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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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The 6z GFS and FV3 both show some ice/snow for central NC northwards on days 7/8.

At this point I wouldn't get excited. We still need more model agreement, get closer to the event, and wrap out heads around the idea of getting a storm where it rains first then changes over to wintery precip; which we know is difficult.   

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7 hours ago, WarmNose said:

Last 10 days of February should offer some oppprtunity. When has a modeled raging SER been short lived? It will take a little more than half of February to chew it up and spit it out. One more shot at a Hail Mary after that. GL. May be odds be ever in your favor 

We’ve had some of our best snows in March! :(

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11 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Is there any hope?  This is depressing. 

Not much. 

Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. 

 I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however,  I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them.  I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 

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28 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Good news snow lovers!  Some of my S.C. friends told me that WYFF said yesterday that the cold weather is over for this winter and an early spring is coming. 

I'm sure that's a false statement. I'm sure winter weather is over. But we all know the NAO will flip negative mid March through April. It won't be cold enough for snow but 40 degree rain it'll be. Spring won't spring until May!

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3 hours ago, Lookout said:

Not much. 

Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. 

 I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however,  I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them.  I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 

I have heard theoretical physicists claim if they can reconcile the theory of relatively and quantum theory they will have the answer to everything.  Well, if that is accomplished I want to see them use that information for a dead on accurate winter forecast for the southeast.

Kind of looking cold and potential for frozen precip in NC the 2nd week in Feb to me per the GFS run I just looked at.  But I guess I didn't see what I saw.

 

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10 hours ago, Lookout said:

Not much. 

Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. 

 I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however,  I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them.  I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it. 

I agree with this mostly, with the caveat that I’d argue that you actually have better than coin flip odds if you go with persistence and go warm.  For whatever reason, warm wins now.  Something is going on that essentially renders analogs of yesteryear useless.

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