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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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that blob is headed right for the metro. the hrrr cannot seem to get a handle on it and is therefore useless 

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On 7/10/2019 at 2:24 PM, psv88 said:

It’s funny how wind direction affects temps out here. I was 89 yesterday too, and some days you are hotter than my location. 

I know, I used to think LI climo was very straightforward, but it has a ton of little quirks and kinks. Fun to witness during temperature extremes.

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Blue.  I'm on the Glen Ridge/Montclair border.  Haven't seen rain like this since the last hurricane.  This might have been heavier.  My backyard floods something fierce in rains like this.  The only thing that must have saved us is how dry the ground has been for the past 10 days.  Though, there's still the rest of tonight.

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35 minutes ago, stu said:

Blue.  I'm on the Glen Ridge/Montclair border.  Haven't seen rain like this since the last hurricane.  This might have been heavier.  My backyard floods something fierce in rains like this.  The only thing that must have saved us is how dry the ground has been for the past 10 days.  Though, there's still the rest of tonight.

The one new constant is that heavy rains beat expectations where the highest totals occur. These extreme rainfall events are almost coming too fast to keep track of. 

Just a few of the most recent events.

https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1148967598056509440

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1148959568602509312

https://www.theindependent.com/news/local/heavy-rain-brings-back-flooding-worries-in-central-nebraska/article_4e0c6e72-a2af-11e9-9f0b-0b2d31436be0.html

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_pbz/status/1149416944770043904

 

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Very heavy convection overhead and nearby. Just had my first close lightning strike of the day. The radar almost looks like a PRE with the conveyor belt of tropical moisture. 

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For all the rain we had this spring, the past 10 have been very dry. The rivers out this way are well below bank full. This is needed rain if we are about to enter the oven for the next 10-14.  

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there's a synoptically- and nocturnally-induced increase in the low-level jet tonight that will help a good chunk of LI and CT cash in on tropical downpours, but be careful what you wish for. these features combined w/ 2"+ PWATs will almost always produce flash flooding. could see some wet microbursts and maybe a spin-up here or there later this evening, as well. 

RPM_llj.png.8db290d8b487c0dbfdb6b7c4010bfbbd.png

aside from widespread heavy rainfall, it's not quite clear what will happen in the city since the transition/lull from diurnal to nocturnal forcing occurs nearby. should be some interesting radar loops this evening at the least.

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FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY
A rare Flash Flood Emergency has been posted for southeastern Berks and northwestern Montgomery Counties. This is an extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening situation. Emergency officials are reporting ongoing flash flooding with numerous water rescues.

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Looks like more of the same the next several days, both NWS offices have temps ranging from the upper 80's to low 90's thru late next week.

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35 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY
A rare Flash Flood Emergency has been posted for southeastern Berks and northwestern Montgomery Counties. This is an extremely dangerous and potentially life threatening situation. Emergency officials are reporting ongoing flash flooding with numerous water rescues.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149431591531212800

At 5:15 PM EDT, 1 E Earl TWP [Berks Co, PA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY RAIN of 4.58 INCH. WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALSO REPORTED.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149435946468642816

At 5:26 PM EDT, Amity Gardens [Berks Co, PA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports FLASH FLOOD. RESIDENCE WITH 5 FEET OF WATER IN BASEMENT.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149435377670770688

At 5:20 PM EDT, 2 S Douglass TWP [Berks Co, PA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports FLASH FLOOD. VEHICLE STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS NEAR INTERSECTION OF GRIST MILL RD AND LOCUST DR WITH A RESCUE OF TWO PEOPLE. VEHICLE WAS LATER CARRIED AWAY BY FLOOD WATER.

 

 

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South Jersey has certainly been a severe hotspot this year:

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 745 PM EDT.
    
* At 721 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Mount Laurel, or 10 miles east of Camden, moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

 

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16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Whats the probability of a regionwide 100 degrees in July this year, Don?

 

I think it's low. EWR might have some shot. A better shot might exist in August (except for tree-covered Central Park).

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A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall is likely in much of the Middle Atlantic region tonight into tomorrow with isolated figures of 2.00" or more depending on where the thunderstorms train.

Already, as of 7 pm, Allentown has picked up 2.75" rain for today. The old daily record was 1.17", which was set in 1950. Allentown has received. 36.64" precipitation year-to-date, which makes 2019 that city's 91st wettest year on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -19.33 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.929. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 10, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.397 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.622.

The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.2° (32nd warmest on record) to 79.2° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature just below 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 70%.

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Shhhh!  Listen!   Do You Want to Know a Secret?       The GFS has 13 straight 90 Degree Days, including two 100's, starting tomorrow.

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Very little here so far, enough to barely wet the ground. Hopefully a period of at least moderate rain coming in-we need it. Unfortunately models seem to have the split-screw where NJ gets dumped on as it has been, then another round goes E or SE of us. Hopefully that's wrong. 

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Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode. 

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