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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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What a dud! People should be banned from posting that CMC model, it’s the new DGEX

Lol Sure I don’t believe an 1.5 or even a 1 of ice anywhere!!! but it has been consistent on being a ice storm in CAD areas. Let’s see what happens then we toss or if it’s close to right “do we toss the other short range models”? Hope you get in on a mix and I think you will.


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1 hour ago, BIG FROSTY said:


Lol emoji23.png Sure I don’t believe an 1.5 or even a 1 of ice anywhere!!! but it has been consistent on being a ice storm in CAD areas. Let’s see what happens then we toss or if it’s close to right “do we toss the other short range models”? Hope you get in on a mix and I think you will.


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Wis we were just getting snow. Don’t care for ice. 

J/B is all pumped up about winter coming.  

Hope he’s right again 

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55 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

 

Totally agree. Tracking ice is like some funny analogy that I can’t think of.

My sister lives in Fredericksburg VA and can’t wait for all the hourly pictures she’ll gloat with. Think that area jackpots. 

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29/18. Oh to have some moisture right now. Radar looks great out to our west, clouds should start rolling in soon. One more big cycle of short range models at 0z and 6z, then its nowcast.

Practice up boys. Cause holy cow at the LR storms coming starting 20th. The ones that follow up look like its snow or nada. 20th looks like ice , rain, ,backside snows. Possibly cold rain. But it ushers in a major pattern change at 5h that truly has holy grail look to it , right in the dead of winter. Great times are right around the corner if you like vodka cold and winter precip.

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

29/18. Oh to have some moisture right now. Radar looks great out to our west, clouds should start rolling in soon. One more big cycle of short range models at 0z and 6z, then its nowcast.

Practice up boys. Cause holy cow at the LR storms coming starting 20th. The ones that follow up look like its snow or nada. 20th looks like ice , rain, ,backside snows. Possibly cold rain. But it ushers in a major pattern change at 5h that truly has holy grail look to it , right in the dead of winter. Great times are right around the corner if you like vodka cold and winter precip.

I’d be shocked if we don’t score at least once if not more between the 20th and the first couple weeks of February if we can just get the storm track to suppress a bit. Still way too much tracking right through the interior Southeast instead of down along the gulf in the long range. 

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011119.JPG.d05f3809d84a71448939bee729ee550b.JPG

The red line^ represents a rough idea of what RAH thought would be Warning criteria as of 3pm today.

If that holds, we'll likely see Warnings issued tomorrow morning for Forysth, Davidson, Guilford, Alamance, and Orange. WWA's would likely be Randolph, Chatham, and Durham.

If this trends colder, Wake might get a WWA. But based on their current point and click forecasts in the N/NW part of the county, this would be unlikely.

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Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. 

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6 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said:

Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. 

If thats the case the 18z gfs has freezing rain further east in NC than the NAM. Gfs is lighter qpf, but also nam is matching better in TN with radar. Snow knocking on door Nashville.

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15 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said:

Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. 

IMO that’s a good thing. Unless the NAM version meant snow. Which I don’t think is possible here in Triad, given the setup. So if it’s ice or rain, give me the rain plz. 

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10 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

IMO that’s a good thing. Unless the NAM version meant snow. Which I don’t think is possible here in Triad, given the setup. So if it’s ice or rain, give me the rain plz. 

Afraid not on the rain.  Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad.  The question is how much sleet vs. zr.

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That RAH discussion about NAM/GFS temp comparisons was for tonight. They haven't updated for the 'short term' (which includes the time period for this storm) since 3pm-ish.

I mean, it could still mean they are leaning towards the GFS temps for this storm. But I don't think we can assume that yet until the short term discussion is updated later.

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Just now, CentralNC said:

Afraid not on the rain.  Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad.  The question is how much sleet vs. zr.

Yes, it's pretty much a lock in the Triad. You will get frozen/freezing precip. I would not rule out sleet as the predominant P-type at least during the first half of the storm. As is the case so many times it comes down to North of 85 for anything wintry. There could be exceptions with this one but that's usually the rule of thumb.

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8 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Afraid not on the rain.  Pretty classic ice set up here in the Triad.  The question is how much sleet vs. zr.

#prayforsleet 

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on?  The uncertainty is large with this one!

Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some.

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Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some.

Sitting at 34.9/27.1
High clouds in place...


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It’s currently 28/15 south of Greensboro in Northern Randolph County. High clouds just beginning to move in. 

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16 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

#prayforsleet 

 

11 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on?  The uncertainty is large with this one!

 

7 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Can't remember a winter storm that was this close and still not know how it was going to play out. Usually we have a pretty good idea of how thing were going by now. This one will come down to surface temps and wet-bulbs tomorrow at the onset. very tricky for some.

 

5 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:


Sitting at 34.9/27.1
High clouds in place...


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If I was in the Triad or foothills, I'd #prayforsleet too.

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