December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is a good example of what just a little better pattern can do even with a west track on the 8th-9th. Confluence holding a cad high is one of the more typical ways we get snow in a mediocre pattern. It's a @WinterWxLuvr special on the panels. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs is a good example of what just a little better pattern can do even with a west track on the 8th-9th. Confluence holding a cad high is one of the more typical ways we get snow in a mediocre pattern. It's a @WinterWxLuvr special on the panels. 

Gfs is starting to show the effects of the nao blocking. Yea it's a flawed pattern with PAC puke airmass flooding across under the blocking BUT...you keep running those juiced up systems west to east under the block with highs to the north during the coldest time of the year and one is likely to work out. 

Get the Pacific just slightly better and it becomes a money pattern fast. 

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The 8th-9th is the next chance after the upcoming fail. Keep an eye on that period. GFS has the storm but too far NW. Could easily get pushed under us though. 

So you've given up on next Thurs-Fri? Lol

[cbmclean]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs is starting to show the effects of the nao blocking. Yea it's a flawed pattern with PAC puke airmass flooding across under the blocking BUT...you keep running those juiced up systems west to east under the block with highs to the north during the coldest time of the year and one is likely to work out. 

Get the Pacific just slightly better and it becomes a money pattern fast. 

Alright, euro shows MJO going through phase 6 at low amplitude then into COD.  Who else has guidance?

[nj2va]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Alright, euro shows MJO going through phase 6 at low amplitude then into COD.  Who else has guidance.

You can see them all here:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml.  GEFS and CFS get us to Phase 7 in the next 7ish days...hope its right.

[WxUSAF]

Best looking GEFS run in a couple days to my eye. Cross polar flow, -AO, -NAO, +EPO, +PNA, and undercutting subtropical jet after the 11th or so. 

[psuhoffman]

Gefs still looks weird at the end. -epo -nao -ao trough in Europe and Aleutians but no corresponding trough over the Conus. Just warm all over. Even after the PAC trough backs off no sign of a response. 

[WxUSAF]

FV3 has the same sort of front end frozen on the 8th storm as the  gfs.

[nj2va]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Best looking GEFS run in a couple days to my eye. Cross polar flow, -AO, -NAO, +EPO, +PNA, and undercutting subtropical jet after the 11th or so. 

Agreed. Can you explain a bit more on the undercutting STJ?  Is that what I’ve circled in black?  Would it not be undercutting if the isobars were all parallel in the +PNA?  Thanks for the insight.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs still looks weird at the end. -epo -nao -ao trough in Europe and Aleutians but no corresponding trough over the Conus. Just warm all over. Even after the PAC trough backs off no sign of a response. 

Yeah, 500mb is still odd over NA, but look below. Very cold air nearer the surface. That’s a decent look. Especially with the storminess advertised.

@nj2va yes you got it. Look at the GEFS precip panels. Shows an active pattern.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'd trust the Euro more right now because it's picking up on the ridging in Europe. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Best looking GEFS run in a couple days to my eye. Cross polar flow, -AO, -NAO, +EPO, +PNA, and undercutting subtropical jet after the 11th or so. 

Yea all true and it looks great globally everywhere it matter...except over us lol.  Every telle says there should be a trough over the eastern Conus.  But yet....

I'm not bailing and it's a step I guess but getting tired of baby steps and extrapolations. 

[psuhoffman]

@WxUSAF your right just looked at the 850 and surface and colder than I thought. Not great but workable. But I also suspect if the gfs is right about the mjo AND the other global longwave pattern telleconnections that it's wrong about the h5 ridge over the central US. It would be pretty difficult for all those features to coexist. At least for long. 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO isn't going to do it for the 3rd/4th threat, and the GEFS were less than inspiring. 

[frd]

Since we talked about the MJO earlier I thought you might be interested @psuhoffman 

I have read this eslewhere and see Tip @Typhoon Tip over in the New England forum wrote about this as well recently. 

I find it makes sense and is highly relevant. Whether what he is saying is responsible for crazy high amp MJO and the warmth,  including the Nino being more Nina I am not sure. 

But, again makes sense to me that when you remove gradients things cease to evolve and all that stuff about for every action there is a reaction. The lack of gradient may well be an issue.

Maybe this is even at play with the non-coupling of the El Nino ocean and atmosphere. 

I thought you might want to check it out.    

Here is the post from Tip 

 

I realize this doesn't seem to resonate too well in this particular, internet social-media community but...  I believe the warmer overall Terran atmosphere is possibly disrupting the correlations.

I have noticed an ...albeit ostensible failure between event/phenomenon quotas that are more typically ensuing during/because of various ENSO states over the last ten years.  That may not seem to be a large enough data set to really get one's knickers in a bunch ... ? But, let us not focus on that "ten year" time span; that is a ten years that happens to have a huge, packed set of expectation that did not appear to materialize, or if so ... did so in pallid fashion.  Something is causing weaker responses ...

And honestly that can be vetted further.  I'm more at tacitly aware.  The tenor mass-media over those ten years may simply be not able to make money off that so being an enterprise they headline elsewhere... But, just the same, my nose is science sites regularly that are referencing papered/reviewed works over the years, too. 

See ... it goes like:  those correlations are based upon results during different gradient-balancing(ed)-years. I've explained this in the past...  I'm not sure folks really get what that means, ...But, a 30-year oceanic-atmospheric coupled data set are first, fixed scalar results (ENSO), back whence. The problem is ... then being used during a changing system - in physical terms "accelerating", i.e., not a system that is producing those scalars.

While not a red flag necessarily ... certainly that should tilt up an eyebrow. 

Maybe these "modoki" this and uncharacteristic La Nina thats are just a demonstration of that "gap growing" disconnect. Most climate scientists, models, and the empirical data that supports the entire panoply of environmental monitoring ...all of it signal the climate change is indeed an d(accelerating) phenomenon.  In other words, not just changing but speeding up in that change.

I've said this before ...I'll say it again ... gradient gradient gradient. It's everything. Rudimentary principle requirement of reality its self really ... Without it, Nature stops on a dime. Everything in the Universe ceases to exist ...  if there are no gradients. One's very heart beat is based upon electronic/chemical generate gradients, where potential builds, the gate opens, physically expressed by the heart beat... Gate closes... potential builds up... and you'd better hope it rinses and repeats or its adios muchacho. And that includes where the wind blows ...

The SSTs of the Pac NINO districts may not mean the same thing to this era's atmosphere, compared to 1918 gradients... or even the middle part of last century when the cause-and-effect matrix of oceanic-atmospheric coupling was established.  Because we are changing the integral of the system of gradients. 

In a way, it's almost a comic of follies ... All the pouring over data set of ENSO this and that spanning years ...balanced against all, and the ENSO part of it may in fact be almost irrelevant if the "change" isn't somehow integral in that process. Which may be ... I don't know for certain - doesn't seem like it is though. At all echelons of sophistication ... the application appears pretty linear/literal to me.

 

Thing is... it occurred to me back post the super-nino ... was that like three years ago now. No ..can't be that far, is it? I think it was 2016 ... Anyway, the global impacts from that "super nino" ...didn't generate much vitriol in the headlines.  And I sniffed around ... why? Because there wasn't much.  I even saw papers written ...articles that also discussed plausible explanations why.  

I'm sure the impacts of that event were registered somewhere some how more or less.. but, it didn't concomitantly result comparative to the anomaly its self.  

We have to be careful... it's not black or white, either.  It's more how factors and forces stress systems - or can ... gradient distribution - which is also a changing in time.  So it's more like pushing results up and down a spectrum.  In a colder atmosphere overall, introducing a hot-house SST inferno ENSO up underneath is going to result a coherent registry of observations in the atmosphere.  I'm highly confident there is veracity in at least that baser precept.  And if that's true ... logically the rest follows.

Yeah... supposition... but, if the atmosphere is 90 F everywhere, and the water is 90 F everywhere... what does one think will happen? ...

[aldie 22]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

Since we talked about the MJO earlier I thought you might be interested @psuhoffman 

I have read this eslewhere and see Tip @Typhoon Tip over in the New England forum wrote about this as well recently. 

I find it makes sense and is highly relevant. Whether what he is saying is responsible for crazy high amp MJO and the warmth,  including the Nino being more Nina I am not sure. 

But, again makes sense to me that when you remove gradients things cease to evolve and all that stuff about for every action there is a reaction. The lack of gradient may well be an issue.

Maybe this is even at play with the non-coupling of the El Nino ocean and atmosphere. 

I thought you might want to check it out.    

Here is the post from Tip 

 

I realize this doesn't seem to resonate too well in this particular, internet social-media community but...  I believe the warmer overall Terran atmosphere is possibly disrupting the correlations.

I have noticed an ...albeit ostensible failure between event/phenomenon quotas that are more typically ensuing during/because of various ENSO states over the last ten years.  That may not seem to be a large enough data set to really get one's knickers in a bunch ... ? But, let us not focus on that "ten year" time span; that is a ten years that happens to have a huge, packed set of expectation that did not appear to materialize, or if so ... did so in pallid fashion.  Something is causing weaker responses ...

And honestly that can be vetted further.  I'm more at tacitly aware.  The tenor mass-media over those ten years may simply be not able to make money off that so being an enterprise they headline elsewhere... But, just the same, my nose is science sites regularly that are referencing papered/reviewed works over the years, too. 

See ... it goes like:  those correlations are based upon results during different gradient-balancing(ed)-years. I've explained this in the past...  I'm not sure folks really get what that means, ...But, a 30-year oceanic-atmospheric coupled data set are first, fixed scalar results (ENSO), back whence. The problem is ... then being used during a changing system - in physical terms "accelerating", i.e., not a system that is producing those scalars.

While not a red flag necessarily ... certainly that should tilt up an eyebrow. 

Maybe these "modoki" this and uncharacteristic La Nina thats are just a demonstration of that "gap growing" disconnect. Most climate scientists, models, and the empirical data that supports the entire panoply of environmental monitoring ...all of it signal the climate change is indeed an d(accelerating) phenomenon.  In other words, not just changing but speeding up in that change.

I've said this before ...I'll say it again ... gradient gradient gradient. It's everything. Rudimentary principle requirement of reality its self really ... Without it, Nature stops on a dime. Everything in the Universe ceases to exist ...  if there are no gradients. One's very heart beat is based upon electronic/chemical generate gradients, where potential builds, the gate opens, physically expressed by the heart beat... Gate closes... potential builds up... and you'd better hope it rinses and repeats or its adios muchacho. And that includes where the wind blows ...

The SSTs of the Pac NINO districts may not mean the same thing to this era's atmosphere, compared to 1918 gradients... or even the middle part of last century when the cause-and-effect matrix of oceanic-atmospheric coupling was established.  Because we are changing the integral of the system of gradients. 

In a way, it's almost a comic of follies ... All the pouring over data set of ENSO this and that spanning years ...balanced against all, and the ENSO part of it may in fact be almost irrelevant if the "change" isn't somehow integral in that process. Which may be ... I don't know for certain - doesn't seem like it is though. At all echelons of sophistication ... the application appears pretty linear/literal to me.

 

Thing is... it occurred to me back post the super-nino ... was that like three years ago now. No ..can't be that far, is it? I think it was 2016 ... Anyway, the global impacts from that "super nino" ...didn't generate much vitriol in the headlines.  And I sniffed around ... why? Because there wasn't much.  I even saw papers written ...articles that also discussed plausible explanations why.  

I'm sure the impacts of that event were registered somewhere some how more or less.. but, it didn't concomitantly result comparative to the anomaly its self.  

We have to be careful... it's not black or white, either.  It's more how factors and forces stress systems - or can ... gradient distribution - which is also a changing in time.  So it's more like pushing results up and down a spectrum.  In a colder atmosphere overall, introducing a hot-house SST inferno ENSO up underneath is going to result a coherent registry of observations in the atmosphere.  I'm highly confident there is veracity in at least that baser precept.  And if that's true ... logically the rest follows.

Yeah... supposition... but, if the atmosphere is 90 F everywhere, and the water is 90 F everywhere... what does one think will happen? ...

Man that Tip is long winded

[aldie 22]

15 minutes ago, frd said:

Since we talked about the MJO earlier I thought you might be interested @psuhoffman 

I have read this eslewhere and see Tip @Typhoon Tip over in the New England forum wrote about this as well recently. 

I find it makes sense and is highly relevant. Whether what he is saying is responsible for crazy high amp MJO and the warmth,  including the Nino being more Nina I am not sure. 

But, again makes sense to me that when you remove gradients things cease to evolve and all that stuff about for every action there is a reaction. The lack of gradient may well be an issue.

Maybe this is even at play with the non-coupling of the El Nino ocean and atmosphere. 

I thought you might want to check it out.    

Here is the post from Tip 

 

I realize this doesn't seem to resonate too well in this particular, internet social-media community but...  I believe the warmer overall Terran atmosphere is possibly disrupting the correlations.

I have noticed an ...albeit ostensible failure between event/phenomenon quotas that are more typically ensuing during/because of various ENSO states over the last ten years.  That may not seem to be a large enough data set to really get one's knickers in a bunch ... ? But, let us not focus on that "ten year" time span; that is a ten years that happens to have a huge, packed set of expectation that did not appear to materialize, or if so ... did so in pallid fashion.  Something is causing weaker responses ...

And honestly that can be vetted further.  I'm more at tacitly aware.  The tenor mass-media over those ten years may simply be not able to make money off that so being an enterprise they headline elsewhere... But, just the same, my nose is science sites regularly that are referencing papered/reviewed works over the years, too. 

See ... it goes like:  those correlations are based upon results during different gradient-balancing(ed)-years. I've explained this in the past...  I'm not sure folks really get what that means, ...But, a 30-year oceanic-atmospheric coupled data set are first, fixed scalar results (ENSO), back whence. The problem is ... then being used during a changing system - in physical terms "accelerating", i.e., not a system that is producing those scalars.

While not a red flag necessarily ... certainly that should tilt up an eyebrow. 

Maybe these "modoki" this and uncharacteristic La Nina thats are just a demonstration of that "gap growing" disconnect. Most climate scientists, models, and the empirical data that supports the entire panoply of environmental monitoring ...all of it signal the climate change is indeed an d(accelerating) phenomenon.  In other words, not just changing but speeding up in that change.

I've said this before ...I'll say it again ... gradient gradient gradient. It's everything. Rudimentary principle requirement of reality its self really ... Without it, Nature stops on a dime. Everything in the Universe ceases to exist ...  if there are no gradients. One's very heart beat is based upon electronic/chemical generate gradients, where potential builds, the gate opens, physically expressed by the heart beat... Gate closes... potential builds up... and you'd better hope it rinses and repeats or its adios muchacho. And that includes where the wind blows ...

The SSTs of the Pac NINO districts may not mean the same thing to this era's atmosphere, compared to 1918 gradients... or even the middle part of last century when the cause-and-effect matrix of oceanic-atmospheric coupling was established.  Because we are changing the integral of the system of gradients. 

In a way, it's almost a comic of follies ... All the pouring over data set of ENSO this and that spanning years ...balanced against all, and the ENSO part of it may in fact be almost irrelevant if the "change" isn't somehow integral in that process. Which may be ... I don't know for certain - doesn't seem like it is though. At all echelons of sophistication ... the application appears pretty linear/literal to me.

 

Thing is... it occurred to me back post the super-nino ... was that like three years ago now. No ..can't be that far, is it? I think it was 2016 ... Anyway, the global impacts from that "super nino" ...didn't generate much vitriol in the headlines.  And I sniffed around ... why? Because there wasn't much.  I even saw papers written ...articles that also discussed plausible explanations why.  

I'm sure the impacts of that event were registered somewhere some how more or less.. but, it didn't concomitantly result comparative to the anomaly its self.  

We have to be careful... it's not black or white, either.  It's more how factors and forces stress systems - or can ... gradient distribution - which is also a changing in time.  So it's more like pushing results up and down a spectrum.  In a colder atmosphere overall, introducing a hot-house SST inferno ENSO up underneath is going to result a coherent registry of observations in the atmosphere.  I'm highly confident there is veracity in at least that baser precept.  And if that's true ... logically the rest follows.

Yeah... supposition... but, if the atmosphere is 90 F everywhere, and the water is 90 F everywhere... what does one think will happen? ...

Oh and I wonder if he is correct 

[Ji]

the 288 Euro should look interesting

[Maestrobjwa]

I do hope 7-10 days from now we can finally have some more clarity on things. Hard to know what to expect now!

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 288 Euro should look interesting

You know this winter was dead from that statt when you have a 1040+ high and northwest flow behind a bombing low and you still cant get below freezing.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

You can see them all here:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml.  GEFS and CFS get us to Phase 7 in the next 7ish days...hope its right.

Wake me when the move from phase 7 to 8 begins please.

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wake me when the move from phase 7 to 8 begins please.

Euro actually gets into phase 8....albeit weak.  Too quick, imo because it kills the wave taking a shortcut through the COD....curious to see if the 12z eps picks up on a phase 8ish pattern toward the end of the run...

[Ralph Wiggum]

You know it's a weird season when surface lows are travelling SE down the Cali coast. Wth

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 288 Euro should look interesting

Havent looked at 500mb maps but I will venture the following 2 scenarios would probably happen given the trends this season.....either SW storm slows down then finally comes out but cuts up the OV or suppression city.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

12z Euro looks horrible, we are going really +NAO

[NorthArlington101]

EPS not particularly promising for the next 10 days. The 3rd-4th is the only threat window and the mean doesn’t get past .1” for DC.

Yikes.

[poolz1]

EPS is blah imo....Ridge in Japan....Mitch would disapprove 

[cbmclean]

53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wake me when the move from phase 7 to 8 begins please.

Best case scenario still looks to be CFS, entering phase 8 ~Jan 6th.  Hope it's right.

[midatlanticweather]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You know it's a weird season when surface lows are travelling SE down the Cali coast. Wth

That was what the Carolina crusher did

[WEATHER53]

Just 10 more days away