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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still ... ?

Not sure I concur...  No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ...  It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin'

I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one.  I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger.  I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. 

We'll see

6-10...6-8 close enough. It’s not going to be compressed imo. This setup sometimes ticks NW last 48hrs. Maybe it won’t, but we’ve seen it before.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you.  The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... 

In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there.

The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. 

Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true.  Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. 

Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor.  It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are.  Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really.  The "correction vector" is less in this flow...

Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. 

I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. 

Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth.

I don't think anyone anyone dismissed the cons, and it was pretty universally considered to be a difficult forecast. I'm not sure what your point is. "Screwed" refers to the fact that it had potential to be better, which was reflected by some of the most skilled guidance at very short lead times. All I mean by screwed.

I made a call and it was wrong....simple as that. I understand why some weren't as optimisitc, and they were ultimately right.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The big question is, will you get enough sleep tonight to prevent an angry howl if 0z guidance makes a noise tick se?

Lol C’mon...I needed to melt. It felt good too. Me and Ray double teaming it last night.  

 

Ill keep the howling down tonight, even if it goes to crap.  Im calm and relieved now.  

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