wxeyeNH Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Gfs colder at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 back to a wet 1.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Confluence up north is flexing its muscles so far at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z tomorrow we should know for sure.. but these are some great runs so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Scooter has to go 48 hours with out wiping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yeah you could see heights lower from 12z over the lakes. Nice runs so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Thanks, any idea yet on an end time? gfs has it ending with the heavier stuff around 1 - 2pm Sunday, other models a bit faster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Updating my numbers at 11. This almost always backfires lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Confluence up north is flexing its muscles so far at 00z. Should help QPF w fronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dnt doubt Harv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'd feel a lot better if the 18z ECMWF/EPS weren't so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: I'd feel a lot better if the 18z ECMWF/EPS weren't so warm. You’d think they would come in cooler too at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Updating my numbers at 11. This almost always backfires lol Guessing your upping for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 canadian? looks a little further NW than GFS but pretty similar..anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: I'd feel a lot better if the 18z ECMWF/EPS weren't so warm. I couldn't care less..they will correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 More and more models appear to be hinting at a minor turn as the storm enters the gulf of maine, the turn happens pretty decently offshore so it hasn't impacted precipitate totals yet but I think it's definitely something to look out for in future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Updating my numbers at 11. This almost always backfires lol Euro will come in warmer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Goal posts are narrowing. This is looking good for most of NE save the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Confluence up north is flexing its muscles so far at 00z. Looks to me like the Nam backed off on the northern stream a little bit if anything ... I suspect subtleties about the trough that came off the Pacific ...but who knows. Narrow tolerances is in every direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Harvey was pretty steadfast about a colder solution last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: More and more models appear to be hinting at a minor turn as the storm enters the gulf of maine, the turn happens pretty decently offshore so it hasn't impacted precipitate totals yet but I think it's definitely something to look out for in future model runs. Colder and less snow. Plus it's in and out of here in a flash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Greg said: Harvey was really standing by a colder solution last night. Have you stepped back from the edge of the Tobin now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dnt doubt Harv Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 00Z NAM Wow!! FYI, regarding 00Z NAM, recently came across an interesting study that analyzed NAM via Fourier time domain analysis in 156 global data series (essentially discrete events). Where Deutsche ICON and NAM coaligned at h200 within 48 hr instantations, given Z-Scores >0.9 and open channel Froude values <1.0, NAM outperformed power series Z by 0.95, with confidence levels of 0.98!. (Fg) was assumed constant throughout the column in all instances, as was the qAv product. This found NAM thermal and slp placement far superior by 2 SD vs GFS and ECMWF determanistic Kronecker products. Only 0.5 SD probabalistic with Sigma < 2 however the raw score null set was overly constrained so ... Bottom line, setup here is perfect to push all your chips to the centre of the table on NAM. Seems crazy, but true. - SPQR Sounds like some great analysis. The only thing I understood was the poker analogy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Have you stepped back from the edge of the Tobin now? Stepping away ever so slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The surface probably was the least questionable. But these little subtle shifts, elongations, what have you...mean a huge difference in the mid levels. Having a good high anchored north helps get that warmer air to hit a brick wall below 850. But it’s above that where it matters. The more sheared srn vort and the PV pressing south is enough to keep the low from going into SNE on the NAM and gfs anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The weenies on the bus go round and round, round and round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Which one do you believe?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The surface probably was the least questionable. But these little subtle shifts, elongations, what have you...mean a huge difference in the mid levels. Having a good high anchored north helps get that warmer air to hit a brick wall below 850. But it’s above that where it matters. The more sheared srn vort and the PV pressing south is enough to keep the low from going into SNE on the NAM and gfs anyways. The mid level change at h85 especially was remarkable on both the NAM and GFS. That's the issue really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Harvey says sleet gets to the Pike and retreats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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