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Minor to moderate winter event M-Tue Dec 16-17, 2019

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3 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

If you're going to blame some one the only thing that can be blamed is the under forecasting by the models. Nothing that morning really indicated it would over perform. Why would they send plows out when the forecast called for 1 inch of snow? If commuters woke up and saw the forecast called for 3 to 6 half of them that drove wouldn't have. By the time the city wanted to deploy the plows and additional salt trucks traffic was already building. So now people complain when they don't have snow removal equipment out and also complain when they do. Which is it? Some people on here just like to hear themself complain.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem.

A5A5B2E1-15B2-40D7-8F2F-5CC5E49648D0.png.f30e892d8dcde2db2a5a7541fb1b29c1.png

93ED68E6-4EC9-4A8D-A067-C68B54C1ABD0.png.447ab01133c844c38347f5f8dad06c66.png

 

I've honestly never seen the NAM show over an inch qpf of ice for White Plains this close to an event. Usually the icing is confined to the far NW suburbs.

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Where did you get that map? It has no snow for the five boroughs!? Obviously that’s false we are getting at least an inch or two

18z NAM Kuchera shows maybe a half inch of snow at most. You can't look at those ridiculous maps that count ice as snow.

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Radar looks moist with the overrunning out ahead.  And it looks relatively suppressed too.  The mid-level precip. is also clearly and distinctly visible in KS and MO.  There's probably going to be a quick burst of snow for many tonight.  But this continues to look really icy locally.  Maybe some paste and parachutes initially with the WAA but the powdery snow is confined to BGM, ALB, and SVT.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem.

A5A5B2E1-15B2-40D7-8F2F-5CC5E49648D0.png.f30e892d8dcde2db2a5a7541fb1b29c1.png

It does look like precip in the area will become convective at times late tonight into midday tomorrow, so heavy rain is a given for the immediate NYC metro. The 18Z RPM and new HRRRv4 are showing some ice accretion amounts of 0.5-0.75" in the same general areas as the NAM:

image.thumb.png.f7e155615a453f9937755a14909e5282.png

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Cut those ice maps in half and then subtract about half of that for runoff, so still looking at a narrow but widespread area of 0.25"-0.50" ice accretion. The freezing layer is confined to below 925mb on the 18z 3k NAM soundings. Even places like interior Union County don't really get above freezing at the surface until 14z or later. Most of the interior never really gets to 32.

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I never saw the NAM go so heavy on freezing rain before. Even if just 25% of that freezes without running off, it will be a problem.

A5A5B2E1-15B2-40D7-8F2F-5CC5E49648D0.png.f30e892d8dcde2db2a5a7541fb1b29c1.png

I live right below where it says 1.52 in central Morris County.. I'm scared lol

 

 

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@RU848789 and just as you say that and post an updated map, NWS PHI uses the old criteria for the warnings and issues a Winter Storm Warning for .25" of ice. Maybe they are just fudging it a little bit and going for impacts and combination of 2-4" of snow and .25ice combined, those two alone dont meet warning criteria though. At least not from the map you posted.

As i suspected...

Although the snow totals and the ice
totals individually fall below Warning criteria, believe that
the combination of the two will result in Warning level impacts.
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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It makes a difference because of record books 

That assumes NYC even measures it in time.  Remember a few Saturdays ago they likely got 0.5-0.7 or so but never measured in time and reported a trace 

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The HRRR shows substantial precip arriving in the area from SW to NE between 11PM and Midnight. Some areas could see snow earlier and the earlier the snow comes in the more you will get. By sunrise NYC and most of the immediate coast should be just above freezing, except for the usual spots which tend to hang on a little longer. 20-25 miles NW of the city is a different ball game.

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing

It seems we have returned to the usual N and W winters being better the last few years 

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17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

It makes a difference because of record books 

The record books are more about accurately recording what actually happens. Not getting much in a marginal situation isn’t that bad. But 1-26-15 is a whole different story with such a major underperformance and shift east.

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing

If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns.

I think the cold AMO incoming will shut things off significantly in a few years.  It may not be 1970s and 80s bad but I'm betting we will start seeing colder winters with less major storms more often 

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22 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

That's all virga. The moisture is still south of a line from reading PA to Philadelphia

 

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

All NWS reporting stations in eastern PA are reporting cloudy skies without any precipitation as of 4pm.  I saw a brief period of light snow during the midday hour and that has been it with the exception of some very light snow grains from time to time.

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15 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

we have gotten so spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s on long island, that last winter really was a bummer...I hope this is not one of those winters where LI is the rain snow line, that would be disappointing

I lived out there during the 70s and 80s and yes that is what you got.  As they say the good times don’t last.  The flip side is it is only December and there is plenty of winter left.

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Just now, Tatamy said:

I lived out there during the 70s and 80s and yes that is what you got.  As they say the good times don’t last.  The flip side is it is only December and there is plenty of winter left.

Makes you wonder. Why did the 80s and 90s (for the most part) suck for snow on the island. Then come the 2000s it totally changed

 

 

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Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Makes you wonder. Why did the 80s and 90s (for the most part) suck for snow on the island. Then come the 2000s it totally changed

 

 

The 80s was largely a ton of bad luck.  It was an abnormally low snow period for the area.  NYC should never go 8 years between 8 inch snow events

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