Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: ??? Lost me here. EPS does drop the pv west of the lakes but it is a very quick shot of above normal (3-5 degrees) but that is it. Does the pv ooze east or does it dip and head back n? 12 days ago ens were spitting out insane cold for the period centered around Jan 27 give or take a day. Mean 2m temp anomalies were consistently 10-15 BN. Now look at that period. 27th is actually ~10AN. That's quite a reversal. It gets seasonally cold behind the fropa early next week but nothing like what was being depicted before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I fess up. Last week I brought home 160 of pet-safe icemelter in preparation for the epic fail-bust last weekend. Bringing all that icemelter killed our opportunity to exceed climatology, not only that, the icemelter will absorb enough water vapor to clump into 160 pounds of artificial boulder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does the pv ooze east of dip and head back n? 12 days ago end were spitting out insane cold for the period centered around Jan 27 give or take a day. Mean 2m temp anomalies were consistently 10-15 BN. Now look at that period. 27th is actually ~10AN. That's quite a reversal. It gets seasonally cold behind the fropa early next week but nothing like what was being depicted before. Guess I am just dense but I don't see what you are saying on either the EPS or the GEFS. EPS has a quick shot of warmth on the 29th but that is it. And both the 00z and 06z GEFS are below normal around the 27th. eta: looking at 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 46 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: The 6z looks unimpressive to me. Early next week looks like rain. After that is fantasy time. It's been showing all kinds of inconsistency in the long range. i thought you were reaped? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Scanning through the EPS members, it seems there is a pretty even spread of to far north, direct hits, and south of our region for the 6-10 day period. I think it's silly to right off because of GFS run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, LP08 said: Scanning through the EPS members, it seems there is a pretty even spread of to far north, direct hits, and south of our region for the 6-10 day period. I think it's silly to right off because of GFS run. I’m writing it off based on a very accurate telleconnection I’ve developed over the years called the JB BS index. Within the last 24 hours he has wasted a significant amount of time arguing about the EXACT low temperature in NYC and Chicago during one day transient cold shots as if it’s REALLY important and as if people actually give a sh!t whether it’s 4 or -1 degrees. That puts the JBBS index at extremely high levels which is a bad sign for snow prospects in the 95 corridor. I’ve found the JBBS index to have one of the highest negative correlations to snow of every telleconnection! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’m writing it off based on a very accurate telleconnection I’ve developed over the years called the JB BS index. Within the last 24 hours he has wasted a significant amount of time arguing about the EXACT low temperature in NYC and Chicago during one day transient cold shots as if it’s REALLY important and as if people actually give a sh!t whether it’s 4 or -1 degrees. That puts the JBBS index at extremely high levels which is a bad sign for snow prospects in the 95 corridor. I’ve found the JBBS index to have one of the highest negative correlations to snow of every telleconnection! Maybe we should just say that it looks like 93, that seems be a better JBI (JB Index) to correlate to storm that will end up looking nothing like 93 and boom! South and snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe we should just say that it looks like 93, that seems be a better JBI (JB Index) to correlate to storm that will end up looking nothing like 93 and boom! South and snow! Lol he pulls out 93 EVERYTIME there is a deep trough in the east. It’s crazy. I can’t remember a single winter he didn’t throw that analog out just because a somewhat deep trough was coming. How does that keep working? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: While u r correct it is active, the 6z GFS is a 50 shades of fail run and has almost every conceivable scenario thru the run in which could possibly just miss out on all the action. Eventually you would think one wave will break for us. It is an incredibly heart breaking run. Everyone gets snow but our immediate area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is an incredibly heart breaking run. Everyone gets snow but our immediate area. Perfect. Going on the long range busts of this winter our immediate area will get shellacked and everyone else will get nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 It kind of looks like the NAO is going negative here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Mercifully the GFS appears to be delayed on TT. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS looks close to something bigger 180-200, pretty good vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Pretty ominous looking pattern on the 12z GFS. Look at this Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Pretty ominous looking pattern on the 12z GFS. Look at this Gulf low. 1993 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1993 It's beautiful man. It would take little shift for a full phase up the coast, and look at that moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's beautiful man. It would take little shift for a full phase, and look at that moisture! I don't even think there is a remaining ens member with that scenario. You should have been here a few days ago when it looked unimous irt phasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's beautiful man. It would take little shift for a full phase up the coast, and look at that moisture! I know...people gotta prepare man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Geez. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Geez. lol. Awww...just missed. Only needed 60 mb and 500 miles and boom! Oh well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Awww...just missed. Only needed 60 mb and 500 miles and boom! Oh well Awwww cheeeeeese and crackers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS looks close to something bigger 180-200, pretty good vort pass. 12z GFS puts up a pretty nice west based block during that time.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 12z GFS puts up a pretty nice west based block during that time.... @poolz1 is this the second or third in a row from the GFS with this? Thanks Also how long does it last ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, frd said: @poolz1 is this the second or third in a row from the GFS with this? Thanks Also how long does it last ? Doesnt last long...by D10/11 it degrades pretty quick. But...op run post D10. So, happy hour will probably be dif..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Doesnt last long...by D10/11 it degrades pretty quick. But...op run post D10. So, happy hour will probably be dif..lol Interesting , in the Good old days of 2003 it would form and last 14 days and retrograde. You could back then count on the -NAO to help with the pattern predictions and forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, frd said: Interesting , in the Good old days of 2003 it would form and last 14 days and retrograde. You could back then count on the -NAO to help with the pattern predictions and forecasts. That’s before NOAA and the Illuminati changed the weather rules to permanently nerf high pressures. Now a 1010mb “area of scattered showers” can easily shove aside a 1040mb arctic high like a chump and ram straight into Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, frd said: Interesting , in the Good old days of 2003 it would form and last 14 days and retrograde. You could back then count on the -NAO to help with the pattern predictions and forecasts. Its really not a legit block. With the TPV rotating around and continuously spinning off lobes, transient ridging pops in the NAO domain, but then gets displaced by another vortex rotating through. That said, do this enough and eventually something could time up-a southern wave moving across with a vortex near 50-50 and +heights above it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Doesnt last long...by D10/11 it degrades pretty quick. But...op run post D10. So, happy hour will probably be dif..lol dunno the idea that the pattern will break down quick has been rock solid on all guidance and moving closer in time for 4/5 days now. At this point "maybe its wrong" is becoming a less convincing argument. I think the better hope is we score something before and then its a quick reshuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its really not a legit block. With the TPV rotating around and continuously spinning off lobes, transient ridging pops in the NAO domain, but then gets displaced by another vortex rotating through. That said, do this enough and eventually something could time up- with a vortex near 50-50 and +heights above it. yea... I made that graphics post in the long range thread about it...the ridging up there in the medium range isnt actually a block its just an extension of the ridge from the atlantic over the top of the displaced 50/50 but its not a dominant feature and is bossed around as the strong TPV rotates around up there. We could time something up but the windows will be much shorter than if we had a true stable nao block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, PhineasC said: That’s before NOAA and the Illuminati changed the weather rules to permanently nerf high pressures. Now a 1010mb “area of scattered showers” can easily shove aside a 1040mb arctic high like a chump and ram straight into Canada. Very true, the illuminati have indeed changed the equation. Once what was possible is now inversly improbable. The laws of physics as we know them have evolved. Blocks are not blocks, but some fluid transparent element, no doubt orhestrated by Mr Smith. Ha ha but really it is what psu and CAPE said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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