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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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33 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

About 2-3 weeks ago, he said the coldest 45 day period that we have ever seen in the East was coming!? Now it’s the middle of March. His winter outlook of -4/-5 below avg for the whole winter, can’t verify! He just keeps hyping, even though he’s already wrong

In his defense, the ENSO collapsing and not producing the Modeki/weak Nino screwed over every single prewinter forecast...

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Larry Cosgrove tonight!

The 64 million dollar question that commodities traders and weather enthusiasts are asking: will the bitter cold return after the expected warming trend. The short answer is an easy one: YES. But the more complicated issue is how that transformation happens, and who can expect to be afflicted by another Arctic intrusion. More to the point, where will important snowfall occur?

The El Nino episode is weakening, particularly along the eastern sectors (the 3.4 and 4 divisions are more or less stable, adding to a Modoki appearance to this ENSO signature). That would lead one to believe that the current big "Arctic blast" is not a one-shot deal, particularly since national temperatures have been cooling since the middle of January. With warmer than normal profiles in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast, the stage should be set for more -EPO type ridging. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and predicted to cover more of the Phase 8 position in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin. So any connection with the polar westerlies might enhance amplification of the jet stream.

Lastly we check the numerical models, which are finally emerging from some late-week chaos to exhibit a cold West vs. warm East alignment at the start of the 11 - 15 day period. That configuration slowly changes to a more central North America trough and finally, to extensive blocking signatures across the West Coast, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. That type of 500MB flow got us to where we are now, and both the CFS and ECMWF model output agree on this rather ominous outlook to last through the rest of February. This particular set-up is very favorable for widespread ice and snow well into the Deep South, as well as frozen precipitation maxima in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. The western 1/3 of the country, meanwhile trends warmer and drier. The pattern looks to continue through the first week of March, before a general collapse into a split flow occurs in the second week towards St. Patrick's Day. That will likely translate to a warmer third month, with plentiful rain and thunderstorms for


.

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9 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Larry Cosgrove tonight!

The 64 million dollar question that commodities traders and weather enthusiasts are asking: will the bitter cold return after the expected warming trend. The short answer is an easy one: YES. But the more complicated issue is how that transformation happens, and who can expect to be afflicted by another Arctic intrusion. More to the point, where will important snowfall occur?

The El Nino episode is weakening, particularly along the eastern sectors (the 3.4 and 4 divisions are more or less stable, adding to a Modoki appearance to this ENSO signature). That would lead one to believe that the current big "Arctic blast" is not a one-shot deal, particularly since national temperatures have been cooling since the middle of January. With warmer than normal profiles in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast, the stage should be set for more -EPO type ridging. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and predicted to cover more of the Phase 8 position in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin. So any connection with the polar westerlies might enhance amplification of the jet stream.

Lastly we check the numerical models, which are finally emerging from some late-week chaos to exhibit a cold West vs. warm East alignment at the start of the 11 - 15 day period. That configuration slowly changes to a more central North America trough and finally, to extensive blocking signatures across the West Coast, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. That type of 500MB flow got us to where we are now, and both the CFS and ECMWF model output agree on this rather ominous outlook to last through the rest of February. This particular set-up is very favorable for widespread ice and snow well into the Deep South, as well as frozen precipitation maxima in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. The western 1/3 of the country, meanwhile trends warmer and drier. The pattern looks to continue through the first week of March, before a general collapse into a split flow occurs in the second week towards St. Patrick's Day. That will likely translate to a warmer third month, with plentiful rain and thunderstorms for


.

So help me understand what Larry is saying here.  We are going to be basically chaotic with cold to warm to cold for next 10 days and then warm 11-15 days before all this settles into a favorable pattern for snow?  That puts out to Feb 10th or so.  Getting a little close to the end of the runway aren't we if this comes to pass...and I remain skeptical?

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13 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

His winter outlook is a total bust and about once a week since January, he’s saying the next 45 days are going to be the coldest ever!! Now he’s backed up to last 2 weeks in Feb/ first 2 weeks in March! They don’t call him Bustardi for nothing!! Total hack

He out of bathwater to slosh now?

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

So help me understand what Larry is saying here.  We are going to be basically chaotic with cold to warm to cold for next 10 days and then warm 11-15 days before all this settles into a favorable pattern for snow?  That puts out to Feb 10th or so.  Getting a little close to the end of the runway aren't we if this comes to pass...and I remain skeptical?

Basically what I was saying last week. Looking long range into the middke of feb the pattern gets real bad. Then if it flips you got another week or so before it affects us. That puts us into the end of feb. Time isn't on our side here...

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21 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Basically what I was saying last week. Looking long range into the middke of feb the pattern gets real bad. Then if it flips you got another week or so before it affects us. That puts us into the end of feb. Time isn't on our side here...

In my neck of the woods we CAN get decent snow until first few days in March but that is very rare almost freak-type in nature.  My rule of thumb is Feb 15th or so because after that the runway gets exponentially short by the day.  The dreaded "sun angle" actually does come into play.   NOT because it inhibits snow storms but because any staying power for snow sticking and enduring on the ground becomes very difficult.  After Feb 15th the radiational heat getting absorbed daily by the ground (especially asphalt) is high and not released as quickly in the shorter dark hours.  Feb 15th sun angle is equal to that of Oct 15th, at least in terms of daylight hours I understand. 

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1 hour ago, nchighcountrywx said:

If you are outside of the High Country, I think you have to hang in there and hope for something after the 15th

See my comments above.  We begin to play from behind down here at that point

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Hmmm. Friend just sent me pics. They are brining roads in Clayton. Ahead of the Tuesday event. His Sunday and Tuesday will bring rain to wash it away before any chance of snow flurries. 

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You boys better root hard for this front and enjoy the refreshing artic air for a few days that follow. After that its looking like we are rooting for a late Feb/ early March freak spring snowstorm. I dont trust a brief warmup,then it rolls back over to cold, atleast not yet. All this backend winter talk, thank the lord we scored early December.

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8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You boys better root hard for this front and enjoy the refreshing artic air for a few days that follow. After that its looking like we are rooting for a late Feb/ early March freak spring snowstorm. I dont trust a brief warmup,then it rolls back over to cold, atleast not yet. All this backend winter talk, thank the lord we scored early December.

JB has punted to last week or so of Feb and March! Who cares because his whole winter forecast has been a fumblrooski, fumblaya, ...

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4 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Basically what I was saying last week. Looking long range into the middke of feb the pattern gets real bad. Then if it flips you got another week or so before it affects us. That puts us into the end of feb. Time isn't on our side here...

If it's true that we'll have to punt till mid Feb in hopes of getting a better pattern after that time, most south of I-40 are probably about done for this winter. I won't throw the towel until there's nothing cooking about the third week of Feb, but I'm getting my towel ready. Of course, even the upstate has had some big snows even mid to late March, but let's be honest, this isn't the 70s or 80s anymore. March is pretty much a Spring month for us. Even the good March NC had a couple years ago did nothing for SC. Unless we get a quick reload to a better pattern (than we've had since early Dec) it's not going to be pretty. On the other hand, as my dad has always said, "you never can tell about fishing and the weather!"

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I still believe we will get cold and snow in  February. That’s usually our best month for snow anyway. 

Lol somebody in the Carolina's will hit 80 in Feb. Mark it down its happening. 

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19 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Lol somebody in the Carolina's will hit 80 in Feb. Mark it down its happening. 

Wehas a mild February last year and a cold March. 3 tines iit snowed in March last winter. Last one was over 4 in.  The first 2 were just a dusting. Oh and the last one was on the 24th of March. 

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Looking at the radar over GOM/FL. Moisture pushing north. Especially Tallahassee.

Maybe some flurries later tonight East of I95 in NC? That is if BL temps cool off and moisture pushes west enough.

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Wehas a mild February last year and a cold March. 3 tines iit snowed in March last winter. Last one was over 4 in.  The first 2 were just a dusting. Oh and the last one was on the 24th of March. 

Most of us don't live in the northern foothills. Just sayin..

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Lol somebody in the Carolina's will hit 80 in Feb. Mark it down its happening. 

Screenshot_20190127-182655_Chrome.thumb.jpg.fd07f77828d066c8ae4c3e43b135adab.jpg

Feb 5th has a shot

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8 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Most of us don't live in the northern foothills. Just sayin..

I’m just saying it can still happen. 

Remember February 12/13  2014 storm?

I had giving up on getting anything before that storm. We would up with 14. Frosty who is in Surry County as well got 21in.

I hope everyone in then SE gets snowed in before winter is done.

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5 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Screenshot_20190127-182655_Chrome.thumb.jpg.fd07f77828d066c8ae4c3e43b135adab.jpg

Feb 5th has a shot

Now if this was a snow storm map for us everyone would call this a clown map. 

So why is this not a clown map. It’s 10 days out. 

How many maps shown on this site have stayed the same as forecasted 10 days out?  I’d say very few if any.  

Just because the GFS and Euro showed a warm up this am doesn’t guarantee it will happen. 

Just like when those models shows a snowstorm for us and then backs off. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I’m just saying it can still happen. 

Remember February 12/13  2014 storm?

I had giving up on getting anything before that storm. We would up with 14. Frosty who is in Surry County as well got 21in.

I hope everyone in then SE gets snowed in before winter is done.

I do too. But most years after Feb 15th it's over down here. And it's clear we'll get to Feb 15th snowless. So I'm sorry if I offend anyone wanting 70 degree weather. I'm thankful for my early December snow but I accept that I'm getting nothing else and I'm ready to put winter behind me.

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Just now, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Now if this was a snow storm map for us everyone would call this a clown map. 

So why is this not a clown map. It’s 10 days out. 

How many maps shown on this site have stayed the same as forecasted 10 days out?  I’d say very few if any.  

Just because the GFS and Euro showed a warm up this am doesn’t guarantee it will happen. 

Just like when those models shows a snowstorm for us and then backs off. 

 

If models show a snowstorm 10 days out, be highly skeptical. When the models show a warm up in 10 days, you better believe it as fact lol.

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Yea it's been showing a southeast ridge...aka warm up for several days on ensembles and global operational models. The warm is coming I'd be willing to bet any amount it will verify

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