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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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6 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Thanks for the reply! (And wait a sec, are you with NWS Blacksburg?!) I may have to chase to Roanoke or Vinton for this one!

Also, the EURO is in and it's bone dry. Cuts a lot of totals almost in half. 3k NAM is dry, 0z GFS was dry, now 0z EURO is dry. Lot of local news outlets with some big 5-10" and 6-12" numbers. I'm afraid they may be in trouble. Hate these "dropping out of the Rockies" systems. Rather have the bowling ball coming out of Baja and into the Gulf.

Yes I am. The 'Burg is great.

Roanoke and north is a pretty good bet at all snow. The 00Z GEFS spaghetti p-type plot showed mostly snow for ROA, with a very small chance (less the 25%) of mixing through the early morning hours on Sunday. Models have indeed trended a bit drier, so I think anything over 6" is unlikely at this point. The main show of precip will be from the WAA overunning.. once the transfer occurs, we'll likely begin to shutoff.  

 

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What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro

 

Saturday
A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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9 minutes ago, sarcean said:

What a mess of a forecast here in Greensboro

 

Saturday
A slight chance of snow after 1pm, mixing with sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet between midnight and 3am, then freezing rain after 3am. Low around 30. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. High near 34. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain before 10pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then a slight chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Lol that seems ridiculously confusing.

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Brining like crazy here in Forsyth County (winston).  I think either way this goes there will be some very slick roads on Sunday.  Grounds temps will be very favorable.

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31 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

I don't know how significant or any significance  --  as far as the CAD  but the low to my East this morning in NE Alabama was 19.   The cold might be more entrenched than 1st thought?

The bottom dropped out here too, low of 22....even colder than surrounding areas. This is  As much as 10 degrees colder than some guidance...but these calm clear nights with low dewpoints it's not unusual to see. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The bottom dropped out here too, low of 22....even colder than surrounding areas. This is  As much as 10 degrees colder than some guidance...but these calm clear nights with low dewpoints it's not unusual to see. 

 

I bottomed at 26 IMBY, 3 degrees colder than what was forecasted

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12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point.  Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates.  

image.thumb.png.21f005801e487738f5f93176dc55e5e5.png

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6 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point.  Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates.  

image.thumb.png.21f005801e487738f5f93176dc55e5e5.png

GSP says that warning criteria could be reached, too much uncertainty at this point

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Some of the numbers the GGEM is spitting out for the Triad area are downright scary. .6-.8” of ice. I mean even half of that would be very bad.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

GSP says that warning criteria could be reached, too much uncertainty at this point

The 12z RGEM is absolutely ridiculous on the ice. Major Ice Storm in the CAD favored areas.

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8 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

12z NAM Total Accumulated Freezing rain. I'm not aware of any WFO's or media outlooks mentioning the possibility of an Ice Storm. Just Social Media chatter at this point.  Let's see what the other 12z data shows. I know the NAM does well with temp profiles, but I'm not sure about precip rates.  

image.thumb.png.21f005801e487738f5f93176dc55e5e5.png

I think much of these is going to go to getting a very dry column moistened up so yes likely overdone on actual ice accums

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s pretty deep into SC. Seems overdone. CMC and NAM seem on an island of their own!?

Just the opposite actually. I think temps get to below freezing over a pretty large area assuming temps don't get too warm saturday. But  Here is the 3km nam's 925mb to 975mb temps... This is a pretty classic temp profile and look for ice for north ga/upstate...and even this might be a little underdone since wetbulbs at these levels start off around -3c.  

 

nam3km.png

nam3km2.png

 

nam3km4.png

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7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

I think much of these is going to go to getting a very dry column moistened up so yes likely overdone on actual ice accums

The models take virga into account

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10 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Just the opposite actually. I think temps get to below freezing over a pretty large area assuming temps don't get too warm saturday. But  Here is the 3km nam's 925mb to 975mb temps... This is a pretty classic temp profile and look for ice for north ga/upstate...and even this might be a little underdone since wetbulbs at these levels start off around -3c.  

 

nam3km.png

nam3km2.png

 

nam3km4.png

Is this a sleet sounding or just ZR?

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Lol that seems ridiculously confusing.

I’m used to RAH’s forecasts for my area.

”Chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow at some point today.  Expect accumulations anywhere between zero and 8” of frozen precipitation.  Highs anticipated to reach anywhere between 28 and 50.”

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I dont really know what to think at this point.  This set up reminds me of one a while back where we ended up getting a ton of ice (the infamous "I hope you get an inch of ice" storm) when the forecast was a cold rain right up till the event started.  After that over the years, a lot of times the set up seems to be there but for one reason or another we end up 33 or 34 and rain. 

The higher resolution models are showing a pretty big CAD, and the high seems to be in a pretty good location.  It won't take much for NE GA an the upstate to get some ice, however, without much support from the other models I am just not sold on it at this point

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Is this a sleet sounding or just ZR?

Overnight, just freezing rain. Depth/degree of subfreezing air doesn't look deep enough for sleet and there is a huge warm nose.

46 minutes ago, NEGa said:

I dont really know what to think at this point.  This set up reminds me of one a while back where we ended up getting a ton of ice (the infamous "I hope you get an inch of ice" storm) when the forecast was a cold rain right up till the event started.  After that over the years, a lot of times the set up seems to be there but for one reason or another we end up 33 or 34 and rain. 

The higher resolution models are showing a pretty big CAD, and the high seems to be in a pretty good location.  It won't take much for NE GA an the upstate to get some ice, however, without much support from the other models I am just not sold on it at this point

I don't think you will have to worry on this one. Looks like a lock for ice in your neck of the woods. I'm sold on everywhere north of 85 getting below freezing...in fact based on the nam/rgem, you should get into the upper 20s at your elevation. Also the nam has gainesville already at freezing by 18z. 

South of 85 though is a tougher call. You are right that this has all the usual signs and bells for a 30/31 degree ice event for north ga  but timing of the precip couldn't be worse. If it comes in a little earlier there'd be little doubt but thanks to late start time of the main precip, will  have to see how warm these areas get tomorrow and what the  dewpoints do. I can say one thing with confidence, toss the gfs. Total trash....despite showing dewpoint depressions of around 15 degrees, it shows no temp response. That's absurd based on the fact we have a pretty solid/thick and cold boundary layer. Ice or no ice, it will bust by at minimum of 5 degrees in a lot of places. 

Here is the nams wetbulb temps i was speaking of earlier before any precip arrives. at 950mb/975. (actual temps are subfreezing too)  this is fairly impressive with it's large extent. This look normally has ice written all over it assuming surface temps/DPs/wetbulbs corporate but we'll see. 

 

190111143248.gif

190111143818.gif

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6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

^ Those might be the most visually unappealing weather maps I have ever seen

yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used.  i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. 

here it is with 2 degree intervals. 

 

190111165755.gif

190111165755.gif

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1 hour ago, jjwxman said:

The 12z NAM 3Km is more believable and more inline with local forecasts. 

image.thumb.png.585387db2ed40316ceb730af5362ca2b.png

Nowhere close to what’s forecast in upstate and N GA. Which is why this is still so hard to give any credence to.

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11 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep, pulled that from one of the original sites us old timers used.  i used 1 degree intervals to show the extent of the -1c temps. Unfortunately it's not easy finding sources that show 950 and 975mb wetbulb maps. 

here it is with 2 degree intervals. 

 

190111165755.gif

190111165755.gif

Now those make me nostalgic.

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