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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Just now, CamWX said:

Most everyone here is only interested in the Carolinas, and to a lesser extent, North GA.

As discussed earlier, we need more folks from that region to join. Or we could at least do what the MA folks do and create more sub-region threads. We have one for the mountains we should create one that covers southern/middle Miss/Alabama and Florida. I could see folks there talking about hard freeze potentials and not focused too much on snow; as most current posters do.  

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Hey, this is no longer long term, am going to start a separate thread for the post-frontal snow.

Please and thank you.

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Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

100% agree. Boundary level temps look too warm. I don’t think rates from app can even drop the temps enough to support snow.


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3 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

What about a sub-sub forum for just Carolinas? Or is that too deep into the Matrix...

You really want to break areas into zones with similar weather. One big reason the Tennessee Valley folks broke away from the SE was because of the different weather mechanisms that cause weather on this side of the mountains. CAD is a major component to most our winter storms; but not for the folks west of the mountains. On the other hand you can get good snow in Tennessee with arctic frontal passages, but not too much for us.

So in short, You could create a CAD sub-forum (not Carolinas);  but the biggest obstacle is the fact that most major population areas fall in the CAD zone. **so most folks would just post there anyways..   

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49 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Big time warm up coming starting early next week according to Euro and GFS. Could get in the 50s then 60s for most! :sizzle: 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012600_234_480_210.png

You threw us off when you said “next week”, but yes, after the cold retreats following the PV drop into the Great Lakes, the pattern looks god-awful for wintry interests 

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If we don't score by 2/4 it might be curtains for the rest of the winter absent another reload post 2/15 or so.

Grit,  Do you still see next weekend as viable?

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Just now, CaryWx said:

If we don't score by 2/4 it might be curtains for the rest of the winter absent another reload post 2/15 or so.

Grit,  Do you still see next weekend as viable?

Yes I like the prospects for a storm chance in a window there after the PV moves E/NE out of the Great Lakes

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Also noticed the 06z GFS keeps cold in place until around 2/8 so week after next may not be so bad.

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13 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Also noticed the 06z GFS keeps cold in place until around 2/8 so week after next may not be so bad.

I don't know. Until the ensembles respond call me skeptical. They could be wrong. Just the other day they looked good. But its concerning that while they show cold periodically, they quickly lose it and an awful Pacific is the most consistent thing showing. As of now the long range looks awful and anyone trying to find good in it is trying to polish a turd. Just my opinion though.

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Why are yall sweating LR? Got 3 shots this week. Longest one is sunday night into monday and mainly down east. Artic front again is long shot, but euro is right we can squeeze out .2 if that little wave will develop on tail end. Then next weekend as of now looks great overrunner for almost whole region. May , should have a few more shots post Feb 10 till March. 

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12 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Why are yall sweating LR? Got 3 shots this week. Longest one is sunday night into monday and mainly down east. Artic front again is long shot, but euro is right we can squeeze out .2 if that little wave will develop on tail end. Then next weekend as of now looks great overrunner for almost whole region. May , should have a few more shots post Feb 10 till March. 

Always look forward to reading and your and grit’s post. 

I’m ready for cold and snow.

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24 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Why are yall sweating LR? Got 3 shots this week. Longest one is sunday night into monday and mainly down east. Artic front again is long shot, but euro is right we can squeeze out .2 if that little wave will develop on tail end. Then next weekend as of now looks great overrunner for almost whole region. May , should have a few more shots post Feb 10 till March. 

If we can squeeze out something next weekend I personally wouldn't care what it does LR. But we still have to get half this board some snow since they're still snowless. And some areas very snow starved. So I do pay attention long range and hopefully even if we screw up next weekend there will still be shots.

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

What's the latest trends for Sunday night/Monday?  I know the last EPS had 7/51 with snow for RDU.

I was just taking a peek on my phone to see. Away from house today. Dont have access to euro which is runing now. Maybe someone can chime in that does and give a 10 day update. Watch the 18z nam and short range canadian. Theyll be out around 400 ish today. Ive enjoyed tracking the sunday night monday deall on h5  vort maps. Knowing its  highly unkikely for mby, but it really is so close. Still think northern coastal plain can score here. Well see. Biggest deal for certain is mtns ought th to rack up several inches with front tuesday night into wednesday. Im going 2 to 5 below 4000ft and 4-8 above 4000.  When it want snow in your backyard, what you have to do is forecast for everyone elses and watch it on webcams lol.

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17 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I was just taking a peek on my phone to see. Away from house today. Dont have access to euro which is runing now. Maybe someone can chime in that does and give a 10 day update. Watch the 18z nam and short range canadian. Theyll be out around 400 ish today. Ive enjoyed tracking the sunday night monday deall on h5  vort maps. Knowing its  highly unkikely for mby, but it really is so close. Still think northern coastal plain can score here. Well see. Biggest deal for certain is mtns ought th to rack up several inches with front tuesday night into wednesday. Im going 2 to 5 below 4000ft and 4-8 above 4000.  When it want snow in your backyard, what you have to do is forecast for everyone elses and watch it on webcams lol.

Worth noting in the recent event in the northeast the short range models were all too far south and east and lost to globals. Now that the roles are reversed i don’t have much trust in any of the individual runs until their is consensus 

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The Euro not only shows little to no snow with the front but it doesn't even get that cold behind it until a reinforcing push Wednesday night

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7 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

What happened to the MaDookie Niño j was promised? I guess those prognostications didn’t age well..

What happened to productive posting in the discussion thread?

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26 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

What happened to productive posting in the discussion thread?

It’s a valid point? Seems like we’re neutral now? My question is why was that missed? Anyway, I hate to clutter up the main thread at a time like this when there’s so much winter weather to track. Carry on 

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Just now, WarmNose said:

It’s a valid point? Seems like we’re neutral now? My question is why was that missed? Anyway, I hate to clutter up the main thread at a time like this when there’s so much winter weather to track. Carry on 

True story! Everybody is saying the sea temps and stuff are acting like a Nina, hence the sucky winter S and E of 85

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Gvegas up to Elizabeth City got nam'ed. Congrats. Still think tommorow night into Monday could get even better. Follow the short range models at h5. Leading the way. 

NAM’d with rain. LOL

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