STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah no warmer luckily. Good burst of snow to begin it. I kno your sanity maybe riding on this front end thump. Are you hoping for 3-5 w that prior to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Because the biggest transition zone is in SNE, the wobbles are perceived to be much larger than they actually are....so it creates a lot of hand wringing over the model outputs. And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I kno your sanity maybe riding on this front end thump. Are you hoping for 3-5 w that prior to sleet 5-8 for me was my range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: Steady Eddy. Thats impressive consistency for days now. Some can think or say what they want, But when the king speaks, You need to lend an ear to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: I wouldn't be shocked if the sleet line tickled MHT. We all have to accept it. I've been thinking Concord, but didn't dare say it last night. I 've been out on own with my thinking which for the record has been based solely on how this winter has unfolded (and admittedly near zero meteorological knowledge.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And one that models cannot fully decipher will we are within the final stages prior to an event. Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks about the same here. I think that's a pretty nasty icing event from HFD on southwest... including most of New Haven/Fairfield Counties. Still probably a good 4-8" front side SN/PL locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 5-8 for me was my range. What about the backside thrashing (talking weather) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 5-8 for me was my range. I'm was saying to @TauntonBlizzard2013 and @butterfish55 to shoot for 5-7", some sleet/ice/rain and then possibly some light snows on backside. Hopefully the WAA thump comes in like a wall. An hour or 2 in changeover makes a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Some can think or say what they want, But when the king speaks, You need to lend an ear to it. This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Looks about the same here. I think that's a pretty nasty icing event from HFD on southwest... including most of New Haven/Fairfield Counties. Still probably a good 4-8" front side SN/PL locally. Can you maybe extend that from TOL county on SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’m still slightly amazed it’s gonna snow more than an inch? how long has it been in SNE ....55 days ...60 days lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z vs. 0z Euro... noise. Steady as she goes. The takeaway: there is no drastic northwest shift that would suggest fundamentally new ingest for the entire 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm was saying to @TauntonBlizzard2013 and @butterfish55 to shoot for 5-7", some sleet/ice/rain and then possibly some light snows on backside. Hopefully the WAA thump comes in like a wall. An hour or 2 in changeover makes a world of difference. so basically, an 80s style SEMA winter event. That's fine, we're due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. The consistency is what sticks out, And from a long lead into this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep, the models will not be perfect...I've been hedging just a bit on the colder side of guidance because of the synoptics...I'll find out soon enough if that was the correct thinking. I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m still slightly amazed it’s gonna snow more than an inch? how long has it been in SNE ....55 days ...60 days lmao 65 days here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are looking fine. What’s the worry? I'm just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. You have a dense cold airmass. Even if we had snow, it won’t effect things. That high is good enough to squeeze shit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? What causes that? Is that downsloping off the Whites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: You have a sense cold airmass. Even if we had snow, it won’t effect things. That high is good enough to squeeze shit south. So you don't think having a snowpack would impact the surface track path at all or just minimally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: This snow map is the same one it's shown for like 4 days now. Euro does love the mid-level fronto up this way though. I like the fact that the QPF/snow totals ...even where it's unperturbed by warm bullshit aloft ... is now half of what it was three days ago. That cutting back on QPF was mentioned by ... eh hm, some of us, as concomitant with open waves in a progressive/compressed medium. That said, perhaps obfuscated by the fact that this system could and probably will ... still be anomalously rich, regardless. So a couple of things happening there... Yes correction; yes anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Coastal front subby zone from here to interior SW ME? Exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm not sure if it's fortunate that I am stuck in Ayer for this event or not...possibly see a foot in this area around Rt2, I think around 6-8" with some PL IMBY, and 10-12 here around the Rt2/495 area, with perhaps a brief change, then back to snow as it departs..your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The ECWMF with ~0.8" of freezing rain in Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Still 3 - 4 and some ice. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: The ECWMF with ~0.8" of freezing rain in Hartford. That would be bad with the wind coming on the back side of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'd side with your logic. There are a couple mitigating factors in my mind. There is the background "winter" that we have been having in SNE that's been warmer then normal and we also don't have any snowpack to speak of in SNE which would have helped facilitate the SLP sliding along that denseer cold. First of all, it hasn't been that warm. Secondly, the fact that we have had next to no snow, and nothing for over two months, is a nod in favor of more snow from here on out...all else being equal. Especially considering ENSO.. Finally, snowpack is nice, but a strong, ideally placed nascent +pp of arctic origin should also provide the requisite resistance to preclude inland tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: Still 3 - 4 and some ice. meh. this isn't going to be one to remember unless the big icing comes to fruition and we got a lot of trees/powerlines down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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