Cmass495

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About Cmass495

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KFIT
  • Location:
    Lancaster, MA

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  1. haha, shoutout FOR THE SNOW LOVERS OUT THERE WHO HAVE BEEN TRACKING THIS SNOW STORM SINCE MODELS BEGAN SHOWING IT AS EARLY AS LAST WEDNESDAY (!) THIS HAS BEEN A REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SYSTEM, DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU WANT TO EXAMINE.
  2. LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HREF, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS THE H5 LOW CROSSES FROM NJ INTO SNE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE H5 LOW COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE SLOWER BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, BUT VERY LITTLE TO SUGGEST BUMPING UP THE CURRENT FORECAST TOO MUCH. ALSO, THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND ITS TRACK ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH COAST WOULD SUGGEST THAT AREAS TOWARDS AND ALONG THE MA/RI SOUTH COAST, INCLUDING THE CAPE & ISLANDS WILL MIX LIKELY WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AFTER AN INITIAL THUMP, WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON SNOW TOTALS. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT AREAS FURTHER N&W WILL ALSO COME INTO PLAY FOR HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS WHY WE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. A POTENTIAL RED FLAG AGAINST SOME OF THE EYE-POPPING TOTALS SHOWN BY DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEPENING OF THE SECONDARY LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE LOW IN THE HIGH 990S OR LOW 1000S, WHICH INDICATES A LACK OF DEEPENING OR CYCLOGENESIS REQUIRED FOR THE SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE STAYING POWER AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TOTALS MUCH HIGHER THAN A FOOT AT THIS TIME. ALSO, THIS REDUCES THE CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO THE 1035 MB HIGH TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL, GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE DEAMPLIFYING H5 SHORTWAVE, WE ARE INCLINED TO GO WITH A WIDESPREAD 8-12 INCHES FOR OUR CWA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE S COAST. COULD SOME LOCATIONS GET MORE THAN A FOOT? ABSOLUTELY, BUT IT IS HARD PRESSED TO SEE AMOUNTS OVER 15 INCHES AT THIS TIME. THE H5 UPPER LOW THAT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE NOR'EASTER HAS SHOWN UP THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A CURSORY GLANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE GFS AND NAM HAVE INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. A CLOSER LOOK SUGGESTS THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE INITIALIZED THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES A LITTLE TOO MUCH. THESE ARE VERY FINE MARGINS AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES, BUT COULD HAVE AN OUTSIZED ROLE DOWNSTREAM AND STORM IMPACTS ON OUR AREA. OVERALL, WE ARE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT OF A SIGNIFICANT, BUT NOT BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE MA/RI SOUTH COAST AND THE CAPE AND ISLANDS, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER THE INITIAL THUMP OF SNOW.
  3. Just hit 2 feet with a 2" hour. Still ripping in central mass.
  4. 9.2" Clinton, MA 3 flashes of lightning earlier.