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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

I don’t buy it at all! I mean the CMC and the NAM, are really the only 2 models giving me any frozen, and well, it’s the NAM and CMC

True, but that was a different look from the 3K NAM (maybe it has better info). Still a little bit of time for the other models to catch on (if there's anything to catch on to). So in short, we still have hope.. 

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WSW is up! 

NCZ003-112300-
Surry-
Including the city of Dobson
600 AM EST Fri Jan 11 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Clear in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of light snow in the morning, then a
chance of snow or a slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Little or no snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the lower
30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation
30 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Sleet or snow likely in the evening, then sleet
and freezing rain after midnight. Light snow accumulation. Near
steady temperature around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of
precipitation near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Sleet or snow or rain likely in the morning,
then a chance of rain or snow or sleet in the afternoon.
Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near
steady temperature in the lower 30s. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. 

 

Sitting at 20/15 this morning. Where's the moisture when you need it? 

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For RDU / eastern folks, some of the models are trying to build in precip a little faster. The 3K NAM shows this and also the WKF_ARWS2; which I'm not sure how good it is, but...

This is at hr 48 and precip is building fast (faster even then the NAM):

 

aaaa.jpg

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You mean 534 line. 540 is central/south VA

Sorry. My bad. Should have said Middle Peninsula. Northern Neck is the next piece jutting out into the Chesapeake. Also cuts right across the Eastern Shore of the DelMarVa.


.

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Been interesting watching the evolution of the high pressure over the lakes relative to the Low location. Still a lot to be worked out this late in the game for many. 

00677ec7-28f7-4b8b-a420-1b061db882eb.gif

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Some of the numbers the GGEM is spitting out for the Triad area are downright scary. .6-.8” of ice. I mean even half of that would be very bad.

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Here's my (clear-cut)grid forecast:

Saturday
Cloudy, with a high near 39. Light northeast wind.
Saturday Night
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then rain or freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday
Rain before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. High near 37. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Here's my (clear-cut)grid forecast:

Saturday
Cloudy, with a high near 39. Light northeast wind.
Saturday Night
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then rain or freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday
Rain before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. High near 37. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

That generated crap is just plain STUPID! IMO 

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Hey Guys.  This is my 1st post.  I live in NW Ga, so in systems like this all i can do is watch and admire.  Cad events seldom come this far East.  The Blue Ridge rises up just the next county to our East with heights of 3500 and above so they block the air .   I will have to just hope for the event about the 23rd to have -nao and ridge  to get the cold set up ....

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Hard to get excited about wintry precip, with a forecast high of 50! Expect just another cold rain here! :(

As long as the wet bulb is around freezing it can snow in the 50s, just won't stick (happened in Vegas a few weeks ago).

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Just now, Looking to the skies said:

Hey Guys.  This is my 1st post.  I live in NW Ga, so in systems like this all i can do is watch and admire.  Cad events seldom come this far East.  The Blue Ridge rises up just the next county to our East with heights of 3500 and above so they block the air .   I will have to just hope for the event about the 23rd to have -nao and ridge  to get the cold set up ....

Welcome new poster, and yeah, I am hoping against hope for the 23rd as well. Good luck with this one!

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