ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That a pretty sweet bent back ML warm front over SNE from 42-45h. That would be a hellacious front endthump if we could get that type of look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 By hr 45 not much of a difference at all. Good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The NAM is really trying to tell everyone this is a 6-8 hour IB burst/snow shield... Which can dump a ton, sure... not downplayin' anything ... I'm almost inclined to lean that way as a correction because there's less in the way of cyclogenesis potential with the open wave/compression overall ... We've lost the contention/possibility suggested by previous Euro runs for a late phase ... so, having to rely on the other mechanics alone... I think the flatter fast bias is warranted - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z Faster then 06z but looks to be quite similar as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: By hr 45 not much of a difference at all. Good thump. Canada is the biggest difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 yeap, thermals remained the same.. even with slightly further north track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 heh .. .this is going to be a wonderful exercise/realization of "In like a wall" ... I bet a goodly portion of that lighter blue/QPF shield leading and on top of that 39-hrly panel is virga .... Then 20 minutes later, 1/4 mi vis 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sign me up. Good to see you post count back on the rise after a below avg couple days back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Sign me up. I will take the front end thump of heavy intense snow rates and then the backend blizzard potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: yeap, thermals remained the same.. even with slightly further north track smidge warmer at the surface and 850 for CT...but still colder than the Euro. If we see the Euro nudge south at 12z then we certainly could be trending towards a compromise of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 nice run, widespread 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is much faster than 06z faster as in starting time, or just a shorter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This run clearly does attempt to usher the warm front closer to the south/SE coasts though ... Don't filter that fact through the "I hate that so unconsciously elide noticing" lens... That said, I don't believe we are penetrating just liquid that far into CT/RI for all reasons heretofore lobbied... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We're due for a weird evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We're due for a weird evolution Why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Mr. Windcredible! said: smidge warmer at the surface and 850 for CT...but still colder than the Euro. If we see the Euro nudge south at 12z then we certainly could be trending towards a compromise of the two. it's getting close to go time from a model perspective.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: smidge warmer at the surface and 850 for CT...but still colder than the Euro. If we see the Euro nudge south at 12z then we certainly could be trending towards a compromise of the two. I was just about to get to some thing like that. At hour 54 on 6Z vs hour 48 12Z the NAM is actually further south down the coast. In fact it actually is further south at hour 54 vs 60 hours from the 6Z near Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We're due for a weird evolution ha ha... I like the gesture ... what what the f does this mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: it's getting close to go time from a model perspective.. Pretty much set, The only changes that i could see is in intensity if phasing more of the northern stream s/w sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: We're due for a weird evolution How weird are we talking? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro makes me nervous for the ice threat. Wish I could see a sounding. +7 at 850 is alot Yeah man, I agree. I can imagine any of the other models vomiting all over themselves with the mid level thermals while getting the overall evolution right, and they all suck at the surface, but it's hard to see the Euro being off that much in the ml temps this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: How weird are we talking? Depends...what else does that thing have two of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 SREFs were actually pretty cold...surprising since they are usually the ones that are jackpotting Montreal during an SNE event....our favorite obscenely amped model, the ARW, never gets the 0C 850 line past the pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: SREFs were actually pretty cold...surprising since they are usually the ones that are jackpotting Montreal during an SNE event....our favorite obscenely amped model, the ARW, never gets the 0C 850 line past the pike. There's a pretty consistent message from all the mesos leaning cold here in early stages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah the models are pretty much showing what I thought they would a week ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: There's a pretty consistent message from all the mesos leaning cold here in early stages Except the RGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Need to see what happens with that backside shortwave and if it develops another wave along the front in later runs, after hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I hate to put much faith in the mesos with so much synoptic time still left to go. The system is still out in the Rockies. Anyway, Nammy puts the fronto band right over my fanny so I hope it's right. More bang for my QPF buck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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