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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

Storms should pop off around 4 or 5 from west to east. Dew points could be better but the storms to our south in WV have no problem going severe with dews hovering 60. Mlcape is better down there but everything else looks to be the same for our area. It's not as widespread as the models were showing yesterday however I think a few storms in our area will go severe as well. 

I mean 1000kj of CAPE and some leftover CIN at peak heating, compared to 2000kj of CAPE is such a big factor that it’s not fair to say the situations are comparable.  We need some mid/upper support to come in from the west in order to convect.

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13 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

First round fizzled so what's the ETA for more activity this afternoon here in the LHV?

Sun is out here now and the temp is starting to rise. Most of the activity looks to be confined to areas S of the HV.

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Today is more of your typical Northeast severe threat with 1000-1500 J/KG of SBCAPE to go along with ~30-40kts of bulk shear and somewhat decent lapse rates. Expect main storm mode to be linear with some multicellular development possible, especially South. One or two supercell structures are also possible. Main threats will be straight line wind damage and some hail. Cannot rule out an isolated brief tornado.

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Finally starting to see some deeper towers over Manhattan. so it looks like we finally eroded away the CIN that was around earlier in the afternoon.

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28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been sunny and relatively warm at Jones beach all day. Water temps are up big time this week. This should help coastal areas with storms.

..its been mostly cloudy with some haze out here..low clouds dominated. all in all not a good beach day

out here on the east end..finally cleared, but a little to late for this beachgoer.

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35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Low level lapse rates are quite high. Expect lots of small hail with any storms.

low level lapse rates enable strong winds to reach the surface. mid-level lapse rates are what help w/ hail production.

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58 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been sunny and relatively warm at Jones beach all day. Water temps are up big time this week. This should help coastal areas with storms.

What's the current water temp at Jones Beach?

16 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

low level lapse rates enable strong winds to reach the surface. mid-level lapse rates are what help w/ hail production.

When and where? Looks mostly south and maybe west of the city to me.

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Looks like some hail showing up now near Southern Westchester.

 

1334B081-C0C8-499D-B2A2-C9FE245A0E16.thumb.png.11a79c160663e9f1384acb2d7db200d2.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Watching these pop-up cells from the roof of my building in Manhattan,  there looks to be less shear than forecast.  The cells are very vertical and look to be raining over their updrafts.  Maybe that's why we haven't yet seen linear organization and why convective initiation was later than originally forecast.

 

Updrafts are nice and robust, thought.  Plenty of CAPE.

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Its unlikely but I'd watch that storm in Newark for a quick spin-up.  It's riding the collision of two OFBs and is showing broad rotation on radar.

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Issued only after it passed through here

JZ006-106>108-NYZ072-074-075-176-022145-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Northern Queens-New
York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
517 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUDSON...UNION...SOUTHEASTERN
ESSEX...QUEENS...RICHMOND...KINGS AND NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)
COUNTIES...

At 516 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clark, or near
Linden, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth, Flatbush, Bayonne, Hoboken, Linden,
Coney Island, Todt Hill, Crown Heights, Huguenot, The Verrazano
Narrows Bridge, Canarsie, Bay Ridge and Lower East Side.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Second sea breeze pop up storm over the North Shore.

 

DE22C9DB-BC8D-4DA7-92D2-E386C02FDFC4.thumb.png.abbea2a88f55af396e419ecafda05624.png

 

 

I see it from the bx looking toward the Sound...plus T storms just nw  over Riverdale/Yonkers and just to the south over LGA. So far here in a small calm spot wit clouds and sun.  Ominous skies all around except straight overhead. 

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The Staten Island mesonet just gusted to 40 mph with the strong cell moving through.

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Staten Island mesonet just gusted to 40 mph with the strong cell moving through.

Just a quick sunshower as that storm past north of me.

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