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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

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2 minutes ago, ajr said:

Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

We could only hope. It would be epic for all of us which means it is highly likely it will not happen.

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6 minutes ago, ajr said:

Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

Too bad it's counting on a 1052 high! Never, EVER happen! Seeing that is kinda like when Will and Carlton made Geoffrey think he had one the lottery!

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43 minutes ago, ajr said:

Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

Just the evolution of the storm and what follows is like a Jan. 2011 redux.

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33 minutes ago, ajr said:

Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.

And another on it's heels.

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12z GFS continues to show ridiculously cold temperatures in the LR. A low of 20 in Pensacola, FL on the 25th? Insane.

It also seems to agree with the Euro on the rain-to-snow scenario in the 8-9 day range. With that much cold air coming down, I absolutely believe the possibility of a backside snowstorm. We just gotta keep the moisture.

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21 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Too bad it's counting on a 1052 high! Never, EVER happen! Seeing that is kinda like when Will and Carlton made Geoffrey think he had one the lottery!

1052 is much more likely in the new pattern.

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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

12z GFS continues to show ridiculously cold temperatures in the LR. A low of 20 in Pensacola, FL on the 25th? Insane.

It also seems to agree with the Euro on the rain-to-snow scenario in the 8-9 day range. With that much cold air coming down, I absolutely believe the possibility of a backside snowstorm. We just gotta keep the moisture.

We’ve definitely saw that before with similar air masses. Talk about a flash freeze.

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January 20 looks like something to watch, but the temperatures are still marginal.  January 19 looks like we get a stiff southerly wind bringing in warm air ahead of the cold air mass.  I don't like the cold chasing moisture scenario.  Seems like it worked out in our favor last year or 2 years ago.  I remember Brad P saying there was noway we got snow out of that type of system, but then it evolved and we ended up getting something.

Then it does look like the pattern turns super cold.  We will see if it stays that way.  

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Cold like that worries me for over suppression, at least in my area. Too many cold chasing moisture looks in the long range thus far, hoping to see some west to east tracking gulf lows. Also that Atlantic ridge could relax just a little bit, keep things from cutting up the coast too fast.

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I really never worry too much about suppression of any duration.  WAA and cold chasing moisture scenarios do us in more often then not.

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49 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We’ve definitely saw that before with similar air masses. Talk about a flash freeze.

Seems like 10 years ago, cant remeber but only time i ever saw it. Takes a mamouth artic front to pull it off. Had mod snow for like 15 minutes behind the front and everything froze solid. Temps plummeted like down into low 20s within the hour.

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58 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

1052 is much more likely in the new pattern.

I don't know Widre.  That's pretty hefty and would be interesting to see if it validates plus how long it stays at 1052 and not flex down in pressure rather quickly 

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Really really nice LR run of the 12z GFS, 1/19-1/21 is very close to a sig winter storm for the eastern US, not far off from being a long wave axis going neg tilt ivo the MS river.  Then another chance, albeit less impressive at H5 on 1/23, wrapping up with a lobe of the PV in SE Canada with energy entering MT.

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20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Seems like 10 years ago, cant remeber but only time i ever saw it. Takes a mamouth artic front to pull it off. Had mod snow for like 15 minutes behind the front and everything froze solid. Temps plummeted like down into low 20s within the hour.

I think you’re referencing Jan 2005

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12 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Really really nice LR run of the 12z GFS, 1/19-1/21 is very close to a sig winter storm for the eastern US, not far off from being a long wave axis going neg tilt ivo the MS river.  Then another chance, albeit less impressive at H5 on 1/23, wrapping up with a lobe of the PV in SE Canada with energy entering MT.

Yep big signal  for both. Hopefully we all can score a good week or two of winter.

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I think you’re referencing Jan 2005

Sounds about right. Hard to get those east of apps. Having to wait on shallow dense cold air to get up and over.

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7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

12z Euro is an absolute massive winter storm.

How does it look at the surface? Weather.us no longer has the free maps...

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Just now, WidreMann said:

How does it look at the surface? Weather.us no longer has the free maps...

Starts off with warning ice accretion followed by heavy snow with temps around 20 followed by lows near zero. 

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