• Member Statistics

    15,884
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WXMal4
    Newest Member
    WXMal4
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
40/70 Benchmark

Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were

And to think TWC had 3+ feet for part of the area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models have temps near or below 0 midday Monday according to Ryan 

I'll take the over on the Euro 2m temps. MEX is 14F at BDL. Maybe shave a few off of that for the anomalous low level cold?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, its fair to question how much we are availing of this weak el nino at the moment.

We'll just have to revisit when all is said and done.

Good post.

Agreed.  Keep doing what you're doing and I'll butt into the discussion every so often when I'm bored in my head and need some mental stimulation.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'll take the over on the Euro 2m temps. MEX is 14F at BDL. Maybe shave a few off of that for the anomalous low level cold?

ECMWF is -25C at 925 on Monday midday here. That's pretty good. I bet we're in the single digits through the day. 

Maybe a midnight high too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, wxextreme said:

With this, here is the departures from normal snow totals:

mid-winter sdpt map

But NNE is having a great season though......................:blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

ECMWF is -25C at 925 on Monday midday here. That's pretty good. I bet we're in the single digits through the day. 

Maybe a midnight high too. 

Yeah...925 is pretty anomalous. There will be fresh pack upstream as well so little modification of the cold and any sun on Monday will be working against a high albedo. I'd probably lean with the midnight high there and the daytime peaking around 8-10F. BDL only has a little over a handful of days with highs under 5F on record though. Looks like 8F is the record from 1985.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were

shouldn't have bought any hype anyways.  most on here were cautioning against such totals.

regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can we start pulling down those 18-24" total now? what a hype storm. 9" modeled is a joke from where we were

shouldn't have bought any hype anyways.  most on here were cautioning against such totals.

regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Ray,

What do the arrows represent?  

Judging by the looks of the arrows, they represent Ray's limited skill in the Apple Preview app he uses to make the maps. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

You shouldn't have bought those amounts.  I think 10-15 is a virtual lock though

then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tunafish said:

shouldn't have bought any hype anyways.  most on here were cautioning against such totals.

regardless, classic Lava "meh-ing" a storm before it even gets underway.

:lol:you got me there

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Lava Rock said:

then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC.

Maybe he saw and got lost in the kuchie?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Ginxy's scrolls. 

Unfortunately I lost access to those,  was the best part of my job reading weather reports hand written or orally transcribed from settlers and native Americans from the 1600 and 1700s

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

You shouldn't have bought those amounts.  I think 10-15 is a virtual lock though

I've had 12-18" for here for the last few days, No reason to change, We will have a few hours of 12:1+ ratios, Then 10:1.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

ECMWF is -25C at 925 on Monday midday here. That's pretty good. I bet we're in the single digits through the day. 

Maybe a midnight high too. 

Yeah one of those deals where the advection terms almost entirely dictate the diurnals ...   daily low at 1pm ha

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC.

The quest for ratings factors in.  All of the TV news stations are well aware of what their competition is forecasting for snow totals. Even in less competitive markets people at the station  are well aware that more people are going to watch the broadcast if the forecast is for 18-24 as opposed to 8-12. At one time it cost more to place a commercial leading into or coming out of the weather segment. The higher the ratings for that segment means the more money that can be charged. I'm not sure if that is still the case or not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

leading into the weather portion of the 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

But NNE is having a great season though......................:blink:

18-24" of snow OTG in N New Hampshire and Cannon/Bretton Woods 99% opened. Not bad for Mid-January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

The quest for ratings factors in.  All of the TV news stations are well aware of what their competition is forecasting for snow totals. Even in less competitive markets people at the station  are well aware that more people are going to watch the broadcast if the forecast is for 18-24 as opposed to 8-12. At one time it cost more to place a commercial leading into or coming out of the weather segment. The higher the ratings for that segment means the more money that can be charged. I'm not sure if that is still the case or not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

leading into the weather portion of the 

Where i do tend to agree with some of the above, The credibility factor comes in to play as well, Mets already get a bad rap, But to be consistently wrong to try to drive up the ratings, In time would have a negative effect.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've had 12-18" for here for the last few days, No reason to change, We will have a few hours of 12:1+ ratios, Then 10:1.

Lots of people among "the public" up here throwing around 18-24 totals, probably based on one forecast or range they heard about -- and/or TWC hype. Once those numbers are out there it's hard to walk them back. Sensible impacts will obviously be about the same, and it'll probably blow around so much that it'll be hard to tell the difference.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

then why do news places including Gutner at wcsh show 18-24" amounts. Does he really believe what he is forecasting or is he looking for ratings like TWC.

You'd have to ask him why he is forecasting that much.  It's not a surprise models are ratcheting down the qpf if you pay attention to the knowledgeable folks here.  12" is great, let's enjoy it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, PWMan said:

Lots of people among "the public" up here throwing around 18-24 totals, probably based on one forecast or range they heard about -- and/or TWC hype. Once those numbers are out there it's hard to walk them back. Sensible impacts will obviously be about the same, and it'll probably blow around so much that it'll be hard to tell the difference.

I made the mistake of sharing the mega BOX map  here at work.  I put in a line about don't expect these totals, cut them in half, etc.

Many were still asking me today if we were going to get 2+ feet...

:axe:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Unfortunately I lost access to those,  was the best part of my job reading weather reports hand written or orally transcribed from settlers and native Americans from the 1600 and 1700s

That is truly a tragedy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PWMan said:

Lots of people among "the public" up here throwing around 18-24 totals, probably based on one forecast or range they heard about -- and/or TWC hype. Once those numbers are out there it's hard to walk them back. Sensible impacts will obviously be about the same, and it'll probably blow around so much that it'll be hard to tell the difference.

Duration and amount of qpf drives the bus, Those are the two limiting factors that dictate final amounts, The ratios need to be factored, But if you looking at 1.3" qpf and you think your getting 24" out of that's 18.5:1, Not happening James, Especially the closer one gets to the coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The quest for ratings factors in.  All of the TV news stations are well aware of what their competition is forecasting for snow totals. Even in less competitive markets people at the station  are well aware that more people are going to watch the broadcast if the forecast is for 18-24 as opposed to 8-12. At one time it cost more to place a commercial leading into or coming out of the weather segment. The higher the ratings for that segment means the more money that can be charged. I'm not sure if that is still the case or not.

 

 

I don't know any mets who would purposefully forecast incorrect snowfall amounts for ratings. Credibility matters too. I could see putting out some prelim snowfall totals to drive interest, but you want to try and make them accurate as possible.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I made the mistake of sharing the mega BOX map  here at work.  I put in a line about don't expect these totals, cut them in half, etc.

Many were still asking me today if we were going to get 2+ feet...

:axe:

I can't help but think that's one reason some outlets put out those aggressive maps: they know people are going to copy/paste and send them around to their family and friends. Obviously that's not a motivation for NWS, but I can't help but think that it factors into the local news stations' thinking. Weather is one of the few reasons many people watch local programming anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Where i do tend to agree with some of the above, The credibility factor comes in to play as well, Mets already get a bad rap, But to be consistently wrong to try to drive up the ratings, In time would have a negative effect.

There is a difference being consistently wrong and starting out with a high total and scaling back.  Happens all the time. The general public is happier when snow totals verify lower than forecasted as oppose to higher than forecasted.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't know any mets who would purposefully forecast incorrect snowfall amounts for ratings. Credibility matters too. I could see putting out some prelim snowfall totals to drive interest, but you want to try and make them accurate as possible.

I don't think they're intentionally incorrect, but in my experience there often seems to be a tendency to go with wide ranges that include eye-popping high ends. This morning, for example, I saw a few maps showing the majority of the state of Maine in a "10-20" band. That's quite a range, and people will naturally fixate on the 20.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.