December 2019

[uncle W]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Yeah I don't trust anyone too friendly with Russia either. Sorry, Unc, I couldn't resist that one; ya gift wrapped it for me. But you know I luv ya brother.

I love Russia...They helped elect Trump...

[bluewave]

I don’t see why anyone needs to bring up what x or y politician says when discussing climate change. You realize that science and public policy are two separate fields. The world isn’t in a rush to develop technology needed for a transition to a post carbon society. So understanding how our weather and climate are changing is crucial to our successful adaptation. People can make their own choices like building smarter and becoming educated on how to negotiate more extreme weather. I honestly don’t care what people’s  personal political views are. Just try to refrain from disparaging the science.

[uncle W]

enough with sham politics...the earth survived warmer and colder periods we humans live in now... we humans think we can change the course of mighty rivers...bend steel in our bare hands and are faster than a speeding bullet...the Sun will destroy the earth before us humans...

[nycwinter]

we have a politics page keep your political ramblings to that page ...

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, Torch said:

Since when does high IQ’s replace common sense and history and worldly experience?

It doesn't, but people with higher IQ's tend to acquire them both and more quickly and easily than others. IQ tests actually measure these areas. In fact, it would be very hard to score a higher IQ at the full scale if you couldn't recognize "common sense" or had limited worldly experience. Take this common question from the most used test; What would you do if you saw smoke coming from a window? Answer; call the fire dept. And next? Go get help ( or some variation ). Some kids will stop at call the fire dept; one we tested said he would just let the professionals handle it. Wrong answer.

[JustinRP37]

Please keep the politics off this page. If people think 8 billion people have no effect on the planet then let them live in their ignorant bliss. But take a trip to the Keys, the Maldives, or any coastal area to see the effects of increasing sea level. And while people point out the earth has been much warmer in the past, that is true, but guess who wasn't here then? 8 Billion and growing people. The science is the science. I believe our current lifestyle won't change. Why? Because already we are far more efficient than ever. Our per capita energy consumption is actually lower today that it was a decade ago in the USA. Science is helping with all of this. Even the largest corporations are investing heavy in alternative energy. So please. Science, just like medicine is not politic. And before you say but it is only a theory, remember that gravity is only a theory, evolution is only a theory, etc. So let's everyone just hope to god we get a big snowstorm so we can all have fun. And I'd be more than happy to ever talk vector-borne diseases (tick and mosquitos) and what we are seeing. Now to go catch my flight for Christmas part II.

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we have a politics page keep your political ramblings to that page ...

Agreed. It's tempting to get baited in by these things. Like I said, we all need some interesting weather to talk about.

 

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Please keep the politics off this page. If people think 8 billion people have no effect on the planet then let them live in their ignorant bliss. But take a trip to the Keys, the Maldives, or any coastal area to see the effects of increasing sea level. And while people point out the earth has been much warmer in the past, that is true, but guess who wasn't here then? 8 Billion and growing people. The science is the science. I believe our current lifestyle won't change. Why? Because already we are far more efficient than ever. Our per capita energy consumption is actually lower today that it was a decade ago in the USA. Science is helping with all of this. Even the largest corporations are investing heavy in alternative energy. So please. Science, just like medicine is not politic. And before you say but it is only a theory, remember that gravity is only a theory, evolution is only a theory, etc. So let's everyone just hope to god we get a big snowstorm so we can all have fun. And I'd be more than happy to ever talk vector-borne diseases (tick and mosquitos) and what we are seeing. Now to go catch my flight for Christmas part II.

Have fun on your trip. Yeah, we need a snowstorm. Even a little one at this point...

[uncle W]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Please keep the politics off this page. If people think 8 billion people have no effect on the planet then let them live in their ignorant bliss. But take a trip to the Keys, the Maldives, or any coastal area to see the effects of increasing sea level. And while people point out the earth has been much warmer in the past, that is true, but guess who wasn't here then? 8 Billion and growing people. The science is the science. I believe our current lifestyle won't change. Why? Because already we are far more efficient than ever. Our per capita energy consumption is actually lower today that it was a decade ago in the USA. Science is helping with all of this. Even the largest corporations are investing heavy in alternative energy. So please. Science, just like medicine is not politic. And before you say but it is only a theory, remember that gravity is only a theory, evolution is only a theory, etc. So let's everyone just hope to god we get a big snowstorm so we can all have fun. And I'd be more than happy to ever talk vector-borne diseases (tick and mosquitos) and what we are seeing. Now to go catch my flight for Christmas part II.

what's the solution...this is a world problem...not just our problem...other countries are going thru their industrial revolution now...they don't follow any rules...what should we do about that...

[psv88]

56 minutes ago, uncle W said:

enough with sham politics...the earth survived warmer and colder periods we humans live in now... we humans think we can change the course of mighty rivers...bend steel in our bare hands and are faster than a speeding bullet...the Sun will destroy the earth before us humans...

We do change the course of rivers, by things called dams...we can bend steel when it is heated to a certain temperature and steel is a human creation, so that makes no sense bud....

[psv88]

It's really shocking that those who are older and have less time on this planet are the core climate deniers, while those who are younger, and have to live here for another 70+ years are interested in protecting the environment. 

The truth is, younger generations have a more vested interest in the long term health of this planet. Older generations can say "the earth will be destroyed by the sun" because their remaining time here is limited. It sounds harsh, but its the truth. 

If younger generations voted at the same rate as older generations, this country's politics would be very different. 

[gravitylover]

The krusty old folk are still running the show because they're the ones that run for office and vote. Change that paradigm and everything else will change. 

[doncat]

If you people would make the effort... Someone created a new thread for this topic and yet you continue to put it here.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I don’t see why anyone needs to bring up what x or y politician says when discussing climate change. You realize that science and public policy are two separate fields. The world isn’t in a rush to develop technology needed for a transition to a post carbon society. So understanding how our weather and climate are changing is crucial to our successful adaptation. People can make their own choices like building smarter and becoming educated on how to negotiate more extreme weather. I honestly don’t care what people’s  personal political views are. Just try to refrain from disparaging the science.

 Science absolutely helps drive public policy, and in a big way. From anti-smoking campaigns to the food pyramid to exercise recommendations and the dangers of mercury and lead paint, science drives public policy. Problem is, public policy is often too slow to implement changes in a timely fashion. For example, we know teenagers need more sleep than others, and have known this for a long time. Yet schools are only now realizing they should be starting the school day later. We also know that feeding children in school improves outcomes. Yet policy makers argue about this....absolutely no disrespect intended here, you are highly regarded for good reason in these parts. 

[Maureen]

26 minutes ago, doncat said:

If you people would make the effort... Someone created a new thread for this topic and yet you continue to put it here.

This clearly bears repeating. This is going on for pages and it’s enough already. Please and thank you. 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

 Science absolutely helps drive public policy, and in a big way. From anti-smoking campaigns to the food pyramid to exercise recommendations and the dangers of mercury and lead paint, science drives public policy. Problem is, public policy is often too slow to implement changes in a timely fashion. For example, we know teenagers need more sleep than others, and have known this for a long time. Yet schools are only now realizing they should be starting the school day later. We also know that feeding children in school improves outcomes. Yet policy makers argue about this....absolutely no disrespect intended here, you are highly regarded for good reason in these parts. 

great post

[CIK62]

GFS now has only three  32*-Days out of the next 16 for us, and none this year.

The Ensembles look good for three days Jan.05-8, thereafter  all BN air has retreated.       This did not impress the 12Z OP.

If this Strat. Warming fails, it means six weeks of tough noogies.        

 

 

[Juliancolton]

I'll never understand how anyone can hold the opinion that humans have no planetary influence. We've created and destroyed seas and deserts (often by accident), annihilated entire cities in an instant, and replicated the Big Bang in laboratories just because we were curious. Deliberately extinguishing all life on earth would be trivially easy, so to think we couldn't inadvertently do any damage over the course of centuries is absurd. 

[nycwinter]

stick to the weather politics theories mass destruction should not be on this page...

[wishcast_hater]

5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Facts are not debatable. I studied history as an undergrad. We had our share of deniers there too. One does not debate with them. 

What happens when entities as NOAA and NASA  screw with the data to bolster their agenda? Many scientists have looked at the raw data and caught them lying. It’s not an open and shut case. Science doesn’t lie but scientists do. Merry Christmas. 

[SHELEG]

12 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What happens when entities as NOAA and NASA  screw with the data to bolster their agenda? Many scientists have looked at the raw data and caught them lying. It’s not an open and shut case. Science doesn’t lie but scientists do. Merry Christmas. 

Couldn’t have said it better.  Many scientists think they are virtues for distorting data. Because they want to save us.

[psv88]

17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

What happens when entities as NOAA and NASA  screw with the data to bolster their agenda? Many scientists have looked at the raw data and caught them lying. It’s not an open and shut case. Science doesn’t lie but scientists do. Merry Christmas. 

“ many people are saying”, I wonder where you get your news from lmao

[MJO812]

Da fuq

[Brasiluvsnow]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

We do change the course of rivers, by things called dams...we can bend steel when it is heated to a certain temperature and steel is a human creation, so that makes no sense bud....

For you younger ladies and gents,,,and then back to the weather models

[Brasiluvsnow]

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Da fuq

88 ,,,,that is literally NEXT year lol. I hate all theses damn long range models as you know what they are showing now won't be remotely close to what happens on Jan 6th although I would take that in a heartbeat

[BxEngine]

You guys gotta be ****ing kidding me. 

[the_other_guy]

As I said yesterday the cold air keeps getting kicked further into the future meaning you are looking at model BS

Next 10 days look mild...as could be said for last several days. 

[Rjay]

7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

we have a politics page keep your political ramblings to that page ...

I dont see why this subject has to be political though.  

 

Anyway, I hope you all had a nice Christmas 

[IrishRob17]

20 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

As I said yesterday the cold air keeps getting kicked further into the future meaning you are looking at model BS

Next 10 days look mild...as could be said for last several days. 

Yeah, I saw that The Post had that too

 

[donsutherland1]

After a frosty start, much of the region saw temperatures recover to the 40s.

The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that much of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December.

Through today, New York City's highest temperature this December is 58°, which occurred on December 10. The last December to have a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was December 2005 when the temperature peaked at 55° on December 24. However, the potential exists for the temperature to approach or reach 60° in New York City during the December 28-29 period.

Through December 24, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.7°, Boston: +0.2°, Islip: -0.6°, New York City: -1.5°, Newark: -1.2°, Philadelphia: -0.6°, and Washington, DC: 0.0°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario, which currently appears to be somewhat more likely than not through the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -27.97 today. That is the lowest SOI value since November 5 when the SOI was -34.49.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.097.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 3, but some warming above 3 mb is possible near the end of December. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December concludes and January begins. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the start of January on the EPS.

On December 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.923.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.5°.

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.2[37.1].        December should end near  +1.4[38.9].

41* here at 6am.     40* by 8am.       47* by Noon.

All the models look like horror shows for their durations.    Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones.

Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor.

The first 5-Day period with a BN average T  is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north.