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Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my latest map. I think the thump of snow should be pretty impressive. We should dump hard for a good 3-4 hours I would think and with rates of 1-3''/hour I don't see why we can't accumulate this much. 

Obviously the biggest question is with regards to the freezing rain. I don't think NW of 84 we get into the mid 30's but it's more of a question of do we get to 33-34 or stay more like upper 20's to around 30-31?

2123706126_snowicemap.jpg.b50f5ecf80c16e39a05f40152e900aaa.jpg

Up to .75 accretion !

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Just now, PWMan said:

Ugh. Wonder if we’ll ever see a taint-free storm this winter.

How can you guys be complaining. Most of SNE is under 10in of snow for the winter. I know Northern Maine has done a lot better but come on

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Just now, BombsAway1288 said:

How can you guys be complaining. Most of SNE is under 10in of snow for the winter. I know Northern Maine has done a lot better but come on

The big pattern change is gonna save us. 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my latest map. I think the thump of snow should be pretty impressive. We should dump hard for a good 3-4 hours I would think and with rates of 1-3''/hour I don't see why we can't accumulate this much. 

Obviously the biggest question is with regards to the freezing rain. I don't think NW of 84 we get into the mid 30's but it's more of a question of do we get to 33-34 or stay more like upper 20's to around 30-31?

2123706126_snowicemap.jpg.b50f5ecf80c16e39a05f40152e900aaa.jpg

I hope I get 4 to 8 on the SW CT coast.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my latest map. I think the thump of snow should be pretty impressive. We should dump hard for a good 3-4 hours I would think and with rates of 1-3''/hour I don't see why we can't accumulate this much. 

Obviously the biggest question is with regards to the freezing rain. I don't think NW of 84 we get into the mid 30's but it's more of a question of do we get to 33-34 or stay more like upper 20's to around 30-31?

2123706126_snowicemap.jpg.b50f5ecf80c16e39a05f40152e900aaa.jpg

Nice map. We were a little more conservative at SCW with our snow and ice maps, but that ZR question looms large in my mind. I think there's a narrow swath of the state that's going to see a high impact ice event. Certainly one of the tougher forecasts I've grappled with. 

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Cut back to about 8” up here on low end, but expected is still 17”.  We’ll see how it all shakes out.  Hope our friends to the south end up with some pleasant surprises.
I'd be happy with 10"+

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope I get 4 to 8 on the SW CT coast.

That's where my lowest confidence is, but I'm basing that off the degree of lift and the snow rates I am expecting. I would certainly say totals closer to 4'' than 8'' but there is always some type of surprise with these WAA/strong fronto bands of snow. You rip a good 2'' per hour for two hour (which I don't think is unreasonable) that's 4'' right there

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice map. We were a little more conservative at SCW with our snow and ice maps, but that ZR question looms large in my mind. I think there's a narrow swath of the state that's going to see a high impact ice event. Certainly one of the tougher forecasts I've grappled with. 

I agree...the swath will likely be more narrow (I was more concerned the other day for a much larger area). Yeah...this is a big challenge

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Setting expectations low based on overnight/morning trends.  Am I wrong thinking 6" just over the border north of Haverhill is realistic? 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's where my lowest confidence is, but I'm basing that off the degree of lift and the snow rates I am expecting. I would certainly say totals closer to 4'' than 8'' but there is always some type of surprise with these WAA/strong fronto bands of snow. You rip a good 2'' per hour for two hour (which I don't think is unreasonable) that's 4'' right there

I agree...the swath will likely be more narrow (I was more concerned the other day for a much larger area). Yeah...this is a big challenge

Thanks. I know the November 6.5 inches was a positive bust. Hopefully something similar happens again.

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20 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

How can you guys be complaining. Most of SNE is under 10in of snow for the winter. I know Northern Maine has done a lot better but come on

I don’t live in SNE.

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I picture everyone at the GTG putting a reindeer sweater on the wall and throwing darts at it.

Just clobbered up here on the EURO.  Mid-level band pivot point.  Most of the NAM/GFS banding progs like a pivot near BTV and in N/C VT.   

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I pictureeveryoneat the GTG putting a reindeer sweater on the wall and throwing darts at it.

Just clobbered up here on the EURO.  Mid-level band pivot point.  Most of the NAM/GFS banding progs like a pivot near BTV and in N/C VT.   

Congrats. It’s the winter of PF’s revenge

 

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice map. We were a little more conservative at SCW with our snow and ice maps, but that ZR question looms large in my mind. I think there's a narrow swath of the state that's going to see a high impact ice event. Certainly one of the tougher forecasts I've grappled with. 

Nice map, DIT gets his ice storm and I don't. 

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I picture everyone at the GTG putting a reindeer sweater on the wall and throwing darts at it.

Just clobbered up here on the EURO.  Mid-level band pivot point.  Most of the NAM/GFS banding progs like a pivot near BTV and in N/C VT.   

Fantastic!  

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As of 18z, the 12z American suite is doing okay on temps down here in SNE, but underestimating the magnitude of cold air around the Canadian border.

 

hrrr_T2m_neus_1.png

nam3km_T2m_neus_6.png

gfs_T2m_neus_2.png

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As of the latest trends, where would the highest potential for power issues be?  I am a lineman and we are hearing the ice potential has shifted north as well as more severe.

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5 minutes ago, Dpb1983 said:

As of the latest trends, where would the highest potential for power issues be?  I am a lineman and we are hearing the ice potential has shifted north as well as more severe.

How much for Philly?

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

How much for Philly?

They didn’t give any specific amounts, just during a briefing we were told that the potential for “infrastructure damaging” ice was increasing and shifting north.  

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