87storms Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2-3" is acceptable, but grass coverer has always been my general threshold. looks like the midwest is in for some fun tracking the next 2 weeks and then maybe we get into our pattern. i agree with chill that if the pattern becomes favorable starting early january, you really can't ask for better timing. that's the start of our wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not at all. The NAO is not some esoteric thing- the impact a -NAO has on our chances of major winter storm occurrences is well understood. I was speaking in terms of frequency, but in fairness SSW, while not as understood, still can have every bit...or more impact on bringing cold to lower latitudes. Not sure how that is disputable ( and I’m not looking to argue). Just pointing out that it holds weight....even though it’s much more of a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Today's run was the kind of step back I don't mind as much. I agree with Bob and you that this is a step progression. Today's euro is still heading the way we want. Retrograde that trough in the PAC slightly and it gets good fast. Yesterday's run was more a complete "lost the pattern progression completely" burp. I fully expect it to take some time to get to the good stuff. Doesn't mean we can't luck into an event during the transition. But as long as we're heading the right way I'm content. Kinda lol at the people acting like winter can't be good if it starts January 15. How often do we get a wall to wall winter? Would 2010 not have been remembered as good had the December hecs missed? People talk about 87 like it was good but nothing happened until late January. Most admit 2015 was good. But now it has to snow early or the winter sucks? People are entitled to their opinion. I have no right to tell them what to feel. But I'm not nearly as picky about when my snow comes. But I don't like being miserable all the time. Truth. Y’all need to think about bolded. We just don’t live in locals that afford us the option to be picky. Take what we can when we can and be thankful when it’s snowing. Big/epic patterns are elusive and just few and far between. Think about the ROI on our searches for epic patterns over the years. It’s a labor of love that’s for sure. Surely they are awesome when they happen but if that’s your bar....you’ll be happier once you lower it a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 18z FV3 ice/sleet to rain for NYE. 18z GFS has a minor snow event shortly after the new year. Goes along with Bob’s theory of seeing some frozen before the mega flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z FV3 ice/sleet to rain for NYE. 18z GFS has a minor snow event shortly after the new year. Goes along with Bob’s theory of seeing some frozen before the mega flip. Exactly. How many times have we had to "wait our turn" as we exit a hideous pattern and transition to one than puts us back in the game? Jan can be very forgiving. A track to our west can deliver a respectable event. Quite a few "flawed" setups can put snow on the ground now that we're hitting prime climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Bob wasn't saying we won't get a warning event this winter. He was just saying the next 2 weeks during the pattern transition favors minor events. What's wrong with appetizers while we wait for the main course? Well, the thing is, for both the MA and even more so the SE, there is no guarantee that the main course ever gets here, so it is always stressful. I don't chose to feel that way, but there is nothing I can do to control it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I am going to ban the phrase “step back”. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 0z gfs is a step forward from 18z for NYE 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 @Ji kinda reminds me of the model runs from Dec last year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 @Ji kinda reminds me of the model runs from Dec last year So it will fizzle out to nothing by Monday...o r become pd3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Best part is cmc looks awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Best part is cmc looks awful Doom and gloom... nothing new here move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Very nice look for NYE on 00z GFS... HP in perfect position for snow Looks intriguing for the next system as well Jan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 40 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I am going to ban the phrase “step back”. Ban that and the "" emoji...mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Storm #2 trying to hold on to cad at 240 H5 looks like it's not going to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 to 6 for NYE storm per 00z GFS... we take and run... nice hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Very nice look for NYE on 00z GFS... HP in perfect position for snow Looks intriguing for the next system as well Jan 2Hard to score jan 2 with a very positive nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji kinda reminds me of the model runs from Dec last year So it will fizzle out to nothing by Monday...o r become pd3 lol Scoring on the front side of a pattern flip would be a good sign. It's all we have right now so may as well get to work obsessing over it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 PV split looking great lolhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018122300&fh=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Scoring on the front side of a pattern flip would be a good sign. It's all we have right now so may as well get to work obsessing over it I'd take it but storm 2 has some great potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 No love from the 00z Euro tonight at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 EPS didn't take a step back 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS didn't take a step back It took a huge leap forward. Now that's more like it. Hopefully 12z today wont take a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It took a huge leap forward. Now that's more like it. Hopefully 12z today wont take a step back. We have time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We have time We do. Nothing happening till the 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 The overnight EPS snowfall means increased somewhat for the period on or just shortly after New Years compared to the 12Z though we are still not seeing the totals we were just a couple of days ago. The last couple of runs the EPS has started moving towards the idea of a coastal low during this time frame. Actually a nice setup except for one thing. Have the 50/50 in place to lock in the high to our north but we are also seeing low pressure over the lakes which is not only eroding the high to its west it is also driving in warm air to screw up the temps. Take that GL low out, weaken it or delay it and it gets interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Less digging at H5 on the NYE storm at 6z. Hope that's a blip and not a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 10 hours ago, pasnownut said: I was speaking in terms of frequency, but in fairness SSW, while not as understood, still can have every bit...or more impact on bringing cold to lower latitudes. Not sure how that is disputable ( and I’m not looking to argue). Just pointing out that it holds weight....even though it’s much more of a rarity. Gotcha. A legit -NAO has been scarce in recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It took a huge leap forward. Now that's more like it. Hopefully 12z today wont take a step back. Think some can't see the forest for the trees here (for you youngsters that have no idea what that saying means https://www.dictionary.com/browse/can-t-see-the-forest-for-the-trees ). The broad over all pattern has not changed run to run, it is the smaller scale features and the nuances on the larger scale features that are changing. And there is no way the models are going to get these things right at range and they will constantly be shifting these around. Needless to say, some of these runs that have been Meh for some, or panic inducing in others, have looked perfectly fine to me when you look at the overall picture. The overall picture says odds are favorable and that has not changed whatsoever from run to run. Been meaning to write something up to show what I mean but been a little busy with other things. Maybe later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Ji> gfs is a disaster <Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts