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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Starts off with warning ice accretion followed by heavy snow with temps around 20 followed by lows near zero. 

What are the snow totals?

That's insane enough that I don't believe it'll happen as such, but I believe we will get something.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

What are the snow totals?

That's insane enough that I don't believe it'll happen as such, but I believe we will get something.

Also 2” total QPF. Snow totals around 3” in Durham County but much heavier just north and west. 

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And it’s absolutely insane to consider an event like that. You usually don’t see storms that go from freezing rain to snow here.

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Actually, looking at it, 925 temps are at around -5 to -7 in the triangle so that’s sleet and not freezing rain before the snow. If I had to guess, the snow/sleet line is around hillsborough to just north of Durham.

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17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

And it’s absolutely insane to consider an event like that. You usually don’t see storms that go from freezing rain to snow here.

Yeah very rare....1980 was ZR/sleet to start with temps in the mid 30's before temps crashed into the teens with SN+........the 12Z GFS takes PGV from 43 and rain to 23 and heavy sleet/snow in one frame. Would indeed be absolutely insane to see a 20 degree temp drop in 6 hrs after precip started.....FV3 even more ridiculous temp of 60 to low 20's in 6 hrs....I would give anything to see this actually happen....

 

HR fv3p_T2m_neus_34.thumb.png.80a915b2fc264128152374a12df7a3d9.png

 

fv3p_T2m_neus_35.thumb.png.910f7709a0716f9ca1706ce2b43fb90e.png

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EST Sat Jan 12 2019


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Big issue up front - Challenging short term forecast, with chance of
winter precip over far northeast Georgia tonight. Model guidance
today has come in a little warmer, but with dew points in the teens
and twenties this afternoon, still concerned wet-bulbing could allow
temperatures to drop enough for a larger area to see accumulating
ice. That being said, confidence continues to increase that this is
a marginal event, and that freezing rain will likely be brief if at
all and would limited to just a few hours rather than through the
entire overnight period. The favored area for accumulations remains
the higher elevations of northeast Georgia, and the existing Winter
Weather Advisory will continue with no changes to the area or
amounts. What you thinking lookout?

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MAJOR cold continuing to show up in eastern Canada after the 20th; 40s and even some 50s BELOW ZERO. However, it does not want to propogate much across the border. For the SE, while we look to get colder, we don't see much of the arctic air, only getting in to 20s and 10s in the upstate. If Toronto is -50, I would like to think we could have a run at something below zero here, but as usual, the cold stuff either stays west of the apps, or gets hung up in the apps and we downslope into much warmer temps. Great signs for several possible systems during the upcoming time frame, and that's really all we can ask for. Would be nice if everyone on the board could get something during the period. If I were in Tennesse, NC, VA I would be ecstatic! Hopefully the I-85 and I-20 folks can all get in on this too.   

 

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The mid to long term is looking good for threats of winter wx over the next 3+ weeks.  Definitely below normal with temps.

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Wow the 18z FV3 puts us in the freezer after next weekend.  The climax is in 2 weeks from Sunday with widespread highs in the teens and 20s.  LOL.  Last sub-20 high here was in Feb '96.  

Here is the 18z (2pm) temp forecast for Jan 27:

AcGTwzw.png

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Even sooner than that, my point and click forecast on the night of the 21st shows MINUS 7 °???  Snow next Sunday and Monday?? Highs in the 20s!!  

I'm thinking that has to be some bad data.

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19 minutes ago, Wow said:

Wow the 18z FV3 puts us in the freezer after next weekend.  The climax is in 2 weeks from Sunday with widespread highs in the teens and 20s.  LOL.  Last sub-20 high here was in Feb '96.  

Here is the 18z (2pm) temp forecast for Jan 27:

AcGTwzw.png

I would like to see that once in my life. GSP all-time low-high is 18; this would easily break that. Also saw lows around this time below zero for me, and teens below for mtns! Feb 1899, Jan 85 anyone?

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9 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

That would be a quick turnaround with a forecast high of 60 on Saturday!

Often times, cold air masses are proceeded by a strong front and the day before is characterized by a strong southerly flow moving CCW around the low bringing in warm air.  

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9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Often times, cold air masses are proceeded by a strong front and the day before is characterized by a strong southerly flow moving CCW around the low bringing in warm air.  

Thanks,  just read up on thermal ridges!

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27 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I would like to see that once in my life. GSP all-time low-high is 18; this would easily break that. Also saw lows around this time below zero for me, and teens below for mtns! Feb 1899, Jan 85 anyone?

Overated! Was in Gastonia for 85, walked the whole creek in the neighborhood, frozen solid and walked on ponds all the way across! Good times

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WRAL's look for next Saturday night.  Pretty sure this is the cold pressing down with copious amounts of precip.

ice_2011_forecast_surface_night8_4x3-DMI

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On the 18Z run of the FV3, the 540 line is south of VA from hour 174 to the end of the run.  Wow.  Lots of cold, with wintry weather chances to boot!

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Just now, calculus1 said:

On the 18Z run of the FV3, the 540 line is south of VA from hour 174 to the end of the run.  Wow.  Lots of cold, with wintry weather chances to boot!

I’ve seen a couple runs lately with the 498 line dipping into the state. 

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12z today the Canadian had accumulating snow NW NC from Triad back as early as this coming Friday. See if the crazy uncle cooks up another one tonight. First i saw of a Jan 20 storm was on the canadian at hr 240 this past Thursday. 

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23 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

On the 18Z run of the FV3, the 540 line is south of VA from hour 174 to the end of the run.  Wow.  Lots of cold, with wintry weather chances to boot!

No need to use the 540 line in the modern era.

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Might be the GFS northern stream bias, or might be a real trend, but the coastal developing along the Arctic front has disappeared on 18z and looks that way on 00z as well. It's still so far out that I don't feel concerned either way.

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Might be the GFS northern stream bias, or might be a real trend, but the coastal developing along the Arctic front has disappeared on 18z and looks that way on 00z as well. It's still so far out that I don't feel concerned either way.

My guess is the GFS is a POS. I dunno.

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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

No need to use the 540 line in the modern era.

But the 498 thickness visiting NC is really rare. You have to admit that.

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

My guess is the GFS is a POS. I dunno.

Euro is moving in that direction a little bit too, but not nearly as much. It seems that the key to the GFS behavior is that it brings down a lot of northern stream energy and phases it with the southern stream. The earlier runs had a great deal of stream separation. I've seen the models happily phase at this range, only to reverse later on (usually to slow down the southern stream). So I think we actually have a good shot at having the southern energy amp up as or after the cold is arriving. Or it could get crushed. We'll see.

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