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Rtd208

June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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37 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Severe thunderstorm warning for Brooklyn and queens 

68 DBZ hailer with that warned cell.

 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Rain for about 3 seconds in Long Beach. Storm literally went about 1-2 miles north. Cool looking shelf cloud associated with it and some gusty wind. 

Looks like the hail just missed to your north over Island Park and Oceanside.

 

C61C1A68-A4D3-4361-A5CB-B3213E23878E.thumb.png.38f7961068d45041964a51b37c1c3b9b.png

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8 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

 

That impressive. We talk about it but it seems hail rarely materializes within nyc. 

I got partly cloudy skies and temp down to 79.

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10 minutes ago, dWave said:

That impressive. We talk about it but it seems hail rarely materializes within nyc. 

I got partly cloudy skies and temp down to 79.

The steep midlevel lapse rates have been very impressive. 2 severe hail days for the NYC/LI area this week. 

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

80 has been the new 90 with this pattern that has been stuck in place. Our warmer departures have been mostly driven by all the clouds and rain keeping the minimums up.

There's a ton of onshore flow possible end of this week into next along with the decent two day NW flow cool down Mon-Tue. 

90+ readings will be very unlikely in this pattern. Even 85+ will be hard to come by. I'm not sure when this will change, these stuck patterns last for months.

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8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's a ton of onshore flow possible end of this week into next along with the decent two day NW flow cool down Mon-Tue. 

90+ readings will be very unlikely in this pattern. Even 85+ will be hard to come by. I'm not sure when this will change, these stuck patterns last for months.

Pretty dramatic SST cool down to our east from the same time last year. 

 

0D430981-6675-4AE2-B339-3B50FC2D9A8E.png.8b999e44f87921aa2164e3696f9db952.png

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Coney Island escaped even a drop at about 5:45PM to 6:15PM, just a rumble of thunder with boiling dark clouds north of me.    I could see sheets of rain to my north blot the NYC skyline (I am high up) and radar echo color code suddenly go red over an area of Flatbush etc.     Had no idea it contained hail.   Great video!   But this was in the Bronx according to the board member, not Brooklyn.

Regarding the SST 1 Year Anomaly Change shown above----Do you know why the experts are saying the MDR has decreased in T and this will prevent many systems from forming?   It has warmed it seems, unless I don't know where the MDR is.

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8 hours ago, sferic said:

@donsutherland1 Don, what year holds the distinction as the coolest for NYC and what were the departures from normal?

 

Thanks !

The coldest year in New York City was 1888 with a mean temperature of 49.3°. The warmest was 2012 with a mean temperature of 57.4°. The current normal is 55.0°.

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The coldest year in New York City was 1888 with a mean temperature of 49.3°. The warmest was 2012 with a mean temperature of 57.4°. The current normal is 55.0°.

@donsutherland1  Don, I am sorry , I meant coolest summer in KNYC records.

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The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through mid-June in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. Beyond mid-June, the probability of generally warm neutral conditions could increase.

The recent big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. Recent MJO data have reinforced that idea.

The SOI was -2.46 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.402.

On June 1, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.821 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 31-adjusted figure of 2.900.

Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2.

Both the ENSO data and MJO data suggest that the 12z ECMWF, with a cooler overall outlook over the next 10 days, is more likely to verify than the 12z and 18z GFS, which shows some much above normal temperatures during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 53%.

Meanwhile, the Southeast from South Carolina southward is off to a warmer than normal start consistent with what has typically followed an exceptionally warm May.

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35 minutes ago, sferic said:

@donsutherland1  Don, I am sorry , I meant coolest summer in KNYC records.

The coolest summer was 1903 with a mean temperature of 69.3°. The warmest summer was 2010 with a mean temperature of 77.8°. The current normal temperature is 74.4°.

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Warned now

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
910 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Hudson County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Eastern Passaic County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Union County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Central Bergen County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Essex County in northeastern New Jersey...
  Richmond County in southeastern New York...

* Until 945 PM EDT.

* At 910 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Chatham to Sayreville to near Tinton Falls,
  moving northeast at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Summit and Millburn around 915 PM EDT.
  Elizabeth and Bloomfield around 920 PM EDT.
  Newark and Jersey City around 925 PM EDT.
  Paramus and Ridgewood around 930 PM EDT.
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