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nj2va

January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

I remember getting burned out tracking storms in March 2014. I was literally looking forward to the end of it all. It was the ultimate snow event tracking winter second to none. I want to feel that way again but not until April 10th. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs agrees

jHbESJ3.png

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I remember getting burned out tracking storms in March 2014. I was literally looking forward to the end of it all. It was the ultimate snow event tracking winter second to none. I want to feel that way again but not until April 10th. 

That was a super fun winter overall. Good times.  I think it also featured the lame Tenman "cold" thread turned epic poetry thread.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

Storm chances every 3 days. Gotta like that. And all coming at us from the southwest. 

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I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

Maybe we'll actually need the mjo to cycle through warm phases to give us storms instead of an uber block 8-1-2 that does nothing except suppress to the gulf coast. 

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13 minutes ago, frd said:

I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

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9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

What's a good free site to see the GEFS down my way in the Carolina's?

I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.

48kdjZF.png

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.

48kdjZF.png

It does look good! Thanks for posting!

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

Lol That's how I feel whenever I hear a low-snow analog year thrown around like it was epic...blech

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

Depends on what you mean by "not that cold"...I remember there being some pretty bitter cold that winter (I have a distinct memory of our water cooler jugs getting completely frozen out on the porch once, lol)

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

Exactly,  I ran the winter climate numbers for 1985 for my area. A sudden crash of temps and then back up. 

I think JB needs the cold to hit his aggressive minus departure forecast. 

I simply brought it up because I think this Feb might have the cold, ( and more than  a week of it ),  plus storms as well, that were lacking in 1985.

Sort of like the best of both worlds.   I have to do a lot more research as to the whys of that year's lack of snowfall. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Depends on what you mean by "not that cold"...I remember there being some pretty bitter cold that winter (I have a distinct memory of our water cooler jugs getting completely frozen out on the porch once, lol)

I think the 85 and 94 vortices had -40 to -45C 850s when they entered the US so places well into the Oh Valley and Tn Valley went below 0 both times and by decent margins 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

How does the upcoming modeled pattern compare to 82? I cant find any upper level maps from that winter. We had some incredible arctic dumps that year.

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I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.
48kdjZF.png&key=0ff2b1398b22f18e178658e34858a6ed85dc2c62d9d581e985bd8873838522e2
Remind me to never move down there
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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

I'm not sure either what is so appealing to some about 85. There were several bad bust that year. Early storm in February was supposed to be 6-10 plus ended up 1-2. Another predicted 3-6 in January turned into 1 inch. There were a couple front end thumps that were ok but they went to mix and rain. It basically was a winter that earned a reputation off of one historical arctic blast. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

How does the upcoming modeled pattern compare to 82? I cant find any upper level maps from that winter. We had some incredible arctic dumps that year.

Not sure but I would think 82 was more Pacific driven. Probably a pretty significant -epo but that's a guess as I dont remember a lot of blocking that year but I could be wrong. The cold was center in mid January. Most notably the afc championship game in Cincinnati on jan. 10th. The following Sunday the 17th was brutal cold as well. In between the 2 sundays was the decent snow event responsible for the Florida air disaster. 

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Fun times ahead, that is for sure, just be a little patient. The Day 6 event has a shot, but it is an outside shot. Would need initial front and low associated with it to clear as far E as possible. Need good spacing/timing as always. 

Regardless, if that fails it is fine, many possibilities after. Honestly, even though Miller Bs tend to be long shots in our region I have always personally favored them over As only because of their explosive characteristics. 

Imagine a December 30 2000 event that dug deeper & cut off farther W....It isn’t impossible. Especially if the upcoming pattern is progged correctly. 

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28 minutes ago, frd said:

Exactly,  I ran the winter climate numbers for 1985 for my area. A sudden crash of temps and then back up. 

I think JB needs the cold to hit his aggressive minus departure forecast. 

I simply brought it up because I think this Feb might have the cold, ( and more than  a week of it ),  plus storms as well, that were lacking in 1985.

Sort of like the best of both worlds.   I have to do a lot more research as to the whys of that year's lack of snowfall. 

 

 

54 minutes ago, frd said:

I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

 

 

@frd -- sometimes I see people misusing analogs. A significant commonality on one front does not necessarily intimate that the analog's every attribute should be projected upon the current year. Concordantly, this year will continue to be different from 1985 in terms of sensible weather. The reason I broached 1985 was entirely due to the stratospheric similarities, timing, of the tropospheric response (which has verified well). However, 1985, as a lower AAM year, with low-orbit GWO circuits and Nina-esque background, had a feeble STJ, and thus, moisture was generally lacking. Snowstorms originally almost entirely from the northern stream. This year, we will have a heightened AAM state, w/ nino-esque GWO cycling, and split flow structure w/ much more opportunity for moisture laden storms. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

So you finally conceded the war is a bigger player than expected? Going to make or break this stretch heading from late month thru 3rd week Feb imo.

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18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

@frd -- sometimes I see people misusing analogs. A significant commonality on one front does not necessarily intimate that the analog's every attribute should be projected upon the current year. Concordantly, this year will continue to be different from 1985 in terms of sensible weather. The reason I broached 1985 was entirely due to the stratospheric similarities, timing, of the tropospheric response (which has verified well). However, 1985, as a lower AAM year, with low-orbit GWO circuits and Nina-esque background, had a feeble STJ, and thus, moisture was generally lacking. Snowstorms originally almost entirely from the northern stream. This year, we will have a heightened AAM state, w/ nino-esque GWO cycling, and split flow structure w/ much more opportunity for moisture laden storms. 

I don’t fear a repeat...that year just bugs me like nails on a chalkboard. Lol

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

It does look good! Thanks for posting!

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

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1 minute ago, zac1245 said:

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

The blizzard of February 1973 brought some areas of South Carolina two feet of snow and a large area of one foot plus fwiw. 

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4 minutes ago, zac1245 said:

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

Lol yeah. I'm in the far nw corner of SC thankfully. I keep my expectations in check and never, ever expect snow to pan out until I see it falling. We fail 90% of storms. I'm sitting on 6 inches for the winter and would love to just break double digits. Even if I have to do it one inch at a time. Lol

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