pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, djr5001 said: I think GFS ended up right for the wrong reasons for that one - none of the models handled how far out from center of main system the warm air push was occurring. GFS I believe had a more northern track which was going to allow for rain anyway. The signs were there the day before that warm air was pushing well out and away from center of system so that is one thing I want to watch today - how well models are handling the 700/850/etc layer temps to the south as precip is inching northward. absolutely. You got the right idea bud. If the column warms a little more or a little sooner, than the colorful maps will lose some color no doubt. I think we have a little wiggle, but not a lot w/ this. Still thing Mag to ITP is best line for best accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS is out and it is still a major snow for much of Central PA....not so much to the east but I remember lots of people suggesting the GFS's ability to properly maintain and forecast CAD is an issue. Either way here it is for anyone waiting. This is at 33 hours just after we lost 700MB in and near the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 58 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: leaving the snow capital of the east to come to the nickel and dime land known as the Susquehanna valley. hope you enjoy your stay and maybe you'll bring us some good luck. I grew up in Lancaster...so I know the drill. This winter has been FAR from spectacular on the Tug... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I grew up in Lancaster...so I know the drill. This winter has been FAR from spectacular on the Tug... well at least your not alone. I still look at your snow cams far more than you look at mine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, paweather said: Between 12z and 18z it will need to produce 3-5", 4-8" after that we go to a sleet/FRZ storm. Ive spent less time in the MA forums, but i bet they are gettin a bit nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Ive spent less time in the MA forums, but i bet they are gettin a bit nervous. They are and funny enough they were talking about whether someone was gonna hit 12+ just yesterday. Now they are freaking out that they may only see 3-5 and I'm over here hoping to beat our season high of 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Ive spent less time in the MA forums, but i bet they are gettin a bit nervous. I haven't been in the MA forum for months now. Winters over post ugh, but I do like Bob so very knowledgeable folks in there. Should someone start a new thread or is that a jinx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Here is CTP’s latest snow map at 1035am I wonder when they upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, paweather said: I haven't been in the MA forum for months now. Winters over post ugh, but I do like Bob so very knowledgeable folks in there. Should someone start a new thread or is that a jinx? i'm superstitious. I'm not starting a new thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is CTP’s latest snow map at 1035am I wonder when they upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning? 2PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, sauss06 said: i'm superstitious. I'm not starting a new thread Neither am I! LOL. I suggested being at 70 pages but scared to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: They are and funny enough they were talking about whether someone was gonna hit 12+ just yesterday. Now they are freaking out that they may only see 3-5 and I'm over here hoping to beat our season high of 3. This is why I always want it to rain there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is CTP’s latest snow map at 1035am I wonder when they upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning? My guess would be after euro run 1-2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Isn't there a shift change at 1 p.m.? My guess is they wait for the evening team to come in/analyze/hoist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is CTP’s latest snow map at 1035am I wonder when they upgrade us to a Winter Storm Warning? That to me looks like they think it’s a southern special and aren’t buying the 12z shift north. Somerset to raystown special verbatim. Still think areas just north to say state college get it good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Quick ob its 31/6 here. I love seeing the dews so low before the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Isn't there a shift change at 1 p.m.? My guess is they wait for the evening team to come in/analyze/hoist. 130-2 it will likely come out as they ingest noon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Quick ob its 31/6 here. I love seeing the dews so low before the event. That's a great ob. DP maps confirm singles and low teens for the whole state. I think the GFS depiction of the surface getting above freezing tomorrow is very suspect....for the eastern 2/3 of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I see @MillvilleWxis posting in the MA thread but ignoring us - his old friends. What do you predict up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I know it’s the hrrr at range but you can’t hate that look. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I see [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention]is posting in the MA thread but ignoring us - his old friends. What do you predict up here? Hey Canderson! You sent the bat signal lol. I’ve been posting in that thread and looking into my home area more since I have a lot of family friends down there that ask for my forecasts. So I stay in tuned. I was actually going to pop in this evening and give you my thoughts after I look at more up there. Been busy with NWS. I go for my radar certification next week in Norman and actually take my Workshop Primer today. I’ll give y’all the scoop tonight! Looks snowy and icy, that’s for sure. Talk to you all tonight! . 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: GFS is out and it is still a major snow for much of Central PA....not so much to the east but I remember lots of people suggesting the GFS's ability to properly maintain and forecast CAD is an issue. Either way here it is for anyone waiting. This is at 33 hours just after we lost 700MB in and near the LSV. Last night We was loosing the cold at 39 hours. 49 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That to me looks like they think it’s a southern special and aren’t buying the 12z shift north. Somerset to raystown special verbatim. Still think areas just north to say state college get it good Nut I agree it looks like State College is in a pretty good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 if the jet stream is any indication of the type of snowfall rates we get from this storm we are in good shape :-) https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/19/flight-reaches-mph-furious-jet-stream-packs-record-breaking-speeds/?fbclid=IwAR3j88PnJ3E6NNw7zRAl3A59mE62A5gyANsyVa99nqxiSvX6t5CKW_5jUtU&noredirect=on&utm_term=.875ed8410405 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey Canderson! You sent the bat signal lol. I’ve been posting in that thread and looking into my home area more since I have a lot of family friends down there that ask for my forecasts. So I stay in tuned. I was actually going to pop in this evening and give you my thoughts after I look at more up there. Been busy with NWS. I go for my radar certification next week in Norman and actually take my Workshop Primer today. I’ll give y’all the scoop tonight! Looks snowy and icy, that’s for sure. Talk to you all tonight! . Good Luck! Wish you well! I have appreciated your input (and missed it). Can't wait to see what you say tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12Z Euro snow depth maps are out. I was asked to provide a before and after so below is the snow map as of this afternoon and following it is the snow map in 33 hours when the column has collpased for most of PA and we are icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The 12z Euro is locked in ! Here is another view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro is locked in ! Here is another view. Looks the same. I’m going with Upper Strasburg for the win. There’s a retired CTP met that lives there and always reports in. He prob sees 10-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro is locked in ! Here is another view. I’d lock that in if I could...6-7 inches would be a huge win for us out this way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Final call... Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area. It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different). Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome. My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of this is before ice. The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. @Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86 7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area. @MAG5035 6-8" @CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7" @canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6" @Wmsptwx @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 I know we are focused on this event for tomorrow but the Euro really just went big for next Tuesday night into Wednesday! Too bad it is a week away! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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