poolz1 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: dunno the idea that the pattern will break down quick has been rock solid on all guidance and moving closer in time for 4/5 days now. At this point "maybe its wrong" is becoming a less convincing argument. I think the better hope is we score something before and then its a quick reshuffle. Dont disagree with that at all. Though, I will say..."maybe it's wrong" is the best way to approach any panel on an op run post D10 and here lately that seems to apply to ens runs as well. But saying its probably wrong does no imply that the only other option is epic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Canadian is so close at 120 to giving us a decent Miller B, and then hits the no-snow-dome* around our region, and the LP slips north. *this is the technical term for the feature being described Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Some thoughts: Seeing that we'll have some cold anomalies hanging around here the next 6-10 days and potential "bootleg blocking" I think our best chance for accumulating snow in dc/metro is a redeveloping clipper. When looking at the gefs means our best chance at 500mb (Imo) is a vort that swings down on the NS and then (times) hits a bootleg block. The +pna will add favorability to this idea considering the ridge is riding high all the way to almost Alaska for crying out loud. Additionally, if a vort can dig hard enough in the NS and then have just a slight and brief relaxation in the pna, then we might be able to get that thing to turn the coast and get a 3-6" deal. The most logical outcome though, however, is it turns too early and rides the gradient that might be in the wrong place (if the WAR is still pushing back). Just an idea, but to summarize 1) cold air, 2) +pna 3) NS vort digs, 4) bootleg block = 3-6" The thing is we probably wouldn't see the details of this scenario till like 72-112 hours out. If that idea does even exist Wouldn't that be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: yea... I made that graphics post in the long range thread about it...the ridging up there in the medium range isnt actually a block its just an extension of the ridge from the atlantic over the top of the displaced 50/50 but its not a dominant feature and is bossed around as the strong TPV rotates around up there. We could time something up but the windows will be much shorter than if we had a true stable nao block. Yeah and as we have discussed, it remains to be seen if a stable block ever develops. I know we both have doubts, as does Showme I think. Since the Nino is essentially a fail, the late winter -NAO teleconnection doesn't really work. My optimism for legit NA block developing was based largely on that idea. I think we are probably going to have to settle for something transient/ semi-stable, maybe a few days or a week, and hope a significant wave moves up during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Some thoughts: Seeing that we'll have some cold anomalies hanging around here the next 6-10 days and potential "bootleg blocking" I think our best chance for accumulating snow in dc/metro is a redeveloping clipper. When looking at the gefs means our best chance at 500mb (Imo) is a vort that swings down on the NS and then (times) hits a bootleg block. The +pna will add favorability to this idea considering the ridge is riding high all the way to almost Alaska for crying out loud. Additionally, if a vort can dig hard enough in the NS and then have just a slight and brief relaxation in the pna, then we might be able to get that thing to turn the coast and get a 3-6" deal. The most logical outcome though, however, is it turns too early and rides the gradient that might be in the wrong place (if the WAR is still pushing back). Just an idea, but to summarize 1) cold air, 2) +pna 3) NS port digs, 4) bootleg block = 3-6" The thing is we probably wouldn't see the details of this scenario till like 72-112 hours out. If that idea does even exist Wouldn't that be nice Good points, and this is something to think about as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: Good points, and this is something to think about as well. Sorry, I don't follow. I don't know what RMMs means so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Sorry, I don't follow. I don't know what RMMs means so MJO charts/forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Sorry, I don't follow. I don't know what RMMs means so Sorry, HM is stating that different MJO charts and forecasts will vary in the predictions of where the MJO will head. To add to that not only might the phase be forecasted incorrectly but the amplitude might be incorrect as well. Models use the MJO in the forecasts they generate, as you know, and a slightly off amp can cause issues, let alone the incorrect forecast of what phase the MJO will be in say two weeks from now. To simply look at what a model is forecastig for the MJO and not to consider other tools in addition, plus the weather pattern and evolution will lead to an incorrect forecast.This winter, so far, the MJO forecasts have been a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: Sorry, HM is stating that different MJO charts and forecasts will vary in the predictions of where the MJO will head. To add to that not only might the phase be forecasted incorrectly but the amplitude might be incorrect as well. Models use the MJO in the forecasts they generate, as you know, and a slightly off amp can cause issues, let alone the incorrect forecast of what phase the MJO will be in say two weeks from now. To simply look at what a model is forecastig for the MJO and not to consider other tools in addition, plus the weather pattern and evolution will lead to an incorrect forecast.This winter, so far, the MJO forecasts have been a big issue. Got it. Yes, that makes sense.. good point. And the mjo has seemed to be tough to predict this year and each model has handled it very differently. I saw the recent gfs (I believe) push us into a more favorable phase (7?). My knowledge base ends at the definition of mjo and to a much lesser extent do I know how to integrate its content. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: MJO charts/forecasts ah, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 More to ponder But one thing seems certain a DIVE in the AO to rather negative soon, but it seems the SSWE has a role in the not so negative NAO, per Amy. Jason Furtado @wxjay 2h2 hours ago More Replying to @DrAHButler Nice analysis. Yeah, the way that the polar vortex split - I think this is directly resulting in a downward propagation of a similar signal, which wasn't quite a strong -NAO. That's why you still see cold in Europe and North America, but not necessarily a Greenland block. Damien @Acouphene57 2h2 hours ago More Replying to @DrAHButler Hi, Is this lack of correlation between AO and NAO frequent ? Amy H Butler @DrAHButler 2m42 minutes ago I've definitely seem them diverge before on synoptic timescales. Usually they're highly correlated on monthly and longer timescales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Euro looks awfully similar to tonight and tomorrows rainstorm with a back end snow threat early next week. We have seen those play out all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Euro looks awfully similar to tonight and tomorrows rainstorm with a back end snow threat early next week. We have seen those play out all winter. Really remarkable how every storm recently seems to look the same and take the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 euro is cold but where is the active storm track bob promised? day 10 lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 we really need that midweek system to dig next week. Its not that far from producing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we really need that midweek system to dig next week. Its not that far from producing How is a low over Detroit not far from producing? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 wow what a dreadful euro run if you want fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: wow what a dreadful euro run if you want fun Yup. Absolutely nothing to track in what should be prime winter. Unfortunately looks like we head into a dry pattern after next week’s rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: Yup. Absolutely nothing to track in what should be prime winter. Unfortunately looks like we head into a dry pattern after next week’s rain. lol we have 9.5 days of cold in the next 10 and the .5 of it is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol we have 9.5 days of cold in the next 10 and the .5 of it is rain Just the way this winter is going. Laugh about it and move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 @frd they are just confirming what we were talking about earlier that the tpv where it is is destructive to our chances at an NAO. Now they are going further and linking causality to the sswe. Ain’t that the kick in the nads. So the sswe didn’t save us it killed our epic pattern! I don’t actually know. I’m not going to pretend to say the sswe is why the tpv is there, they are the “experts” but I do know it being there is killing our chances at meaningful blocking and the epo ridge is not centered in a good location for us absent blocking. That one fail changed “epic” to “serviceable” at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Too many unproven indexes used and offered as the savior or the destructor. After being lambasted about my “10 days away” commentary which I began around Christmas, I have turned out to be exactly right. MJO and SSW and NAO either in tandem or cherry picked are simply unproven as to outcomes for our area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @frd they are just confirming what we were talking about earlier that the tpv where it is is destructive to our chances at an NAO. Now they are going further and linking causality to the sswe. Ain’t that the kick in the nads. So the sswe didn’t save us it killed our epic pattern! I don’t actually know. I’m not going to pretend to say the sswe is why the tpv is there, they are the “experts” but I do know it being there is killing our chances at meaningful blocking and the epo ridge is not centered in a good location for us absent blocking. That one fail changed “epic” to “serviceable” at best. we would of been better off not having this PV split. We have not seen cold from it...we have not seen snow from it except for a fluke that gave you flurries. What has it given us? The split occured in late December and January has been warm. The next 10 days are gonna be cold but we get some cold every winter no matter what. I 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Ji said: we would of been better off not having this PV split. We have not seen cold from it...we have not seen snow from it except for a fluke that gave you flurries. What has it given us? The split occured in late December and January has been warm. The next 10 days are gonna be cold but we get some cold every winter no matter what. I Agreed. I never understood the hype of SSWE. They rarely help and hurt more often than not. Will be really interesting to study all the things that made this winter fail so badly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Too many unproven indexes used and offered as the savior or the destructor. After being lambasted about my “10 days away” commentary which I began around Christmas, I have turned out to be exactly right. MJO and SSW and NAO either in tandem or cherry picked are simply unproven as to outcomes for our area. I don’t agree about the indices, but I’m with you on this 10 days away business. That’s for the birds now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2019 Author Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: I don’t agree about the indices, but I’m with you on this 10 days away business. That’s for the birds now. except there is nothing 10 days away except for a pattern break down potentially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said: move on Take your own advice and make this your final post here 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: except there is nothing 10 days away except for a pattern break down potentially I know it's really hard to imagine given their impeccable track record d5+ but there's always a slim possibility the models aren't accurate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 I like that the it will be cold enough....let's see what happens while it is. I wish it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2019 Share Posted January 23, 2019 Just now, Snowstorm5921 said: I don’t control the weather Bob. Direct your anger elsewhere. I have zero anger whatsoever. I'll spell it our clearly for you though. You apparently 1) lack reading comprehension skills 2) enjoy being somewhere where not a single person enjoys your company 3) don't have an ounce of common courtesy or respect 4) contribute absolutely nothing on a daily basis 5) really want to be banned for some reason 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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