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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Northern tier might make a comeback. Everything is working against us but we still have a path to victory. Keep your expectations low and your umbrella handy. Miracles do happen but we used one up last weekend so do whatever it takes to make this one pad some stats. 

 

give us your keys to victory like Steve and phil Chenier do. Although they have a much harder job

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

why are we talking about it in the long range thread. One more Euro shift like that, and we will be back into a winter storm(which was stolen from us btw---remember Euro had 30 inches for us)

 

 

image.png

Does that count sleet and zr as snow? If not, it's already looking pretty good for the M/D crowd.

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

why are we talking about it in the long range thread. One more Euro shift like that, and we will be back into a winter storm(which was stolen from us btw---remember Euro had 30 inches for us)

good luck!  Over in Columbus we're just thankful this thing developed a vestigial tail

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Northern tier might make a comeback. Everything is working against us but we still have a path to victory. Keep your expectations low and your umbrella handy. Miracles do happen but we used one up last weekend so do whatever it takes to make this one pad some stats. 

 

Keep the ball down and let's turn two!!

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That is an image from Member 41 of the 12z Euro ensemble at HR 96, 12z Sunday.  It is showing everyone north of US 50 below freezing at the surface.  It's a great image, but just one out of 51 members.

Better odds vs the powerball ........ I take it ! 

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These would be my reasons for optimism, but even so I would currently say 30% chance of 5" snowfall as far south as I-95. A lot of things have to go right to get this to be a mostly snow event in this area.

First thing would be for the leading wave to drop 1-3" snow over the bare ground between your fading snow pack and the more permanent one further north. 

Second good sign is that the weekend low will form out of the base of another Pacific low swerving north, so is not going to be subject to easy modelling for several days yet. Looking west, there is remnant snow cover from the last event to weaken warm air advection into the plains states. Every degree south we can find this low forming over OK-AR the better your chances. 

Third positive thought is that another potent arctic high is coming into play for the weekend storm and each model I looked at seems to respond a bit sluggishly to the possibility of cold air building up over PA-NJ into the mid-Atlantic region in advance of the storm. Old school, one would draw the arctic front quite a bit further south than the 0 C 850 isotherm which tells me that this weekend storm could be running into some well-entrenched colder air. 

Fourth good sign is the steady deepening trend for central pressure after the low reaches TN. A steadily deepening low will continue to pull in the cold air on the east side of the mountains until it reaches south-central VA. This should allow some early portion of the precip to be snow. If we can find (I don't like to say get because that's a bogus process) -- if we can find this low just edging south of the model tracks, continuing to deepen nicely, then it could drop 8-12 inches of snow at least north of I-95. 

A lot of things have to go right. But then they all did last weekend. 

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