• Member Statistics

    15,773
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

Based on the HRRR, most of our area can expect severe weather today likely in the form of damaging wind. I think hail will be an issue as well all the way to NYC again like last week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like we’ll sneak in some nice sunny weather before the storms arrive later. The marine layer also retreated further out east into Suffolk. We have to enjoy the sun when we can get it in this pattern.

 

A7141060-3C0B-48FA-BE22-2B715AA2B77F.jpeg.6d073edd4689c8f22eda0b4891bdf433.jpeg

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we’ll sneak in some nice sunny weather before the storms arrive later. The marine layer also retreated further out east into Suffolk. We have to enjoy the sun when we can get it in this pattern.

 

A7141060-3C0B-48FA-BE22-2B715AA2B77F.jpeg.6d073edd4689c8f22eda0b4891bdf433.jpeg

 

Bodes well for the storms to survive to the coast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From OKX AFD:

Dry this morning, then expecting showers and thunderstorms to
develop with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front
as it approaches later today. CAPE and shear will result in the
organization for thunderstorms today. There is decent amount of
CAPE in hail growth region. Specifically, RAP model is
conveying 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35 kt moving into the region
this afternoon with surface CAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg.

There is a chance some of the storms become severe. Main
threats with these thunderstorms will be gusty winds, hail,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development on the
Atlantic beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Evening starts off with the cold front right about to enter the
region. Bulk shear 0-6km maximizes in 30-40 kt early this
evening will allow for thunderstorms to remain organized but
decreasing CAPE will lead to some loss of strength to the
thunderstorms. Expecting the western half of the forecast
region to be numerous to widespread with showers and
thunderstorms and by the mid evening expecting this greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms to spread to the eastern
half of the region if not shortly before. Same threat with
thunderstorms before in the afternoon but again do expect a
little weakening with the lower amounts of CAPE for Southeast
Connecticut and Eastern Long Island where temperatures will be
lower with the greater maritime influence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Up to 78 here but about an hour or so from mainly cloudy conditions.  SO should just break 80.

 

Guidance was not enthused on any type of heat through around fathers day.  Still believe some sneaky heat can encroach the area on/around Jun 9 but will need t watch.  Beyond there current pattern could shift to a hot one towards late Jun and into July.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 78 here but about an hour or so from mainly cloudy conditions.  SO should just break 80.

 

Guidance was not enthused on any type of heat through around fathers day.  Still believe some sneaky heat can encroach the area on/around Jun 9 but will need t watch.  Beyond there current pattern could shift to a hot one towards late Jun and into July.   

80 has been the new 90 with this pattern that has been stuck in place. Our warmer departures have been mostly driven by all the clouds and rain keeping the minimums up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bluewave said:

80 has been the new 90 with this pattern that has been stuck in place. Our warmer departures have been mostly driven by all the clouds and rain keeping the minimums up.

looking like another summer that peaks in august

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM says what storms this afternoon

HRRR is similar. Both models have the storms missing us to the south today. Will be interesting to see if those models are right, because SPC has the whole area in a slight risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM says what storms this afternoon

not a fan of the westerly winds and lowering dewpoints. earlier runs had southerly sfc flow which would have been more favorable

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR is similar. Both models have the storms missing us to the south today. Will be interesting to see if those models are right, because SPC has the whole area in a slight risk.

I was about to ask around what time should I expect rain/storms to reach NYC? Should I be asking "if" instead?  I'm going to be outside all day am hoping it stays dry as late as possible..like post 5pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
not a fan of the westerly winds and lowering dewpoints. earlier runs had southerly sfc flow which would have been more favorable
That would explain the heat in Suffolk county

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

78/69 here. Briefly touched 80. Slightly steamy but with a nice breeze.

Feels exactly how it should this time of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
if 80 is hot what's 95?
Lol. I'm used to 50s and back doors

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storms should pop off around 4 or 5 from west to east. Dew points could be better but the storms to our south in WV have no problem going severe with dews hovering 60. Mlcape is better down there but everything else looks to be the same for our area. It's not as widespread as the models were showing yesterday however I think a few storms in our area will go severe as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a wet and below average temp pattern ahead.

As long as it’s wet and not warm and humid. That’s the worst weather hot and humid. Tomorrow Ramadan ends and it looks like the weather will start changing around!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.