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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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20 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Wow. Incredible run of the GFS. We get a PV reminent in our back yard and we’re still tracking cutters 

It’s happened before - Jan 1994. Rainstorm sandwiched in between 2 big arctic blasts with single digit lows. 500mb configuration has to be right along with having the cold air

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FV3 double downs on the cold... I know I know it's fantasy, but wow! 27 in the panhandle of FL for a highfv3p_T2m_us_64.png

 

I see a -8 at CLT one night

fv3p_T2m_neus_62.png

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sfct.conus.png

I don't recall ever seeing a model forecast with highs in the single digits for my area since I have been following the models back in the early 1990's. Even in fantasy land. If this cold shot verifies, as some of the runs suggest, we will be talking about this one for many years to come. This would mean lows well below zero for a lot of folks. I know it will never happen.... is it even possible in today's climate?

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33 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

sfct.conus.png

I don't recall ever seeing a model forecast with highs in the single digits for my area since I have been following the models back in the early 1990's. Even in fantasy land. If this cold shot verifies, as some of the runs suggest, we will be talking about this one for many years to come. This would mean lows well below zero for a lot of folks. I know it will never happen.... is it even possible in today's climate?

Definitely possible in today's climate, but obviously, this would be quite an extreme outbreak, and therefore, quite unlikely. 

But boy...the lows on the mornings of the 27th and 28th are stupid cold. 

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Ok, yeah right.  -15° for a HIGH temp all the way down to Lexington KY would be beyond historic.  Now I did sit thru the 1981 AFC Championship Game in Cincy where we were below zero at game time with a -59° wind chill.  So I guess anything is possible.  But if there is any model consensus to support the GFS, even this far out, the public alarms need to be sounded.  You are talking about life threatening cold for over half the nation!  (For days!!)

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FV3 has been consistent of a very deep trough setting up.. a PV displacement into the NE... with a full scale -NAO block.  The temps are likely overblown of course, given climo, but looking more and more likely of a serious below avg period in temps will be setting up, starting next week.

aXIN5U4.gif

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23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The 0z wasn’t as stupid cold , so GFS just being GFS, nor Euro support! So your pipes are safe

Well......EPS mean and control both have massive cold a shots around that time, as well as the Canadian ensembles (pictured). Not to the insane extent of the FV3 necessarily, but the signal is clear for cold. 

 

cmc_t850a_exnamer_59.thumb.png.e4e82b9a3a85bd02d78e4fbe11ee5bc3.png

 

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Verbatim, the FV3 cold would beat the Jan '85 outbreak.  Greater area under -30 or lower 850 temps (Sorry, I'm slightly bored this morning :D)

FV3 forecast

k5Qp4Tb.png

Jan 21, 1985, 0z

PACIdit.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Verbatim, the FV3 cold would beat the Jan '85 outbreak.  Greater area under -30 or lower 850 temps (Sorry, I'm slightly bored this morning :D)

FV3 forecast

 

Jan 21, 1985, 0z

 

 

The pattern as depicted on the FV3 just keeps reloading, too. 

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Verbatim, the FV3 cold would beat the Jan '85 outbreak.  Greater area under -30 or lower 850 temps (Sorry, I'm slightly bored this morning :D)

FV3 forecast...

 

I grew up in Memphis, TN and survived that '85 arctic outbreak - I recall having one day with a high below 0 - we had snow on the ground for weeks and I was out of school for nearly a month (almost the entire month of January) - 70's/80's winters were great

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The pattern as depicted on the FV3 just keeps reloading, too. 

Yeah, there's a s/w moving through right after the big cold bombs starts to lift, leaving the 850mb 0 line over the FL panhandle.  Then another big arctic high with -40C air moves south from the N plains.  That's how you get a big snow from New Orleans to Savannah, 1899 style.  C'mon, let's make it happen!

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7 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

I grew up in Memphis, TN and survived that '85 arctic outbreak - I recall having one day with a high below 0 - we had snow on the ground for weeks and I was out of school for nearly a month (almost the entire month of January) - 70's/80's winters were great

GSP must have suffered from downsloping in that outbreak and only got to -4, which isn't the all time record. I was in Dacusville though and got to -14. I have some vague memories but was too young to really appreciate or experience it. For that reason I'd love to see it happen one more time in my life. This one being modeled is probably way overdone but would fit the bill. 

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'85 Arctic Outbreak Memories (from the Mid-South):

The '85 Arctic Outbreak was well forecasted/predicted - recall reading about in the newspaper/on TV days prior

High temp one day was below zero (I recall the meteorologists on TV were speechless/shaking their heads) - I used to watch (the regionally famous) meteorologist Dave Brown on WMC-TV Memphis all the time (BTW, I used to watch Dave Brown/Lance Russell hosting "Championship Wrestling" every Sat morning as a kid - had no idea I was watching history)

The month of Jan/early Feb 1985 was incredible for wintry weather: snow started falling NYD 1985 (or just thereafter) and remained on the ground (after multiple other snowfalls) for 3-4 weeks (in Memphis, TN)

I recall being picked up by the school bus in mid-January in mod-heavy snow (snow had just started) - got to school - heavy sleet/snow continued without abatement - and, we were dismissed about an hour later

 

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1 hour ago, drfranklin said:

- I used to watch (the regionally famous) meteorologist Dave Brown on WMC-TV Memphis all the time (BTW, I used to watch Dave Brown/Lance Russell hosting "Championship Wrestling" every Sat morning as a kid - had no idea I was watching history)

 

Hah! I remember Dave Brown. I grew up early in life, in Tupelo. Watched every Saturday morning as well. 

Jerry The King Lawler, Tojo Yamamoto, and of course, Jim Cornett. Memphis was the epicenter.

I was in Louisiana in 1985, so that particular cold wave doesn’t stick out. 

I remember some very cold spells, and great storms in central MS in the 70’s-80’s.  Walked out onto the frozen Ross Barnett Reservoir during one. Not particularly smart.

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3 hours ago, msuwx said:

Definitely possible in today's climate, but obviously, this would be quite an extreme outbreak, and therefore, quite unlikely. 

But boy...the lows on the mornings of the 27th and 28th are stupid cold. 

Definitely possibly. In NE TN, it is not unusual to go below zero.

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00z Euro drops backend snow for next weekend. The models are abandoning us. I'm sure it's fluctuation, but it's annoying.

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3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I wouldn't worry too much. It has a 1052 high in upstate NY and it cuts and we rain? Yeah right!!

GFS plowing bias... Ignore and assume suppression 

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS plowing bias... Ignore and assume suppression 

Or just the general difficulty with pattern changes. I am worried, though, about the MJO heading back to unfavorable phases. It might put a hold on things till we get into February, though it'll still be cold at least.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

GFS plowing bias... Ignore and assume suppression 

I can guarantee you with 100% confidence that it will never happen as shown. There is no way a 1052 Hp in the NE doesn't drive enough cold are down for a mega wedge. Temps would be well below freezing in all the CAD areas. I call BS.

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The Jan of 85 "outbreak" had Me Stationed in Ft. Knox KY. With broken heat in our Barracks.. BRUTAL.. We had to go & start & keep our APC's tanks etc,  every 6 hours or so, cranked up to be "mission ready".. Many below ZERO Days & nights..  I mostly stayed in My Recovery vehicle, running, a M-578.. To keep warm, I camped out in this bad boy..

BOT: My Local NWS is calling for snow Showers in the AM on the 21st.. 

 

 

578.jpg

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