MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still very tough to bet against Harvey. Even last night he wasn't backing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: At this rate it looks like the warm air may win out verses Artic air. Pretty much an1980's winter. Favorable tracks but poor thermals. Should have fired up the iroc-z and put on my bucs... f this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks more and more likely the Gfs was right. Other models are showing similar thermal profiles. Could be a CNE exclusive. It won’t be right in the low levels. I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 These melts are based on the gfs right? Just want to make sure we are following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The problem is it's a very fleeting Artic air mass. Not classic or favorable where it's strong and keeps the storm from turning due northeast instead of keeping it on a east/northeasterly track instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Save a horse. Wait for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I hope it happens... crickets in here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 its over 50's and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I've been referring to the GFS, but it's lately seeming to get a lot of support. Seems like NAM/Harvey vs the rest. The track is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, MarkO said: Still very tough to bet against Harvey. Even last night he wasn't backing down. I'm with him...even these NW models are still giving 6-8" for the pike. But the synoptic setup has me leaning that the WAA is going to have to fight pretty hard to eventually make progress, so I'm hedging a bit colder on the actual outcome and it seems like Harvey is too. We'll probably get the messenger shuffle inside 24 hours too givne this is not a phased system with an arctic airmass to the north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It won’t be right in the low levels. I guarantee it. Well, the surface low does need to track south of us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 i wait for the EURO, the GFS track does not make sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 back to a rain/CFP event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Again...toss the surface crap aside... But when talking about a battle wrt midlevels and synoptics, do you want the euro on your side or the NCEP duo? It's hard to toss the euro when it is steadfast for more than one run...especially with how the GFS is performing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm with him...even these NW models are still giving 6-8" for the pike. But the synoptic setup has me leaning that the WAA is going to have to fight pretty hard to eventually make progress, so I'm hedging a bit colder on the actual outcome and it seems like Harvey is too. We'll probably get the messenger shuffle inside 24 hours too givne this is not a phased system with an arctic airmass to the north of it. how similar is this to the storm in November, I seem to remember the models doing this as well...I ended up with 8 inches in that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW. Latent heat release pumping up heights ahead of storm. Always a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FWIW, the GFS is still ~5" of snow in S CT before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Well, the surface low does need to track south of us, right? There's basically no chance it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Never discount it. Rarely, not Never... Its had its share of faux pas also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 One massive icestorm after 6-8” of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: Will be back down to four posters posting. I'll be hanging in here. 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: These melts are based on the gfs right? Just want to make sure we are following. Yes--and all the exuberance of late was over the NAM. Make sure we're following that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Latent heat release pumping up heights ahead of storm. Always a risk. And was discussed, You can see them rising out ahead of that s/w trying to move north @H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can we just stop posting those dumb TT snow maps that say "includes sleet" in accumulations. Use some other site like Pivotal. +1 Also, we (should) all know where to find those, so maybe we don't have to make the thread longer than it needs to be? We're well ahead of MidA in the "most posts" contest as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: The real problem is the southern stream s/w is more amped which is allowing it to track a little further NW. The biggest difference is at hour 42. After that it plunges northeastward to just shy of New York City by hour 48. Most storms would track east/northeast at hour 42 but this seems to want to go head first right into the arctic dome which I find very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: The biggest difference is at hour 42. After that it plunges noreastward to just shy on New York City by hour 48. Most storms would track east/northeast at hour 42 but this seems to want to go head first right into the arctic dome which I find strange. not the first time that's happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ariof said: We're well ahead of MidA in the "most posts" contest as it stands. By about 400,000, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: rain up to NH border lol The GFS was showing something similar yesterday morning. The difference was the V3 had a snowier solution. Now both are similar. The trend this winter has been for storms to move to the west. Time will tell on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And if it hasn't been said enough. I would not trust the GFS with east coast storms originating from the southern stream if my career depended upon it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I still like the warmer mid level look with low track maybe similar to 12z NAM as I said earlier. If it goes over SE MA then throw an egg at me, but that’s my gut. If Boston gets to the 50s, Greg can have my degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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