Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah, I'd think Seven Springs, Raystown, Magville and of course that cashtown snowhog would have best chance at crackin a double digit number (and 10-11" would me max IMO). With antecedent cold I always get concerned at how long it can hold, and as currently modeled, you need best forcing before column becomes marginal, and thats a couple hour window. This isnt CCB's, so ratios would likely be 10:1, maybe 12:1 for a short period of time. Again, I'm not being a Deb, I'm being honest w/ myself and keeping expectations in check (one only needs to look back to last weeks bust and realize that this storm shares similarities), but as a whole still has better potential. Its a nice storm all the same, and in this tough winter in the LSV, I'll take it just as modeled. Thanks for the shout out Nut. What beer do you drink high life? Get a 12 pack set back and watch it snow. It’s coming for you !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The storm in mid January had the euro giving us a foot the night before it rained all day. The GFS completely nailed that storm. I don’t follow your area that close, did it lock on that idea for consecutive runs or was it a one run wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, AllWeather said: I think you guys have a pretty good handle on it. Reminds me of the November storm. I like 4-8” across the LSV before changing over. More in northern/western spots, especially at elevations. I’ve always tends to underperform from models but could see some 0.25” amounts with a few spots more than that in the typical sheltered “bowls”. Good morning AllWeather Good seeing you in here, thanks for your thoughts on the storm! You sure have had a tough winter, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: How about the euro. It has been rock steady for 3 days now. When it’s locked in like that, I wouldn’t bet against it. Yeah a compromise between it and the unwaivering NAM is a great event no doubt. The continuity surely lifts one spirits to the likeliness that "its happening". One thing i do like is that 40S is in the game, so that tells me were not sitting on the razor this time. Even if we dont get best lift/forcing, we still get into some decent snow and a few hours of sleet, then a brief transition to zr before we flip to non frozen at the tail end. For this kind of setup, thats about as good as one should expect w/ retreating HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, daxx said: We really need this to come in hot and heavy from the start. If we wait for the heavy precip, 700s will be cooked by the time good precip gets here. Just me worrying I hope. I totally agree w/ you. Still looks like 2-3 hour window for thump so rack em up quick and pray for every hour after to hold onto snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/# WPC really sends the juice. Southern tier hits the 1.5 to 1.75 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The storm in mid January had the euro giving us a foot the night before it rained all day. The GFS completely nailed that storm. ^^^^ why we need to temper expectations. Wasnt the Euro a little wobbly in the knees w/ that one tho? Its been a rock for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Thanks for the shout out Nut. What beer do you drink high life? Get a 12 pack set back and watch it snow. It’s coming for you !! thats my go staple, but now that we go to beer festies I've broadened my horizons greatly. High life keeps me from getting "fluffy" in the middle....lol Sauss n i both drink it, so we'll come crash your house in celebration of your jackpot. We'll make yellow snowcones for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I don’t follow your area that close, did it lock on that idea for consecutive runs or was it a one run wonder? Two or three days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thats my go staple, but now that we go to beer festies I've broadened my horizons greatly. High life keeps me from getting "fluffy" in the middle....lol Sauss n i both drink it, so we'll come crash your house in celebration of your jackpot. We'll make yellow snowcones for you I have a St. Bernard that sets land mines and turns my snow yellow. Come on over and join the party. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I have a St. Bernard that sets land mines and turns my snow yellow. Come on over and join the party. can you tape a beer to his collar, then he can "save us" when making face down snow angels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Nam continued to advertise a Northern PA max snow accumulations. A bit of a dry slot up into the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 48 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Thanks for the shout out Nut. What beer do you drink high life? Get a 12 pack set back and watch it snow. It’s coming for you !! All the cool guys drink the Champagne of Beers I agree with the others, you sit in a good spot here. I'm trying to determine when the icing starts, looks maybe evening rush hour to me. Is that about right or am i looking all wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Nam continued to advertise a Northern PA max snow accumulations. A bit of a dry slot up into the LSV. Yea... If nam is right the lsv snowfall totals will be a good amount less. I don't like waiting for good precip in this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021912&fh=48 Looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, paweather said: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021912&fh=48 Looks fine to me. Smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, paweather said: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021912&fh=48 Looks fine to me. That includes sleet and who knows what else unfortunately. Here is the map when the snow switches to sleet for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Hey, all. I am at my parents house in Danville this week, so I will be around to join you. Looking forward to being the eyes and ears for this area of the Susquehanna Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, paweather said: https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021912&fh=48 Looks fine to me. I would pay more attention to the upper levels than those snowfall maps. If we get a good band over us early we will do well. If we wait until afternoon the warm air surge at 700mb will cut snowfall totals back. It would be a great sleet storm for awhile. Its just the nam there is plenty of models to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The 6z Euro is still locked in to a good hit got snow for Most of CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, daxx said: I would pay more attention to the upper levels than those snowfall maps. If we get a good band over us early we will do well. If we wait until afternoon the warm air surge at 700mb will cut snowfall totals back. It would be a great sleet storm for awhile. Its just the nam there is plenty of models to go. To Daxx's point, here is the 700MB temp map when the snow is starting to run into issues. The LSV has only had .2 to .3 of qpf fall at this point. Just one model and part of the discussion. In this map the green is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Here is another view of the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 If I get 3" snow followed by hours of sleet I'll be happy as a clam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: That includes sleet and who knows what else unfortunately. Here is the map when the snow switches to sleet for the LSV. I guess its my turn to troll?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I guess its my turn to troll?? My official forecast will be out this afternoon...you can troll off of that :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, all. I am at my parents house in Danville this week, so I will be around to join you. Looking forward to being the eyes and ears for this area of the Susquehanna Valley. leaving the snow capital of the east to come to the nickel and dime land known as the Susquehanna valley. hope you enjoy your stay and maybe you'll bring us some good luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 42 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Smoked You should be smoking a pack of Icon's. Has the elusive purple DBZ snow intensity over or near both of us at 18Z tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: You should be smoking a pack of Icon's. Has the elusive purple DBZ snow intensity over or near both of us at 18Z tomorrow. I think the LSV would sign up for the 12z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I don’t follow your area that close, did it lock on that idea for consecutive runs or was it a one run wonder? I think GFS ended up right for the wrong reasons for that one - none of the models handled how far out from center of main system the warm air push was occurring. GFS I believe had a more northern track which was going to allow for rain anyway. The signs were there the day before that warm air was pushing well out and away from center of system so that is one thing I want to watch today - how well models are handling the 700/850/etc layer temps to the south as precip is inching northward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Between 12z and 18z it will need to produce 3-5", 4-8" after that we go to a sleet/FRZ storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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