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WxUSAF

January 29-30, 2019 Arctic FROPA

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18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time.

Gfs:

1Cf4IRd.png

 

3k:

CLcazFM.png

 

The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions  up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

 

18z tuesday is interesting on the soundings. 18z gfs is a little too warm up through about 925mb. 3k nam is a good bit colder at the same time.

Gfs:

3k:

The only thing standing in the way from maximizing this event is boundary conditions  up to 925mb or so at onset. Gfs shaved 2 degrees off the lower column from 12z but still too warm. I really like the 3k's sounding... so I'll be hugging that for now until something better comes along.

Besides the weenie handbook, I’d almost always go with the 3k over the GFS with getting BL temps correct.  

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40 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I’m not saying it won’t wreak any havoc I’m just saying I don’t think it’s that comparable of a system in my opinion 

Havoc??!

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I think something is definitely off with the GFS temps. The surface never gets above 35 here. If you look at the column max temperature map. That max temperature in the entire column is at the surface. So I would think we would see very little rain. Or I am just reading it wrong.

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice crisp winter morning on Thursday.

sfct.us_ma.png

That really isn't cold for what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, 20-30 degrees below normal is pedestrian. Happens like every other day amirite?

Eskimo Joe complains about everything 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That really isn't cold for what is supposed to be the coldest time of the year.

Ive lived here for 27 of my 33 years and I can tell you flat out that 5-10 degrees with a 30 mph wind is absolutely frigid for this area. A lot of winters the temp barely makes it under 20.

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Just now, Inthepines said:

Ive lived here for 27 of my 33 years and I can tell you flat out that 5-10 degrees with a 30 mph wind is absolutely frigid for this area. A lot of winters the temp barely makes it under 20.

All schools will be closed Thursday.  Not even a question.

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Just now, Inthepines said:

Ive lived here for 27 of my 33 years and I can tell you flat out that 5-10 degrees with a 30 mph wind is absolutely frigid for this area. A lot of winters the temp barely makes it under 20.

Save your keystrokes. Since people aren't dying from hypothermia taking out their trash or every single water main explodes it's boring and lame. 

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5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

FV3 really blew up this run in a good way. I believe it is the new NAM. 

3 to 5 inches across N VA and DC into MD... nice. Using the TT snow map fwiw for that.  Hope it keeps it up

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Save your keystrokes. Since people aren't dying from hypothermia taking out their trash or every single water main explodes it's boring and lame. 

He really is an awful poster though.  He's one of the few here that make being here unpleasant most of the time.

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2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

dang. Not quite sure why this front doesn't seem to want to work out for Central VA but it really does not. 3K NAM straight blanked me. Still time to change.

The wave tracks right over you. Best dynamics go to your north 

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

3 to 5 inches across N VA and DC into MD... nice. Using the TT snow map fwiw for that.  Hope it keeps it up

Where is Yoder and what did you do to his account?   The real yoder would have been telling us about marginal boundary level temps, it's only advisory level and that it's going to be 70 next week.

Wait...

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