps is advertising can easily end up with most of the snow to our northwest if we don’t get lucky. Hate to say it but that look isn’t so good for your area. You would likely need more help.  But it’s still a way better look than the raging pac ridge western trough combo. 

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Well, let's look at the bright side:  Hopefully this January won't be as tropical as January 2006.  Or January 1950.  Or, worst yet, January 1932.  I've read somewhere that mosquitoes were swarming in January 1932!

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hate to say it but that look isn’t so good for your area. You would likely need more help.

Yeah, I'm a realist about my climo.  Although I love snow, I will happily take mild/wet/cold/dry cycles as opposed to endless SER warmth.  I could even hope for nice little- EPO cold snap

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but with the caveat that the pac ridge locked in for more than a short period.

Yes I misunderstood this caveat.  I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term.

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2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

:weenie:

1579716000-GkjPRYx7nAQ.png

If you compare this pic from C.A.P.E with the same time stamp from Pivotal (posted by SteveRDU in the SE forum), you can really see the effect of the sites' different algorithms for snow accumulation.  I live just slightly southwest of the "9.8" in eastern NC.  WeatherBell shows me with zilch, Pivotal shows me with 7 inches.  Even setting aside the long-lead clown map aspect of both of them without knowing anything else, I can tell you that WeatherBell is much more realistic (or rather less unrealistic).  Makes me wonder how Pivotal could have such crappy algorithms or how they could be that different from each other.   

 

image.thumb.png.212b93fc2e008899c57891d1fa92de48.png

 

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Yes I misunderstood this caveat.  I was under the impression that you had found that once the Pacific Doom Blob came to play it, always stayed long term.

Depends what you consider “long term”. Most of the top analogs did lock in a long time. But there is no way I could pour through every week of every winter. I did look at every January. But a 10 day period can be masked within the monthly mean. But if the pattern locks in enough to show strongly on the monthly composite then no...all those examples it took blocking. 

Then there is this...since others have mentioned 1993

E66BF485-E27A-4ABD-B73E-82CF5FAA63BE.png.0c9420f230c5f26124ff4a2adb81ac4c.png

There are some significant differences in the pac near Hawaii and the location of the ridge so it didn’t show up as an analog but it’s similar in some ways. That year improved without blocking. But the snowy February was NW of the mid atl cities. And the one March storm was a crazy anomaly. A repeat of that pattern would be better but might not really make DC people happy. But it did get more of a trough in the east without blocking. But it wasn’t as good a match. So there is the issue of degrees. What is better?  What is a good enough analog to include in the dataset. 

But a few things are clear from the analogs.

1.  It’s a bad pattern.

2. It can last a long time (not always but it can)

3. If it locks in long enough to dominate a monthly mean it’s very likely to continue.

4. If it does without blocking were toast.  

That is all true but it leaves escape hatches. Maybe the pattern only lasts 10-15 days.  If the pac ridge weakens or shifts into an epo ridge that opens non blocking options that might have not shown up. Or maybe we get blocking later in winter. 

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EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.
Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
EPS has the best look of the decade thus far fwiw.

Where is the blocking that would sustain a wintry pattern after we hit day 16

That's on the GEFS. Take a blend and run...quickly.

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@Ji this is one of the better looks on the LR GEFS in many runs irt the HL ridging. Hints the PV is split....maybe some bridging can happen across the AO region to connect an EPO, NAO, and Scan Ridge. Not unpossible 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_60.png

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