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January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast


Bob Chill
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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Radar really blooming now...

One more tidbit from your earlier question... the way you and me get 6-8 or even more is when the trailing upper level energy moves through. The exact location and jackpots from that piece are really hard to nail down until it's happening. That part could feature high ratio/fluffy dendrites. If things line up there will be embedded bands within the shield. Get under 1 or 2 of those bands and you can get a nice thump of quick accumulations. Just pray or sacrifice chickens and hope it happens over your yard. 

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1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said:

33 and nothing happening in Odenton. Looks like the storm is having difficulty making it through the mountains 

Models have all shown that accumulating snow wont happen until sometime after 5pm. Good stuff not till much later. Give it some time before worrying about mountains and such

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3:00 pm AFD from LWX:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE OVER
ARKANSAS. ALOFT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR KANSAS CITY.
THROUGH SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE TRANSFERING ITS ENERGY TO A NEW SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES.
THIS LOW WILL THEN STRENGTHEN BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA SUNDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT THE UPPER LOW PROGRESS EASTWARD, AND IT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT TOO HEADS OUT TO SEA. 

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCHED THE LOW TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH,
AND INCREASED ITS DEVELOPMENT A BIT. THIS HAS HAD A TWO-FOLD
EFFECT. THE FIRST IS THAT OVERALL, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVIER, WITH WIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL EXPECTED.
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGHEST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST
TOWARDS DC METRO. FURTHER NORTH, DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND CONFLUENCE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, THE INCREASED LOW DEVELOPMENT AND CLOSER POSITION
INCREASES THE RISK OF MIXING WITH SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN,
RESULTING IN LOWERED TOTALS COMPARED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST. 

FOR TONIGHT, WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO THAT AREAS WHERE IT IS NOT SNOWING
WILL SEE SNOW SOON. THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT, BUT
SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS WE APPROACH MORNING. HEAVIEST
BANDED SNOW LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEW SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME IN WHICH MIXING WILL START
BECOMING AN ISSUE, FIRST IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA DOWN TOWARDS AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE/STAUNTON, THEN DURING THE
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN MD AND PERHAPS INTO THE FREDERICKSBURG
AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, SNOW
WILL LIGHTEN UP AND COLDER AIR WRAPPING BACK IN SHOULD DIMINISH
THE MIXING. HOWEVER, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW LOOKS MORE AND
MORE LIKELY TO KEEP SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. 

TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING MOST OF
THE STORM, THOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS ARE A RISK IN SOUTHERN 
MD. LOWS WON'T DROP MUCH TONIGHT, WITH 20S COMMON, AND TEMPS 
RISING TO AROUND FREEZING ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY AFTER
SNOW STARTS TO DIMINISH A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON.

 

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