pasnownut Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I doubt it. The problem is the GFS doesn't know whether to sh*t or sing from one run to the other. Even if something magical happen, it's precarious and will be gone on the next run. The run to run shifts at h5 are comical. And to that exact point is why a agree that one should only put so much weight in an op run that can have 3-400 mile swings from one run to the next beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct. I hope it just slides out to sea. I'm tired of all of this rain. Rain deform bands in the heart of winter with a closed ULL are the best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Best part about a delayed winter though is if it kicks in it feels great because it packs a lot into a shorter window making it more exciting. I remain hopeful but skeptical Best part about a delayed Winter is before you know it it's warm. You go right into the next good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 The 12z ICON was an interesting run, lol. That’d be a new way to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Best part about a delayed winter though is if it kicks in it feels great because it packs a lot into a shorter window making it more exciting. I remain hopeful but skeptical you should be skeptical but hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, Ji said: you should be skeptical but hopeful That's my after 4pm mood 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 JMA update from Ben Seems to match the weeklies and the overall progression from others, so that is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, frd said: JMA update from Ben Seems to match the weeklies and the overall progression from others, so that is a plus. newsflash--its suppose to get cold in January...its like saying models show warmup in July 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I do think Jan 3-4 is our best shot since the Carolina Crusher.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 I tend to feel that Ventrice knows his stuff when it comes to MJO, that is his baby afterall. So, I present you this. Should ease some concerns : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 this isnt the greatest look but most people would take a closed ULL and a -NEG NAO in the first week of January. Pacific looks dreadful though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Ji, CMC has an extrapolated d11-12 storm. Would be cold powder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rain deform bands in the heart of winter with a closed ULL are the best And oh look! It starts on a Friday...again, lol When was the last time we had this many Fri/Sat rainstorms like this? What is it with that particular day??? Absolutely insane... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm with you. No need to be overly pessimistic and whiny as this train wreck of a forum has been, but your mention of experience is a good one. In my experience, delayed is denied. But, I'm still in wait and see mode. Randy, of concern to me are the posts not only in this subforum but others as well irt how the SSWE is in unchartered territory and we wont really know the true effects for another week to 14 days. But they mostly go on to say that things are still on track for a favorable pattern change by mid month. I dunno....sounds contradictory to me. I think the safest assumption would be if this SSWE is truly a rare event then all bets are off going forward. Going to remain cautiously optimistic for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Ji, CMC has an extrapolated d11-12 storm. Would be cold powder too we need something man....we literally cant get it snow during winter months. November and March snow is BS hahaha....we need a flawed event....like in the late 80s where we got a foot of heavy wet snow after reaching 55 degrees on that same day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 So...what are the chances we can stretch the Niño into next winter, in case we need another do over? Lol I mean, if things don't turn around...I'm gonna start calling this a lame-duck el niño! Like 1994-95...there but has no snow power because of something getting in it's way...(MJO this time? Has that been the culprit in previous weak ninos?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: I do think Jan 3-4 is our best shot since the Carolina Crusher.. Long shot for sure. No cold air at all. I miss November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: we need something man....we literally cant get it snow during winter months. November and March snow is BS hahaha....we need a flawed event....like in the late 80s where we got a foot of heavy wet snow after reaching 55 degrees on that same day lol We need an April Fool's Day blizzard this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: we need something man....we literally cant get it snow during winter months. November and March snow is BS hahaha....we need a flawed event....like in the late 80s where we got a foot of heavy wet snow after reaching 55 degrees on that same day lol I'm still confident we pull off something before the 15th. Might not be pretty but will help our sanity anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 58 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Dude, that map had me at like 18 to 20. Climo here (OKV) is about 30". Doesn't matter, its surely wrong anyway. And I never said Jan 20, you are putting words in my mouth. I would put that line more towards valentines than Jan. I zoomed in and your right it has you at about 20-21". But Stephens city average is not 30. Its closer to 26. I used to have a really detailed snow mean map generated by a long term analysis of snowfall that showed the snowshadow zone you live in well. It's also evident here on this map lwx produced many moons ago. But either way getting 20" in 4 weeks is nothing to toss. There is still a solid month of snow climo left when they run ends to get the 10" or so more to put you into "great snow year" territory. Keep in mind as well your median is closer to 17" not 26. Finally keep in mind that map is straight 10-1. The reason your area averages more snow than D.C. is in large part due to higher ratios from colder boundary conditions. I went through the 5 day panels. There are several systems that track perfect. You get slightly less snow at 10-1 but in reality you would be the jack zone with high ratios while D.C. Is getting 8-1 slop. So chill out. This is one such example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And oh look! It starts on a Friday...again, lol When was the last time we had this many Fri/Sat rainstorms like this? What is it with that particular day??? Absolutely insane... 1998. We had so many perfect track rain storms that year. Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: 1998. We had so many perfect track rain storms that year. Ugh Ah, that was that ugly 1997-98 super nino, wasn't it? Lol (but even that year probably couldn't hold a candle to this year!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1998. We had so many perfect track rain storms that year. UghThat was a super Nino but maybe a normal Nino now is like a super Nino in 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1998. We had so many perfect track rain storms that year. Ugh First crack in the facade 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Here was the euro a week or so ago for new years lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm still confident we pull off something before the 15th. Might not be pretty but will help our sanity anyways Sometimes, sanity is not pretty! ("A little madness now and then, is cherished by the wisest men!") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Here was the euro a week or so ago for new years lol Got the storm correct probably just not the precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm still confident we pull off something before the 15th. Might not be pretty but will help our sanity anyways 3-4 days ago, it was really looking like the period after today's cutter from say the 30th-10th or so was going to be a solid step down to our incoming expected epicness. Now instead we have another major cutter on New Year's and then another gush of Pac puke to deal with. The Nina-ness of the December 10-January 10 period is undeniable. It's pretty sh-tty frankly. Now we're back to the end of the 2 week period for a (seemingly) sustained good pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Here was the euro a week or so ago for new years lol Imagine that. An op run at 10 days not verifying. Who'da thunk it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Imagine that. An op run at 10 days not verifying. Who'da thunk it?Not only didn't it verify....its like the map of another planet. It's not even close. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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