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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Maxed out at 85F here.  Tack on a few degrees for UHI and you get 89F.  Site may run a degree or 2 warm

Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. 

BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from.  SSE looks like it would be the more developed side.

But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. 

 

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. 

BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from.  SSE looks like it would be the more developed side.

But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. 

 

I never trust BDL highs. I’ll take a bank reading in West Hartford over it for better representation of death valley temps.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I continue to be less and less impressed by the Ukmet. That thing is pounding tons  of four loco

Jb must like it he tweeted about an excessive  rainstorm lol

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. 

BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from.  SSE looks like it would be the more developed side.

But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. 

 

The ASOS is located at the marker.

AE0804BA-12EF-4421-96D0-4E0C43D90CED.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I never trust BDL highs. I’ll take a bank reading in West Hartford over it for better representation of death valley temps.

It's crazy because HFD looks more UHI than BDL... but HFD's high was 86F and the highest hourly ob was 85F. 

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ASOS is located at the marker.

Hot and dry open field climate?  They also had the lowest dewpoint I could find of 49F.

CEF had a high of 85F but a min dewpoint of 53F.

Extra downslope/compressional drying/heating of the air mass?  Still seems like a lot of extra degrees from other areas.

Pretty sure Bradley has higher plane traffic inbound/outbound all day long tough...no idea how that affects it but jet engines running back and forth all the time might do it.  Passenger and shipping operations out of that airport seem to occur pretty steadily all day long.

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And here is the irony which is the ORH ASOS. Surrounded by more tarmac than BDL.

EE6EF33F-CFD1-4938-B34E-8FB65D8CB0AF.jpeg

What a horrible spot. I remember when they changed it a few years back. It used to be to the left of the "Worcester regional airport" text on that shot. 

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11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You and your staff are certainly already privy to the following ... 

But, this model's immediate ancestor seriously and embarrassingly gaffed last year's summer heat episodes with ungodly ... hell-bound top errors in the boundary layer.  

And it wasn't just heat... It blew it in some of those cold cyclone systems in March 2018 as well... having 3.5" of QPF in CCB, with temperatures of 39 over DPS of 32 - type absurdities.  

Question:   I read the PDF/demo of the then FV3' and how it was argued a better performer, but that performance appears to be focused in deep layer tropospheric steering and synoptic stretching/progressive corrections.  I'm not sure if any improvements in the BL thermal handling was included?    If not ... heh...  should we assume the heredity for suspect BL handling is still there??  

The short answer is this was a "do no harm" update to the dynamical core. From there it theoretically be easier to improve on forecasts.

The longer answer is that the GFS definitely had an over-mixing the boundary layer problem. Obviously showing up most notably during winter storms ( typically inverted) and HHH days (typically high moisture content leading to lower lapse rates). To my knowledge this hasn't been eliminated in the FV3 version. Look for more significant improvements on the model itself in 2020-2021. 

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ASOS is located at the marker.

AE0804BA-12EF-4421-96D0-4E0C43D90CED.jpeg

It used to be in a giant field on the other side of Rte 75 until they moved it "on field" in the 90s.  Temps took a noticeable tick up when they did that, especially the mins.

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41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ASOS is located at the marker.

AE0804BA-12EF-4421-96D0-4E0C43D90CED.jpeg

That doesn't show all of BDL they have huge parking lots and buildings which I'm sure add to the heat.. planes are constantly going over my house at peak travel times.. I would say every 2 to 5 minutes..  

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8 hours ago, tamarack said:

After playing with Google Earth, those above locations confirm my suspicions that, prior to the current observer's move to 1.3 miles N of the PO, all locations were in the built-up part of town.  The 19898-to-1942 site would be among houses that, for the most part, are still there.  It and 1944-45 are on SW-facing sidehills, while the others prior to 1966 are pretty much flat.  The original at/near PO location has been built up for well over a century, though in the 1890s the streets were likely unpaved.  The current location lies north of the built-up area, on a west-facing sidehill, a considerably different type of site from all previous ones.  The info you found can explain a number of facets of the co-op's data, and looking for signs of 7 AM obs time (typically, "twin" winter minima during a cold snap when nearby sites only show one) can offer additional clarity.  I've found no signs of mid-afternoon (typically 4 PM) obs, most easily noted by twin maximums in hot weather.

The 6/1/1948 date is one I've noted as start-up for many other co-ops.  It's like NWS got some post-war funds to establish dozens to hundreds of new sites, and perhaps some relocations of existing ones.

They also had a plethora of returning vets to employee at airfields. 

Right now Farmington is a midnight ob, but I'm not sure how long it has been that way. 

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... I get it about the 99 versus 89 thing.   I was just musing with PF last week ... it's on my bucket list to walk off an airplane into 120 F ...  

It's no different than wanting to visit the Eiffel Tower, the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids...  the 72" snow on the level after compaction winter pack - ... 

In that same vein, to be able to amble around the town with the car dash at 104 or 106 knowing that in reality it's 101 clad, is just something to tell the grand kids. 

But most of all ... knowing is part of life - and one cannot really know something unless they're there.  We can always live vicariously through others but ...there's nothing like first hand accountability. 

Accept for thunderstorms ... I'm weird about that.. I'd rather be situated out side the CB's impact space so that I can see it's majesty against the back ground, and watch all the nerd cloud parcels bubbling away with electricity dancing inside and out of their nebular plumes.  Once underside... it's not that same as the cool appeal of a sideways cob-webbing snowfall, where you start to feel disappointed when you know it's ending. With bangers... I just want to get back into the sun so I can see the cloud again.. 

I think it was 111 F when I got off the plane in Vegas last August. Not quite the same but pretty damn hot for this NNE boy. We did see 119F in Death Valley later that week. 

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8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast. 

I wish I had been paying more attention to the PDS of QPF. I'm wondering if there was a signal for a higher likelihood for localized high QPF vs. widespread thanks to the drier air. 

I know it's Kevin's favorite but we have a long way to go with probabilistic forecasts. We still have a long way to go with the Saffir Simpson scale. Scott is right, that's a garbage excuse not to evacuate, and maybe more evidence that we should move to an impact scale that includes Saffir Simpson. They may have been right to not order an evacuation, but for the wrong reasons. 

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BD impressive on 00z FRH grid ... flag strainer sustained chill into Logon abruptly ... 60 deg at 20 kts

93 73 93 wed-Fri

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42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That doesn't show all of BDL they have huge parking lots and buildings which I'm sure add to the heat.. planes are constantly going over my house at peak travel times.. I would say every 2 to 5 minutes..  

Eh..that’s zoomed out quite a bit. BDL isn’t that bad.

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11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh..that’s zoomed out quite a bit. BDL isn’t that bad.

Seems alot bigger being there.. 

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27 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Saturday is looking like an inferno.  Probably 95-100 in the lower elevations.  

summer in summer

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5 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Saturday is looking like an inferno.  Probably 95-100 in the lower elevations.  

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the euro 2m temps this high for us.

226F52CF-26F3-4E66-B2AF-8860009326C1.png

 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the euro 2m temps this high for us.

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. 

So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast. 

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The op is an outlier in the ensemble spread however. For instance CON, going with 99 and the high member is 100, mean 96, and low 89. 

So the op is like a 90th percentile forecast. 

So you’re telling me there’s a chance. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So you’re telling me there’s a chance. 

Right now the 90/10 "goalposts" are 93-99. Scorch-ah.

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Hot Saturday in reverse.  Hot Saturday was followed by a hellacious bd dropping Sunday afternoon temperatures to the low 60s.  Thursday this week looks chilly followed by heating up to Saturday’s crescendo.

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Saturday  is definitely  big heat going to have to hibernate  for the day.. we cool next week though.  

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Got down to 56.8 this morning after after a high of 86.7...not looking forward to the heat coming up, too hot for the kids to be outside for long periods.

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