cbmclean Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That vortex sitting in Canada is promoting low pressures to our north and enhancing the westerlies under it and causing the mass exodus of cold before the storm. Could change. But that's why I'd rager no PV at all over a badly placed one. "rager no" = "rather have no"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah probably not the best idea...real sensitive issue (and one that can sink a thread in a heartbeat, lol) There is actually a whole forum devoted to it on here. I hardly ever go over there though. I imagine the flame wars must be epic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And @psuhoffman I agree that this MJO wave from hell wasnt forseeable. Subseasonal forecating is still really bad globally. It’s a major weakness amongst all major world met organizations. And it’s pretty unlikely we stay stuck in phases 4-6 forever or much longer. But this wave will sink a solid 4-5 weeks of winter, even if it’s not prime climo, it’s when we usually get something... And sometimes we need those extra 4-5 weeks to get something and/or to get our rotten luck/close misses out of the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 13 minutes ago, cbmclean said: "rager no" = "rather have no"? Yea I can't type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 On the brighter side, Eps looks pretty good to my eye for the 3rd based on what I can see on TT. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: On the brighter side, Eps looks pretty good to my eye for the 3rd based on what I can see on TT. Looking at WB and yeah it looks to have improved. Stronger pressure anomalies with a distinct shortwave now showing up at 500s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 18 minutes ago, cbmclean said: There is actually a whole forum devoted to it on here. I hardly ever go over there though. I imagine the flame wars must be epic. Yeah I ain't ABOUT to step foot in that one! lolol (although I may peak just to be nosy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: On the brighter side, Eps looks pretty good to my eye for the 3rd based on what I can see on TT. It's also moving the PV off the pole way faster then previously (as bob predicted) and around day 12-13 it's trying to get the nao negative again. Last couple days aren't out yet but a better run so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Hey, 12z EPS isn’t bad at all for the Jan 3rd-4th threat. More then I expected to see at least. Better then 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 @WxUSAF yea it's out to 324 and I like where the EPS is going. -nao developing. Pretty good epo ridge going. (Shhh don't tell snowgoose) PV off the pole finally. Heights falling across the eastern Conus. I'll endorse it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF yea it's out to 324 and I like where the EPS is going. -nao developing. Pretty good epo ridge going. (Shhh don't tell snowgoose) PV off the pole finally. Heights falling across the eastern Conus. I'll endorse it. Good to hear after that exploding dumpster fire on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 There are ways to get the 3/4 to work. Easiest is a more progressive system instead of cut off so it rides the trough before that PV to our north extracates the cold air from the east. Another would be to get that system in Canada further east but that's a tougher sell. I'd root progressive wave but amplified enough to not be suppressed. Thread the needle. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Good to hear after that exploding dumpster fire on the GEFS. It's a "men's wearhouse" run. You're gonna like the way it looks. Ends with -epo,-nao trough in the east. Stj undercutting. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I would think we start seeing some modest changes to the lr in the next few days....I dont think anyone believes that the MJO will die in phase 6. Once the euro picks up on this and also picks up on some degree HLB due to the strat warm the chips will start to fall into place....imo. Right now it pretty much agrees with it's own MJO forecast....12z eps starting to change the lr look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 @WxUSAF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Rock solid EPS run right there. Seems to not favor another pac puke. Ens picking up on another threat centered around the 8th-9th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF yea it's out to 324 and I like where the EPS is going. -nao developing. Pretty good epo ridge going. (Shhh don't tell snowgoose) PV off the pole finally. Heights falling across the eastern Conus. I'll endorse it. "I'm PSU and I've approved this model run" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Lol the ups and downs of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF That’s f-king gorgeous right there. Let’s keep moving toward that now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s f-king gorgeous right there. Let’s keep moving toward that now. Now can we keep even some semblance of that as we get closer is the magic question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now can we keep even some semblance of that as we get closer is the magic question... I'm convinced that is where we will end up as soon as we get the mjo out of phases 3-6. It's just a matter of when. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s f-king gorgeous right there. Let’s keep moving toward that now. I’m going to pretend pages 54-56 don’t exist. Move forward only. Never look back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s f-king gorgeous right there. Let’s keep moving toward that now. We abscond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF That's weird! Cold in Europe now. No way in hell that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1078743478446800897?s=20 CPC on board with a colder look from 1/12-1/25 thanks to the MJO progression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm convinced that is where we will end up as soon as we get the mjo out of phases 3-6. It's just a matter of when. Now pardon my ignorance onthe MJO and it's phases, but...is there like, a record as to the longest it's ever stayed in one phase before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, Scraff said: I’m going to pretend pages 54-56 don’t exist. Move forward only. Never look back. Those pages can just get lost in the throes of a daughter vortice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't know why they are dry. I'm really confused what a current GOES satellite shot has to do with a mid-late January CPC outlook? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm really confused what a current GOES satellite shot has to do with a mid-late January CPC outlook? It's a wet pattern at the mid-latitudes nonstop since April (El Nino). It's a small point, but they are putting too much emphasis on the MJO and AO. (I decided not to respond about CPC forecasts.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I'm pretty happy with the 12z eps and the differences from 0z. The most noticeable height differences between the 2 runs is higher heights over GL, deeper eastern trough, bigger ridge in the EPO region, and the trop PV near Siberia is much weaker. We really need to hope the weeklies week 3 is right with timing and placement and 12z EPS was def a step towards the week 3 look. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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