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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

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Just saying, every time a thread has gone off the rails and a new thread has been created, things have looked up. May be superstition, but I gotta good feeling about this thread.

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Regarding the next two storms and how they relate to the pattern we ultimately want....HM has a nice recent thread.

 

 

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I will say looking at the ops past 24hrs I know they are showing some amped up solutions.

Makes sense with the WAR, MJO, etc. However if you put any stock in seasonal trends (I put some) there appears to be a slightly favored disposition for models this season to under play confluence to the north in the long range. We’ve been cycling through these high pressures to our north pretty consistently this winter. So I wouldn’t rule out front end scenarios delivering a couple inches here and there until the WAR cycles up to the NAO domain and turns us negative (hopefully).

Long and short of it is I wouldnt rule out any day 5+ ops showing all warm side precip which could changing slightly to our favor given a seasonal trend to over amplify these systems and models not truly recognize the strength of these highs till medium leads. 2 cents 

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

I will say looking at the ops past 24hrs I know they are showing some amped up solutions.

Makes sense with the WAR, MJO, etc. However if you put any stock in seasonal trends (I put some) there appears to be a slightly favored disposition for models this season to under play confluence to the north in the long range. We’ve been cycling through these high pressures to our north pretty consistently this winter. So I wouldn’t rule out front end scenarios delivering a couple inches here and there until the WAR cycles up to the NAO domain and turns us negative (hopefully).

Long and short of it is I wouldnt rule out any day 5+ ops showing all warm side precip which could changing slightly to our favor given a seasonal trend to over amplify these systems and models not truly recognize the strength of these highs till medium leads. 2 cents 

I would say the trend is to have the snow bullseye too far south! makes southern PA in jeopardy unless we see a big change soon

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5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I would say the trend is to have the snow bullseye too far south! makes southern PA in jeopardy unless we see a big change soon

Right, I’m not expecting any miracle solutions. PA north is definitely favored and borderline with 24th storm. But it would not surprise me if by this weekend we saw that 24th trending a little better based off the seasonality of recent forecasts.

Could just be wishful thinking on my part too...

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

Right, I’m not expecting any miracle solutions. PA north is definitely favored and borderline with 24th storm. But it would surprise me if by this weekend we saw that 24th trending a little better based off the seasonality of recent forecasts.

Could just be wishful thinking on my part too...

Yes! Sorry - not trying to be a pessimist - if something different is going to happen, I would not expect big changes unless we see Thursday's system do something crazy! 

Hoping the extended gets better!

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yes! Sorry - not trying to be a pessimist - if something different is going to happen, I would not expect big changes unless we see Thursday's system do something crazy! 

Hoping the extended gets better!

the 3 towns that irk me the most when they get more snow is Raleigh, Richmond and Columbus

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To keep things in perspective:  If you look at the top DC winter storms:  Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March.  I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).  

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 3 towns that irk me the most when they get more snow is Raleigh, Richmond and Columbus

For me it's Norfolk. And also Philly or NYC when they get way more than us.

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19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

To keep things in perspective:  If you look at the top DC winter storms:  Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March.  I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).  

Agreed!

A climo reminder for the area (Baltimore)

The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March.

Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20% for the weekend. That's what I tell myself every time there is a storm to track. We would expect on average that one of these storms coming our way over the next week or two will deliver some snow again.

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In the Baltimore area, I should be expecting the next two substantial storms(Sunday and next week) to be mostly rain, right? Just want to know if I should be trusting the models or if there's more to the story. 

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8 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said:

Agreed!

A climo reminder for the area (Baltimore)

The probability of precipitation falling as snow on Dec 14 is 4%, and on March 14 it's 4%. So if you were hoping for snow in Dec you should be hoping for snow in March.

Right now we are basically at peak climo. In Baltimore at least, when there is precipitation around Jan 20, 13% of the time it's snow. We are in a slightly colder period right now, so maybe we've bumped our chances of snow to 20% for the weekend. That's what I tell myself every time there is a storm to track. We would expect on average that one of these storms coming our way over the next week or two will deliver some snow again.

Where did you get those numbers from?

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35 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For me it's Norfolk. And also Philly or NYC when they get way more than us.

Norfolk’s a good one because it snows like once every 20 years there, it’s ten miles from the outer banks (Corolla Light). The pattern that brings them snow is similar to a pattern that would bring Columbia, SC snow

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2 minutes ago, Inthepines said:

Norfolk’s a good one because it snows once every 20 years there.

They got 15.5 last year. More than I saw in the last 2 years combined up till this season. What a joke.

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47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

To keep things in perspective:  If you look at the top DC winter storms:  Eight from late January into mid February (1899, 1922, 1966, 1999 (ice), 2000, 2010, 2011, 2016), Three have fallen on President's Day (1979, 1983, 2003); and one in March.  I don't give up until March 14 (Superstorm'93).  

March 13th, 1993, in DC area anyway.  My daughter's second birthday.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

ICON looks to give a nice front end thump to the M/D line folks.  

Baby steps. But in the meantime everybody panic!

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17 minutes ago, Inthepines said:

Norfolk’s a good one because it snows like once every 20 years there, it’s ten miles from the outer banks (Corolla Light). The pattern that brings them snow is similar to a pattern that would bring Columbia, SC snow

Norfolk has had a lot of good storms in the last 15 years. Probably even more than Richmond, at least until Jan 2016 and Dec 2018. They often get nailed by the beach storms, and they’ve done very well recently for a place with a single digit snowfall average.

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Baby steps. But in the meantime everybody panic!

This would be extremely frustrating to me if it played out like this.  

2 " for me. 12"  15 miles north of me 

I rather have the rain/snow line in buffalo lol.

 

icon_asnow_us_41.png

icon_asnow_neus_41.png

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Just now, Chris78 said:

This would be extremely frustrating to me if it played out like this.  

2 " for me. 12"  15 miles north of me 

I rather have the rain/snow line in buffalo lol.

 

icon_asnow_us_41.png

icon_asnow_neus_41.png

Just one moderate south shift away from being another 12z UKMET.

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Where's the northern stream running interference like it has every opportunity so far lol

We need a nicely timed vort to slide down on Saturday to suppress heights.

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Where's the northern stream running interference like it has every opportunity so far lol

We need a nicely timed vort to slide down on Saturday to suppress heights.

Right? If we could get one of those I’ll timedsuppressive lobes wecouod bring the bullseye down toward the promised land (my backyard lol)

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