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NE snow event March 4th


tiger_deF
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27 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I just don't usually hear them worded that way

Because h5 isn’t just that.  It’s 500mb which gives you a broader picture of ridges and troughs as well as blocking.  Upper dynamics include 900 mb, 850, 700 which is respectively 2;000 ft, 5,000, and 10,000.

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

BUFKIT omega/soundings are only as good as the model you're using. 

Yup! 

Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?”

the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. 

There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup! 

Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?”

the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. 

There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. 

Except absolutely nothing shows that and instead shows it right over CT to Central Mass

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2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Hopefully this beats the November snow fall here of 7.5". That remains the largest snowfall here of the season.

That November storm was a good one here..8.75 inches.  I don’t know if this thing tomorrow is gonna beat it???  Gonna have to be a good hit tomorrow night to beat November..

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except absolutely nothing shows that and instead shows it right over CT to Central Mass

I also don’t just forecast based on what a model is currently showing. I try and analyze the look and then use history and past events to dictate whether that will remain consistent I succeeding runs and is an accurate dipiction of the outcome or we will see changes. 

Forecast hugging over QPF amounts and precip maps is a sign of trouble. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I also don’t just forecast based on what a model is currently showing. I try and analyze the look and then use history and past events to dictate whether that will remain consistent I succeeding runs and is an accurate dipiction of the outcome or we will see changes. 

Forecast hugging over QPF amounts and precip maps is a sign of trouble. 

You should never forecast on qpf. This storm is all fronto and if you looked at 850.. it’s 1-2” hour fronto right over CT up to ORH 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup! 

Usually when I bust or miss I will go back and look everything over and ask myself this question, “if I had to forecast this all over again would I make the same forecast?”

the answer here was no. I realized what I overlooked and the significance of what I overlooked. Looking at tomorrow I see a lot of those same flags. I dont give a crap about QPF at all...when you look at all the data you can pretty much get a good idea of what QPF you’re looking at. 

There is a pretty damn solid likelihood tomorrow that the heaviest QPF is south of this area. Eastern MA probably fine. 

there's a pretty sizeable difference between the gfs and the nam/ecwmf. If something similar to the latter two verify you're getting a solid amount of snow. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You should never forecast on qpf. This storm is all fronto and if you looked at 850.. it’s 1-2” hour fronto right over CT up to ORH 

Well that’s part of my concern here and that’s what bit me in the fanny last night. I purely forecasted based on speculated fronto. Based on the look of everything I am legit worried that’s does not make it into CT (except S CT perhaps). 

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