Fozz Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd regarding enso, this will be part of my end of year retrospective but since you were talking about a possible nino next year thought I would throw it out there. What we really want is a moderate/strong modoki/central based Nino. Anything else really doesn't do it for us. I went through and filtered out all the nino years by modoki/traditional and strength (and I used the older traditional modoki classification where if the nino originated in the central PAC and propagated east before regressing westward it was modoki regardless if it took on basin wide characteristics for a time as most do). Here are the findings and snowfall for BWI Weak Modoki years using January: 1959, 1969, 1978, 1980, 1995, 2005, 2015. Average snowfall 18.05" Moderate/strong Modoki years: 1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 1992, 2003, 2010. Average snowfall 43.14. The only one that wasn't a historic winter was 1992 and most agree the eruption of Pinatubo significantly changed the patterns that year. Weak Traditional nino: 1952, 1954, 1970, 1977, 2007: avg snowfall 15.86" Moderate: 1988 yea only one year lol, don't know what to make of that. Snowfall 20.4" Strong: 1973, 1983, 1998, 2016: avg 18.78" but with an obvious trend...2 of those years had one HECS and the other 2 did not and we got almost no snow in those. But the bottom line is the only type of nino that is actually good for us and raises our average snowfall above climo is a moderate/strong modoki. Keep that in mind going forward. Regarding this year...looks like this modoki weak fell into line with what I SHOULD have been expecting. Weak modoki tend to be variable but none were blockbusters...a few were duds, but many of them were basically what this year has been...meh. Do you think it's possible to have a Modoki super Nino? Or are 1957-58 and 2009-10 as good as it will ever get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 This is the threat, right? Well, it's not going to trend toward the NAO, so back to the EPO, a trough under it in the GOA and the Great Lake's trough might trend further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Legend? Who needs one with that look I will take my 42 inches and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Everyone needs to pipe down and get back to work.......shoveling all this winters FV3 snow requires less talkey talkey, more workey workey. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 GFS has my high temperature next Wednesday at 60 degrees. Euro has it at 26. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Deer Whisperer said: no idea what formula goes into making the snow depth map on FV3 but here ya go (this was the best looking panel) Finally, a western jack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, nj2va said: If (lol) the FV3 verifies, I'll hold a get together at my house in McHenry during the storm. 4'?! Gotta file that one away in the digital thread history books. I'm there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 EPS Control is a hit for the March 4-6 period. Not epic but 6 inches south of DC, over a foot north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, Fozz said: Do you think it's possible to have a Modoki super Nino? Or are 1957-58 and 2009-10 as good as it will ever get? Why can't we install a huge length of booms surrounding region 3.4 and drop in massive heaters to heat the water? I mean get that surface water to +5, hell even higher?!?! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Mean is much lower. Only about 12 members give the same output or more. A start in the right direction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: EPS Control is a hit for the March 4-6 period. Not epic but 6 inches south of DC, over a foot north and west. *weenie* Don't worry that's just the limited resolution of the control member unable to see the sweet sweet white gold *weenie* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Let’s end the winter with a bang!!! After being on spring please!!! (And dryer weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 It is fun tracking snow into early March.....we will see what happens!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Much better mean on the EPS for the d10-13 than 0z. Deeper dig with the trough and some signs of it going neg a few frames later. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 What are we thinking for start times? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: What are we thinking for start times? 1:47 am March 4th for the almost the entire area. 3:58 pm March 4th for my house. 7:05 pm March 4th for @C.A.P.E.'s house. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: What are we thinking for start times? We don't know what time because the power will be out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 im out--see you guys next winter 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 The CPC-made D+11 list of analog dates centered on March 4th do not recite any KU dates. However, the D+8 list spits out a date one day prior to the 1993 Superstorm and one day prior to the March, 1960 nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Do you think it's possible to have a Modoki super Nino? Or are 1957-58 and 2009-10 as good as it will ever get? I don’t know. 58 and 66 were close. Both featured some extreme mid Atlantic storms and a flip to colder after mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 56 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Why can't we install a huge length of booms surrounding region 3.4 and drop in massive heaters to heat the water? I mean get that surface water to +5, hell even higher?!?! What could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 This is a cool animation to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 32 minutes ago, Ji said: im out--see you guys next winter See ya next week 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts Terrible. Default 3 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts Can't get a signal at the AA meeting? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts Terrible. Default 3 inches Your funny sometimes. It was an improvement over the last run and you weren’t complaining about that one. Also...it has nothing day 1-9. Pretty much all 3” is from that threat day 11. That’s a much bigger signal than 3” speeds out over 15 days from a couple fluke hits on several low probability threats. There were about 15 members that miss us to the south. That’s another good sign. It was about as much of a signal as you will see day 11 for a storm on the EPS. It did pretty much lose any signal for snow before that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Your funny sometimes. It was an improvement over the last run and you weren’t complaining about that one. Also...it has nothing day 1-9. Pretty much all 3” is from that threat day 11. That’s a much bigger signal than 3” speeds out over 15 days from a couple fluke hits on several low probability threats. There were about 15 members that miss us to the south. That’s another good sign. It was about as much of a signal as you will see day 11 for a storm on the EPS. It did pretty much lose any signal for snow before that though. I didnt check the last run. let's not talk about the d11 to 15 forecasting disaster this year. Without that being said...I except the 12z fv3 to be spot on 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Can we actually talk about if the Euro ensembles showed any snow or not? I’d look for myself but I’m 6 deep in Murphy’s Irish stouts Some flush hits, south misses and north misses. A pretty good signal for a storm in the east late next weekend or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2019 Share Posted February 21, 2019 Hopefully the 18z fv3 improves a tick from 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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