TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is more amped and slightly north at the surface so far this run. But I'm not sure it's going to be much worse of a solution. Heights look fine over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I wonder if it just trucks more east/northeast than due northest due to the very cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Nobody should be hugging..I guess for me, I like the sleet penetration north, just not sure of a track like the euro and gfs have into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Greg said: I wonder if it just trucks more east/northeast than due northest due to the very cold air mass. NAM will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nobody should be hugging..I guess for me, I like the sleet penetration north, just not sure of a track like the euro and gfs have into SE MA. I like ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: It's interesting that the GFS/NAM are being hugged and he RGEM/EC have been tossed. Not saying I agree or disagree, but it is definitely interesting. My gut is we end up somewhere in the middle of the EC and NCEP. Reading earlier by some that have always said to toss the GFS and now there making room in the bed for it, I would never outright toss the Euro, Just blend it with the NCEP guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 NAM is much faster than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Yeah I'm referring to mid-levels. I expect the sfc to overperform cold as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: EC is way too warm at the surface now. Tossed. Prob will be closer with the midelvels...though I'm still thinking a slight tick colder than what it shows now. NAM is prob too cold aloft. Agreed. Blend it as usual. The EC has been Steady Eddy for days though for the most part. It's EPS has been like The Rock for 4 days now. Just a fascinating near-term battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Coastal moisture transport and potential coastal storm development is beginning to take shape on the 12z NAM at hour 24, need to watch this enhance the moisture in take from the Atlantic Ocean combine with the GOM moisture. Should enhance snowfall totals over New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That 12z Nam is going to be north of that 06z run, Those thermals mids are going to go with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Definitely faster again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Coastal moisture transport and potential coastal storm development is beginning to take shape on the 12z NAM at hour 24, need to watch this enhance the moisture in take from the Atlantic Ocean combine with the GOM moisture. Should enhance snowfall totals over New England. How do the SREFs look? Any trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Board should start slowing down over the next few panels too................. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It is faster for the midwest, but I think the phasing begins as it nears the OH Valley and a coastal takes shape off of VA beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, cut said: Saw something really cool driving on I95 in Bridgeport a little while ago. There is a power station on the south side of the highway - left side as driving south - and the steam coming out was doing a spiral as it elevated through the atmosphere. First it was going right to left (NW>SE) it spiraled up and clockwise and probably 100 feet above the top of the stack it was going SE to NW. Really cool to see. Something that might be cool to visualize as we talk up this cold lower layer for this next storm. It's really cool to see visually what we talk about vertically in the atmosphere. I find it fascinating when I see clouds at different altitudes moving in different directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: How do the SREFs look? Any trends? Surface low is weaker and further south, less QPF over the region and less snowfall in the means. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I find it fascinating when I see clouds at different altitudes moving in different directions. It was way cool, like the bottom portion of a cork screw. It really is cool to see that as we discuss the surface vs. the 850 layer for this next storm - visualizing the cold north flow at ground and the warmer south easterlies up above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely faster again. Does faster include shorter duration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like winterwolf is taking a bite out of New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I don't know if this run will be 'all bad' for sne. Sure, it's a bit further north, but confluence over Canada should fight back against it in these upcoming frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, cut said: It was way cool, like the bottom portion of a cork screw. It really is cool to see that as we discuss the surface vs. the 850 layer for this next storm - visualizing the cold north flow at ground and the warmer south easterlies up above. Yes I would actually like to see the smoke do that in the middle of a storm, it would be a great way to see the atmosphere in 3D! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Looks like winterwolf is taking a bite out of New England. Winter shark doo doo doo doo doo dooo.... anybody with kids knows that one. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It is faster. If you look at hour 45 on 6Z and 36 hour on 12Z NAM its almost identical in position. The 12Z is just faster you can see it clearly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Winter shark doo doo doo doo doo dooo.... anybody with kids knows that one. Don't even start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Winter shark doo doo doo doo doo dooo.... anybody with kids knows that one. *dislike as a parent of a 4 yr old daughter* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The high up N is if anything even stronger in front of this thing comparing NAM'S 36 hour against the previous 42 .... 48...etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: It is faster. If you look at hour 45 on 6Z and 36 hour on 12Z NAM its almost identical in position. The 12Z is just faster you can see it clearly. 3hrs faster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The high up N is if anything even stronger in front of this thing comparing NAM'S 36 hour against the previous 42 .... 48...etc Yeah, I think this run is still going to crush SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now