showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We do. Nothing happening till the 15th. So change my return flight from Vegas from the 19th to the 15th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Nice pickup on the 06Z GEFS snowfall means through the 16 days compared to the overnight. Also see a nice pickup for the period right after the New year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: So change my return flight from Vegas from the 19th to the 15th? In all seriousness, I think the period from NYD through the 7th is interesting. I still think the storm around the 1st favors mostly rain, but a following wave may take a more favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 6z FV3 is snow to ice to rain for NYD followed by a light snow event a few days later. Continues to suggest we have multiple chances the first week of the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: In all seriousness, I think the period from NYD through the 7th is interesting. I still think the storm around the 1st favors mostly rain, but a following wave may take a more favorable track. I'm with you, though I do like the period right after the New Year. Think the models are still evolving with that so let's see where we stand in a few days. I would be surprised if I haven't seen measurable snow by the time we fly out on the 10th. Will be a nail biter in Vegas though. If I see something big coming up while I am there it will be a fight not to try to talk my wife in returning early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think some can't see the forest for the trees here (for you youngsters that have no idea what that saying means https://www.dictionary.com/browse/can-t-see-the-forest-for-the-trees ). The broad over all pattern has not changed run to run, it is the smaller scale features and the nuances on the larger scale features that are changing. And there is no way the models are going to get these things right at range and they will constantly be shifting these around. Needless to say, some of these runs that have been Meh for some, or panic inducing in others, have looked perfectly fine to me when you look at the overall picture. The overall picture says odds are favorable and that has not changed whatsoever from run to run. Been meaning to write something up to show what I mean but been a little busy with other things. Maybe later today. Yeah I hope my posts yesterday didn't agitate the worried and panic prone here lol. It started out with a simple post making reference to WXUSAF's 'bad chilli' comment from the day before. But then I got pressed for details . I even made a point to say it was nothing to worry over. I expect the 12z EPS run today will not take a s**p b**k, and will in fact trend further towards the meteorologically impossible -EPO/-NAO look. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 9 hours ago, stormtracker said: I am going to ban the phrase “step back”. FREE SPEECH!!! FREE SPEECH!!! Don't you go trampling on my First Amendment rights. So you better take a 'step back' before you do something you might regret. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: FREE SPEECH!!! FREE SPEECH!!! Don't you go trampling on my First Amendment rights. So you better take a step back before you do something you might regret. No step backs on free speech! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Good morning all! 1st week of January is starting to hold some decent promise. More importantly, how are the daughter vortices coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning all! 1st week of January is starting to hold some decent promise. More importantly, how are the daughter vortices coming along? You rang? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 32 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning all! 1st week of January is starting to hold some decent promise. More importantly, how are the daughter vortices coming along? one is a little bigger than the other. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 40 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning all! 1st week of January is starting to hold some decent promise. More importantly, how are the daughter vortices coming along? Judah all in on daughters being born 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 It's going to be tough to get anything but a mixed event if waves are strong/organized. There's is nothing to keep the storms from cutting and the euro showed that pretty loud and clear. We need weak/progressive waves to make a run at our area to get all snow. Can't really guess right for first week of Jan until next weekend. Until then it's going to be a model roller coaster. The general setup is progressive and ops are on throwing darts/shotgun mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS didn't take a step back Looks good in the temp department but also looks like it would be on the dry side with dominant northern stream. Much better than a shutout pattern of course but not the kind of longwave pattern that would keep the juicy southern stream action going. I'm not very picky so anything other than a shutout is fine. It's not a KU look so Ji won't be thrilled with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: We do. Nothing happening till the 15th. So what happens in this subforum if say we are unicorn searching for this pattern that has promise and hope but said pattern change gets here like has happened in the past and it fails to produce? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So what happens in this subforum if say we are unicorn searching for this pattern that has promise and hope but said pattern change gets here like has happened in the past and it fails to produce? Asking for a friend. Lol you said if 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks good in the temp department but also looks like it would be on the dry side with dominant northern stream. Much better than a shutout pattern of course but not the kind of longwave pattern that would keep the juicy southern stream action going. I'm not very picky so anything other than a shutout is fine. It's not a KU look so Ji won't be thrilled with it. One thing I've learned about Ji over the years is that he doesn't actually enjoy snow he only loves the chase. When the actual event is happening he couldn't care less 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So what happens in this subforum if say we are unicorn searching for this pattern that has promise and hope but said pattern change gets here like has happened in the past and it fails to produce? Asking for a friend. I will say it seems we do better when we sneak into events within 5 days vs chasing the unicorn pattern... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: One thing I've learned about Ji over the years is that he doesn't actually enjoy snow he only loves the chase. When the actual event is happening he couldn't care less Truth. Looks like we're stepping towards getting into a big chase pattern but as always... it takes longer than we want. I'd be surprised if we got to mid Jan without 1-2 events that exceed at least 1". Long range guidance gets bashed a lot but for the wrong reasons. There's a big difference between a long range ens h5 mean and how sensible weather plays out. Give us a 2 week pattern that isn't a shutout in the heart of winter and we can fumble and stumble and still come out with something to show for it. So far it looks like the first week of Jan is breaking in our favor. If the second week does as well then we're getting some snowfall around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 A lot of warmth in Europe this year. Last year it was the central Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: FREE SPEECH!!! FREE SPEECH!!! Don't you go trampling on my First Amendment rights. So you better take a 'step back' before you do something you might regret. Considering banning the following also: xxx looks "tasty" "we take" . any post from Chuck I'm taking other suggestions as well. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Considering banning the following also: xxx looks "tasty" "we take" . any post from Chuck I'm taking other suggestions as well. Who on here says.... I'm taking other suggestions as well....that's dumb 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 12z gfs looks appetizing and we abscond 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Interesting look for that big ULL this run...certainly going to be some confluence for it to work with. Much different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Considering banning the following also: xxx looks "tasty" "we take" . any post from Chuck I'm taking other suggestions as well. Don’t forget “roads caving” and “friendsgiving” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Interesting look for that big ULL this run...certainly going to be some confluence for it to work with. Much different look Not gonna say I hate that squeeze play look of overrunning and cold bleeding in. Push that northern high a few ticks south and it’s game on. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 One thing I've learned about Ji over the years is that he doesn't actually enjoy snow he only loves the chase. When the actual event is happening he couldn't care lessThat sums it up....I actually get more excited seeing it on the computer screen! But I also used to chase snow pre marriage to erie pa and elmira NY lol. Marriage ruined everything haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gfs looks appetizing and we abscond legit lol'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Who on here says.... I'm taking other suggestions as well....that's dumb i hate you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 12z gfs looks appetizing and we abscond still laughing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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