canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 NAM to me looks like a real nice thump for basically all of us. Cuts off snow to the south but north of the border unless I’m misreading looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: NAM to me looks like a real nice thump for basically all of us. Cuts off snow to the south but north of the border unless I’m misreading looks solid. Yea looks like 6-10" for LSV just doing the math of 6-8 hrs of moderate to hvy snow. No snow map needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Yea looks like 6-10" for LSV just doing the math of 6-8 hrs of moderate to hvy snow. No snow map needed. Appears it actually get more snow to NYC than DC? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Coming north Snow depth as it is transitioning over to sleet for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Now were talking...Not that i think it will happen but one can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 A lot of sleet on the NAM p-type conditionals hour 45 and 48 frames. Looks a lot like last week in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: I'm gonna end up with a double ice layer snowpack. You can walk on top of the 4-5" pack that's already on the ground without breaking through. Im so jealous. Thats what I love in winter. Mega tough snow pack. Enjoy bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, canderson said: NAM to me looks like a real nice thump for basically all of us. Cuts off snow to the south but north of the border unless I’m misreading looks solid. 0z really does look about as good as we can ask for a storm track like this. HP doing its dirty work on NAM. Starting to feel better, but there's still enough time for this to still go further north, but HP has been modeled to be favorable as Mag alluded to, so I think its gettin close to where its going to happen, and there is some wiggle room to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: A lot of sleet on the NAM p-type conditionals hour 45 and 48 frames. Looks a lot like last week in that regard. Yea, without hourly panels I had to estimate hours of snow. Most of us are good at 42 and not good at 45 so somewhere in between...I believe most of what is on the ground at 45 would be snow. Say it changes at 42 for you and myself, 43-44 for others a bit east then 3-4 hours of moderate top heavy sleet. Really not much freezing rain for central pa but some in the southern LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 What’s good about the NAM is it’s faster - if we can get snow before daybreak it’ll really help. We do have to worry about solar warming nowif rates aren’t heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Yea, without hourly panels I had to estimate hours of snow. Most of us are good at 42 and not good at 45 so somewhere in between...I believe most of what is on the ground at 45 would be snow. Say it changes at 42 for you and myself, 43-44 for others a bit east then 3-4 hours of moderate top heavy sleet. Really not much freezing rain cor central pa but some in the southern LSV. Thats the fear I've always had w/ NAM, it runs a bit cold and verbatim vs 18z we lose 700's a little quicker in 0z run. We lose a few more precious hours and accums will drop of quickly down here before we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, canderson said: What’s good about the NAM is it’s faster - if we can get snow before daybreak it’ll really help. We do have to worry about solar warming nowif rates aren’t heavy. Like stated earlier, its basically a 6 hour window to snow, so its really gonna need to put it down to get more than a few inches down here. As it stands we look good for 3-5 in lanco and maybe 5-7 from the burg and points N and E. Mag and cashtown and KX look to get a beatdown before they taint. 3k also seems to show the quicker erosion vs 18z. Hope that its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The 3k NAM is a CTP bullseye! It looks like heavy snow for 6 hours or so. Then we get a few hours of snow/sleet mix, followed freezing rain at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Like stated earlier, its basically a 6 hour window to snow, so its really gonna need to put it down to get more than a few inches down here. As it stands we look good for 3-5 in lanco and maybe 5-7 from the burg and points N and E. Mag and cashtown and KX look to get a beatdown before they taint. 3k also seems to show the quicker erosion vs 18z. Hope that its wrong. Back in November we got 8 inches of snow in about a 6 hour period from around 10am to 4pm. I think we could do it again on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Back in November we got 8 inches of snow in about a 6 hour period from around 10am to 4pm. I think we could do it again on Wednesday. I am waiting to see if the American Globals continue to move north a tad but really think someone in Adams, Northern York, Cumberland or Dauphin could get a foot out of this just by holding on to snow an extra hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Back in November we got 8 inches of snow in about a 6 hour period from around 10am to 4pm. I think we could do it again on Wednesday. Yeah I remember, and this one could do it. 3k looks really good on front end here in the LSV, but it looks that we transition from sleet to zr a little quicker here, but most of the storm has passed, so I guess its a pack preserver (if it holds). Still over 24 out so Im nervous down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I am waiting to see if the American Globals continue to move north a tad but really think someone in Adams, Northern York, Cumberland or Dauphin could get a foot out of this just by holding on to snow an extra hour or so. I wish i saw that, but 12" is a big number IMO. 8 to 10" lollies yeah, but the progression/erosion of the mids is rather uniform on most guidance. Of course i want to be wrong, but its a tightrope for the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 The ever elusive "Purple DBZ Snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I wish i saw that, but 12" is a big number IMO. 8 to 10" lollies yeah, but the progression/erosion of the mids is rather uniform on most guidance. Of course i want to be wrong, but its a tightrope for the southern tier. 7 hours of 1.5" per hour gets you close. Every storm we get a few big totals in so if we are seeing general 6-10" totals then I bet we hear about some a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: 7 hours of 1.5" per hour gets you close. Every storm we get a few big totals in so if we are seeing general 6-10" totals then I bet we hear about some a bit higher. while your math is correct, I'm not seeing those rates for entire duration of time when column supports snow heres your best panel to get those rates. at 42, best forcing is gone. Verbatim, there is a couple hour window for 1"+ rates. Not being a debbie, cause its gonna snow and be a nice storm, but I'm trying to be reasonable as warm nose is showing up rather consistantly. Again, I wanna be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 19, 2019 Author Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: while your math is correct, I'm not seeing those rates for entire duration of time when column supports snow heres your best panel to get those rates. at 42, best forcing is gone. Verbatim, there is a couple hour window for 1"+ rates. Not being a debbie, cause its gonna snow and be a nice storm, but I'm trying to be reasonable as warm nose is showing up rather consistantly. Again, I wanna be wrong. Well, being in the vicinity of forcing like that would certainly be supportive of 1"+ hour rates, even with temps at that level a warmer than ideal for great snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: while your math is correct, I'm not seeing those rates for entire duration of time when column supports snow heres your best panel to get those rates. at 42, best forcing is gone. Verbatim, there is a couple hour window for 1"+ rates. Not being a debbie, cause its gonna snow and be a nice storm, but I'm trying to be reasonable as warm nose is showing up rather consistantly. Again, I wanna be wrong. Understood but the NAM verbatim averages between 1-1.5" an hour....especially in the counties I mentioned. It is really a nowcast situation with this type of storm anyway so just model discussing. I am seeing 2-3" hour rates just south of PA on the RGEM Icon. A lot will also have to do with ratios and snow growth but I guess my point is that anytime a large area is getting 8 or 9" there is probably someone getting a few inches more. Not going to put 12" in my forecast that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, being in the vicinity of forcing like that would certainly be supportive of 1"+ hour rates, even with temps at that level a warmer than ideal for great snow growth. Totally agree. I'm just saying that adams/york/lanco all show a couple hour window of opp for best thumpage, and even if were only getting 1/2 to 1" per hour outside of that, its nothing to be sour about. Just saying that 12" in those areas is unlikely IMO.......cept for Cashtown. It would NOT suprise me though to get reports of 3" in 1 hour if that forcing verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 FWIW, z germanz house model moved best accums south of MD line, so one model ticked warmer and one colder. #nailbiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 GFS stays the course, nothing much above the MD/PA border at all - MDT might not see 1” snow from it even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS stays the course, nothing much above the MD/PA border at all - MDT might not see 1” snow from it even. Looks like GFS is 2-4 for MDT but yea not a big snow by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Looks like GFS is 2-4 for MDT but yea not a big snow by any means. Looked like it was flipping before that to me but my eyes suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: GFS stays the course, nothing much above the MD/PA border at all yep, looks similar to Z Icon w/ best snowfalls being south of MD line. Still think were in a decent spot in LSV to I80 as tomorrow I think it comes back north, but thats based of history, not forecasting skill...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 19, 2019 Share Posted February 19, 2019 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: A lot of sleet on the NAM p-type conditionals hour 45 and 48 frames. Looks a lot like last week in that regard. At Hour 39 700 temps don't look bad...but as you mentioned before, 700 is pretty warm by hour 45 -48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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