midatlanticweather Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 @Ji Scale: SN+ for at least 5 hours SN for a total of 10 hours Measurable snow starts at 6" otherwise it is a nuisance event A snow storm is anything above 12" unless we have wicked winds and SN+ for most of the snow between 6 and 12" A flip to anything but snow could be considered a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 @frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays. I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: @Ji Scale: SN+ for at least 5 hours SN for a total of 10 hours Measurable snow starts at 6" otherwise it is a nuisance event A snow storm is anything above 12" unless we have wicked winds and SN+ for most of the snow between 6 and 12" A flip to anything but snow could be considered a fail. By his standards he would be unhappy much of the time even if he lived in New England. He needs to move to somewhere in the mountains up north or out west to get the kind of climate he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays. I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. More like a sudden flu like thing, as long as I bounce back by Christmas I am OK with that. I hope you are doing better. Not sure frankly what is worse , a 24 bug then over, ( feeling drained and lost weight ) versus a 3 to 4 day thing. On the bright side, losing those pounds Bob, you can have triple servings ! As for the pattern all I see is steady progress. I am at the moment focsing on the movement of the MJO and the SOI and seeing whether we get coupling in Jan. Also, the evolution of the blocking at the top. and of course the silly strat element. ie official reversal , split, etc. Very cool to see the daily outcomes and changes as we progress in time. Seems our first real target may be Jan 4 th to Jan 9th for something significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, frd said: Seems our first real target may be Jan 4 th to Jan 9th for something significant. I'm pretty interested in the period a few days before and after NYE. It's messy but I'm seeing enough confluence and semi blocking. A bit of a battleground between warmth exiting and cold pressing. We could end up on the winning side of something. Like a snow to rain or rain to snow type of deal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm pretty interested in the period a few days before and after NYE. It's messy but I'm seeing enough confluence and semi blocking. A bit of a battleground between warmth exiting and cold pressing. We could end up on the winning side of something. Like a snow to rain or rain to snow type of deal Or a 0z euro type deal EPS is supportive of the op, but seems to be playing the nondispersive game lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays. I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. Probably Noro. I got that last winter. Literally takes it out of you for a day or so. Feel like crawling in a hole. I had really low energy for a day or 2 after. Contagious as hell too. Almost always works its way through everyone in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Probably Noro. I got that last winter. Literally takes it out of you for a day or so. Feel like crawling in a hole. I had really low energy for a day or 2 after. Contagious as hell too. Almost always works its way through everyone in the house. Is not the Noro Virus the thing that hits Cruise ships ? ( and you are correct , super super conagious ) I had it once I thought I was on my way out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 12z GFS has the NYE event. Would be a nice storm to start the year. Models have been keyed on this time period for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, frd said: Is not the Noro Virus the thing that hits Cruise ships ? ( and you are correct , super super conagious ) I had it once I thought I was on my way out Not sure how common it is on ships specifically, but because there are a lot of people in relatively tight quarters, if someone comes on board with it I am sure it can end up being very unpleasant for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 I am sure most of us here know this, but for those who do not, when you read that temps went up a certain amount based on the SSW event remember, those are anomalies, not absolute temps. Still remarkable though! Better explained by Jack below: 1 reply0 retweets1 like Reply 1 Retweet Like 1 Direct message Jack Sillin | weather.us @JackSillin Dec 21 More amazing isn't it! Those values are anomalies though, not absolute temps. So it's 158 degrees above normal, not actually 158 degrees. Still very cold up there of course, but this is a remarkable heat flux event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GFS has the NYE event. Would be a nice storm to start the year. Models have been keyed on this time period for days. Thats perfect. Lets lock that one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GFS has the NYE event. Would be a nice storm to start the year. Models have been keyed on this time period for days. @Bob Chill mentioned this, did this come in colder from the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 This is a pretty significant Stratosphere warming, 1500, it only gets up to 1600-2000 max. The cold around is residual trend from 2016 and 2017 at this time being the coldest 10mb on record since 1948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thats perfect. Lets lock that one in. Things begin to change in our favor at this point. Maybe a better CAD signature will show up , and this might trend even colder in the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, frd said: Things begin to change in our favor at this point. Maybe a better CAD signature will show up , and this might trend even colder in the next few days. Suppression. Congrats NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thats perfect. Lets lock that one in. Yeah baby!! Always great to be the bullseye 10 days out Seriously, it’s good to see the signals are coming into better focus. I think we rock in January big time. Might even have to make a toilet paper and bourbon run in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Here's an example of an extreme case. What I like about 65-66 is it was an El Nino that had a RNA December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, frd said: Things begin to change in our favor at this point. Maybe a better CAD signature will show up , and this might trend even colder in the next few days. IMHO, Doesn’t need colder or it will be pressed south. 534 thickness is just fine and that high is good as depicted unless it’s a sub 980 bomb that plows into an arctic high. Good as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Yeah baby!! Always great to be the bullseye 10 days out Seriously, it’s good to see the signals are coming into better focus. I think we rock in January big time. Might even have to make a toilet paper and bourbon run in the coming days. Realistically that depiction seems pretty low probability looking upstairs. That window also might a tad early- although not impossible. The way things appear to be evolving right now, somewhere around Jan 5-6 might be more reasonable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Be happy that it's not last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair there was some (SOME) truth to what he said. If you get a beast epo ridge (a full latitude ridge) then it would be almost impossible to have a -nao as the natural buckling of the jet in response would favor a trough there. But nothing has shown a monster epo full latitude ridge and the run we were referencing had no epo ridge at all and so his comments made no sense in context. Maybe he had a point that I just wasn't getting. That was pretty much what I meant, the EPO ridge that goes to nearly the North Pole. You’re correct that as of now nothing shows that but I do believe either last winter or the previous winter around this time the long range ensembles showed a solid PNA ridge over the western CONUS with a -NAO. Sure enough that eventually transitioned over the ensuing week to a neutral to negative PNA and a massive EPO type ridge off the coast which didn’t do us much good. It wasn’t that first time since 2012 or 13 we had seen that happen either. The tendency since the 2010-11 winter has been more for those EPO off the west coast ridges than it has been the positive PNA Montana ridge. The PDO has likely been the reason why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Sure enough that eventually transitioned over the ensuing week to a neutral to negative PNA and a massive EPO type ridge off the coast which didn’t do us much good. It wasn’t that first time since 2012 or 13 we had seen that happen either. The tendency since the 2010-11 winter has been more for those EPO off the west coast ridges than it has been the positive PNA Montana ridge. The PDO has likely been the reason why. So a week from now...you're saying we could see a different look? (and the PDO...is that the same as previous years?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 51 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z GFS has the NYE event. Would be a nice storm to start the year. Models have been keyed on this time period for days. How are we getting snow with the low so far south? (Newbie Question) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, LortonWx said: How are we getting snow with the low so far south? (Newbie Question) The shortwave responsible for the snow here is embedded in the northern stream. The low to our south is strung out southern energy. Very complicated "busy" flow in both streams on tap. Not a chance in hell the gfs has it right yet but the general idea of active flow and enough cold pressing down could work many different ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Not sure what the real stats are now for verification on the main models, as I feel at this time they are having a hard time, but I believe the Euro has been doing best. I wonder if this means its MJO forecast is correct , as it moves it along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 25 minutes ago, frd said: Not sure what the real stats are now for verification on the main models, as I feel at this time they are having a hard time, but I believe the Euro has been doing best. They are 100% correct when they lock into a rainstorm at 10 days. They are 0% if they show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Or a 0z euro type deal EPS is supportive of the op, but seems to be playing the nondispersive game lately. I just looked at the 0z euro. Heh, yea...that kind of storm. Models all have a similar theme coming up. Surely not a long lead lock it up kind of deal but it's a pretty common type of setup for us to get some sort of snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 12z has the New Years storm again with a little different progression. Heavy stuff stays south into Southern Va/NC....these always trend north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts