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WxUSAF

February 10-12, 2019 Storm

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Can we get another one to break in our favor in a bad pattern? Fast flow with lots of shortwaves going to make for jumpy forecasts.

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I don't envy the forecasters for early next week.  From the end of the LWX disco LOL: 

In terms of sensible weather, this leaves the range of potential outcomes anywhere between well above normal temperatures and rain, to well
below normal temperatures and snow. The level of uncertainty is captured well by the range of high temperatures forecast by ensemble
guidance for Tuesday, which ranges anywhere from the upper 20s to the lower 70s.
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The depiction of Monday’s wave can’t help but remind me of our big January storm and last Friday. Both times models show this respectable wave in the plAins and Midwest that dies as it gets to us in the midrange. Both storms trended better for us in the short range.

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This looks like a good thump coming.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

Meh.  Ends up a couple of inches of snow that are quickly washed away by a deluge.  

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48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Good ol' Aunt JiMA...She's a little dotty but she means well...

Ji-M-A

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The mjo of the gefs is insane. It's literally all the charts in phase 8 near mid month.

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Meh.  Ends up a couple of inches of snow that are quickly washed away by a deluge.  

As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times.

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times.

No question.  Not writing it off.  

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8 minutes ago, Fozz said:

As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times.

The high is in a decent spot to start the event so cold could hold on a bit longer than depicted.

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2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The high is in a decent spot to start the event so cold could hold on a bit longer than depicted.

Yep, but it would help to have something hold it. It will depend on if this week's cutter can become a good transient 50-50 low once it gets to the maritimes.

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yep, but it would help to have something hold it. It will depend on if this week's cutter can become a good transient 50-50 low once it gets to the maritimes.

Ah--so maybe that's why Cranky on twitter was saying that tomorrow or Friday would be a good benchmark to start predicting the next storm!

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah--so maybe that's why Cranky on twitter was saying that tomorrow or Friday would be a good benchmark to start predicting the next storm!

Exactly, and that's why there is still so much spread with this system within the ensembles. 

I think pretty much everything is still on the table with this. From cutter to coastal. Should have a better idea which direction it's headed by tomorrow evening into Saturday. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With no strong low pressure within a 1000 miles it’s a lock that the low level cold will hang on longer than modeled

Do you think that will help us with snow, or just bring hours of zr?

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FV3 on the ncep looks really good for next weeks storm. Precip stays almost all snow. Need to wait for tt to get a clearer picture.

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7 minutes ago, wkd said:

FV3 on the ncep looks really good for next weeks storm. Precip stays almost all snow. Need to wait for tt to get a clearer picture.

Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately.  

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately.  

I read here in one post the FV3 is prone to lower heights which leads to good solutions.  That said, it’s weenie x3

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately.  

Can you send me the link for that?

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately.  

My weenie handbook says you hug it. 

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