• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
40/70 Benchmark

March Disco

Recommended Posts

Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast...

That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not going to get sucked into that question at this point...lol

If it ends up a weak, strung-out mess then maybe there's mixed showers down in SNE, but if that's the case, who cares about ptype, right?

Of course, just poking the nest a bit, lol. I’m kinda checked out personally and not expecting much, but still would be happy with an unexpected surprise if it were in the cards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast...

That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday... 

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Fv3 Jacks me with 26". Gotta be correct

 

 

I love the FV3. Its like a fantasy storm entertainment model. Like roller coaster tycoon for snowstorms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

On queue FV3 lost it too far east.

"Lost" ?

Not sure it ever "had it" far enough west to begin with - at least I'm not familiar with any prior model cycles where it depicted it so...

No, if anything, from a Meteorological perspective this was a higher impact solution when assessing using the 500 mb chart synoptic evolution and the fact that any surface response may or may not have been too far E as this particular run goes is mutable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The FV3 is garbage. The only reason why I am mildly interested in this threat is because it is being hinted at a bit by the other models/ensembles. I will give this another 36 hours before I put this threat to rest or buy into it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought it was already on-board...  huh

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

H5_FV3_03_17_2019_shortwave_entering_BC.jpg.24197545506c437aece0328c9a017e45.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me?

East of 6z 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...

yes, it's in the NW territories now

vort.thumb.PNG.0ffbcfe59a9b412097b93adeece4c723.PNG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

East of 6z 

I guess it depends on your view. Nothing had it near Chatham previously. It developed and curled north. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL the 12z FV3 is a grid annihilator. That thing went into James’ fanny. Didn’t look east to me?

The change for wsne is the angle of approach.  12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

The change for wsne is the angle of approach.  12 Z rides 70 up to CC,6 Z was 68.5 to Cape. Sensible weather difference 

Yeah I mentioned that earlier. Depends on view. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too -

As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

He might be also seeing the QPF shifting around too -

As other's noted the track is the same.. but there are idiosyncrasies in the QPF layout where 06z was a tad east -

Track is not the same 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, apm said:

Say what you will about the FV3 (and the disparagement is generally warranted), but it has been eerily steadfast with this...

Eek, that means that if it busts it doing so with style, huh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Track is not the same 

Not the same as what ?

I just went through the last cycle and this one compared... they are not demonstratively different to matter -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s steadily awful. 

Kinda like how the old NOGAPs used to always track our eventual coastals over Bermuda.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s steadily awful. 

I'm sure eastern areas will get something, out this way meh...If it isn't going to be a spring blizzard then lets get this cold out of here so we can enjoy this spring early!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.