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Ji

Is next winter looking like a disaster?

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just peaked at the enso models and it looks like neutral to La Nina?

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-NAO will surely come positive nao by thanksgiving and will last until March 21st. 

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22 hours ago, Ji said:

just peaked at the enso models and it looks like neutral to La Nina?

Winter cancel.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

This place gets worse and worse every year, and sh*tlords like Ji don't help matters at all.

Maybe this will mean we won't have to hear Ji complain in every winter thread... well, one can hope

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Which will we have more of? 90 degree days or inches of snow.  I think I know the answer. 

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Which will we have more of? 90 100degree days or inches of snow.  I think I know the answer. 

Still know the answer

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Short answer is yes. More like non-existent aside from sun angle changes. Although the aggressive warming near AK has caught my attention. It could throw a wrench into my prediction. I mean look at that insanity. There's like a 500,000 sq mile area of 7 C+ ocean anomalies.

We are profoundly f***.

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This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. 

Want snow ?   - you have to wait till March . 

However, maybe this October we get another Hazel.  

 

 

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Just now, frd said:

This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. 

Want snow ?   - you have to wait till March . 

However, maybe this October we get another Hazel.  

 

It looks like they are using +NAO repetition. 

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5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It looks like they are using +NAO repetition. 

Posted only for entertainment value. 

Anything can happen,  and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually,  I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively .

Also,  IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo.    

Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know. 

 

 

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On 7/18/2019 at 1:17 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-QBO/El Nino is ideal. Looks like we'll switch in November. lol

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ?  If so, no guarantee of a change.   

Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall.   

Seems to be more at play here.  So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome.  

I rather have a  +PDO, favorable PAC , etc. 

 

 

 

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